1. Trading in a growing world Northern Territory Cattleman’s Association Industry Conference, Darwin Dr Andrew Stoeckel Visiting Fellow, CAMA, Australian National University 28 March, 2014

3. The all-important consumer!

4. …. who is also a voter

5. The Golden Math ProfitRevenueCosts = _ Marketing Exchange rate Trade barriers CompetitorsIncomes Price X Sales volume Fixed costs Variable costs

6. Another 1 billion middle class consumers by 2030 China http://info.publicintelligence.net/GlobalTrends2030.pdf India Other Asia Japan USA EU Others Shares of Global middle-class consumption, 2000-2050

7. China’s Booming Middle Class Source: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/3/china%20middle%20class%20kharas/03_china_middle_class_kharas.pdf

8. Global food projections in White Paper

9. The good news: enormous growth in beef demand http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf

10. Met by import demand for beef, not feed grain http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf

11. … and the less good news: China faces some enormous challenges Chinese funding costs Source: Yiping Huang http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook- 2014/Documents/presentation-slides/yiping-huang-presentation.pdf http://www.ft.com/m/html/expandable-picture.htm?d=true

12. China real effective exchange rate: 40% appreciation over last 8 years 40%

13. China’s Demographic Transition

15. Japan’s massive debt burden http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1ccc6df2-a86f-11e3-a946-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2wvACigtJ

16. Eurozone banks in trouble http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-ag-160314.html

17. Public debt as percent of GDP

18. …. Nor do we have the world market to ourselves http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf

20. Barriers to trade Asia is where growth is, our part of world and where barriers high Korean FTA to see barriers come down to achieve parity with the USA Trade Minister Robb currently in Japan negotiating FTA China FTA talks but our view on in-bound investment TPP talks but no ‘fast track’ for President All FTA’s are preferential and also because all meats are substitutable there is a lot of ‘switching’ of trade and net gains not as big as if multilateral free trade secured.

21. Productivity slowdown is global http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6cb5aece-7dee-11e3-b409- 00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2r04smn9thttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6cb5aece-7dee-11e3-b409- 00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2r04smn9t from http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/TED3.pdf

22. The real competition is from resources sector http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2013/jun/pdf/bu-0613-1.pdf

23. What can marketing do?

24. Integrity of the supply chain is critical Have to ensure that marketers can consistently deliver on the attribute of the product they promote Need a mix of individual and generic promotion Input supplier ProducerProcessor Wholesaler & retailer Consumer Product flow Information and communication

25. Input supplier ProducerProcessor Wholesaler & retailer Consumer Product flow Information and communication

26. Key messages Long term prospects for beef promising Expect short term volatility as global monetary stimulus unwinds Productivity problem is global and governments will finally have to tackle hard structural change decisions Trade liberalisation part of that, eventually Japan included Absolute integrity of supply chain critical so marketers can explore, promote and deliver the attributes that are valuable Success is a matter of getting a host of small things right