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Plop, Plop, Fizz, Fizz, Oh What A Relief It Is!
TeleSoft Annual Meeting Bill Brady Head of Global Technology Corporate Finance Credit Suisse First Boston Technology Group November 9, 2001
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Agenda Changing Leaders in the Technology Market
Taming the Volatile Equity Markets The New M&A Environment 4. What to Expect in the Future 5. Implications for Liquidity Options 6. CSFB Technology Group - The Clear Leader Four companies fell off the chart from last year: Seagate, Ascend, Parametric, & Micron Technology Four Companies were added: Nokia, HBOC, AOL, & PeopleSoft.
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Dramatic Growth in New Companies and Market Cap Technology Companies and Market Cap by Size Now vs. 1990 # Companies Market Cap ($Bn) Category > $1 Bn $100MM - 1Bn < $100MM 322 $2,807 # Companies Market Cap ($Bn) 582 $210 33 $194 118 $38 759 $23 134 $5 1990 2001 All 285 $237 1663 $3,040 16.5% CAGR 24.7% CAGR Source: Factset based on data from 4/9/90 and 10/31/2001.
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The Mighty Have Fallen… Top 40 US-Traded Technology Companies 1 year ago
Market Value ($BN) Market Value ($BN) 10/31/2000 10/31/2001 %Change 10/31/2000 10/31/2001 %Change % % Cisco Systems Microsoft Intel Nokia EMC Oracle Sun Microsystems IBM Nortel Networks AOL Time Warner Ericsson Hewlett-Packard Texas Instruments Lucent Technologies JDS Uniphase Dell Siemens * Juniper Networks Veritas Alcatel $387.4 366.1 302.9 186.3 216.9 220.4 178.5 174.8 136.6 117.0 110.9 90.6 84.9 78.9 78.3 76.4 75.5 61.9 57.6 57.5 $123.9 313.2 164.3 96.2 27.2 75.4 33.0 187.7 18.6 209.0 34.4 32.6 48.5 22.9 10.5 62.6 43.1 7.1 11.3 16.1 (68.0) (14.4) (45.7) (48.4) (87.5) (65.8) (81.5) 7.4 (86.4) 78.6 (69.0) (64.0) (42.9) (71.0) (86.6) (18.1) (88.5) (80.4) (72.0) Motorola * Broadcom Compaq TSMC Phillips Qualcomm STMicroelectronics * Siebel Applied Materials Automatic Data Processing * Network Appliance * Marconi PLC * I2 Technologies NEC * Yahoo * Ariba * Palm * Ciena SAP * Gemstar TOTAL $54.5 52.3 51.8 51.3 48.7 46.0 44.2 43.2 41.2 38.2 35.7 34.0 33.2 32.7 31.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 28.1 $3867.4 $36.2 8.6 14.8 42.3 29.6 37.4 25.0 7.5 27.8 32.2 4.4 1.2 2.0 15.2 6.2 0.8 1.4 5.3 18.2 8.4 $1862.2 (33.6) (83.6) (71.4) (17.5) (42.3) (23.2) (45.7) (83.0) (36.6) (21.8) (88.5) (96.6) (94.1) (54.2) (81.0) (97.4) (95.4) (82.4) (39.1) (70.1) (51.8) Four companies fell off the chart from last year: Seagate, Ascend, Parametric, & Micron Technology Four Companies were added: Nokia, HBOC, AOL, & PeopleSoft. Technology Group * Companies not included in 2001 top 40 list.
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This Year’s Leader Board Top 40 US-Traded Technology Companies Now
10/31/2001 Market Value ($BN) 10/31/2001 Market Value ($BN) Microsoft IBM Intel AOL Time Warner Cisco Systems Nokia Oracle Dell Texas Instruments Siemens TSMC Qualcomm Motorola Ericsson Sun Microsystems Hewlett-Packard Automatic Data Processing Electronic Data Systems Philips Applied Materials $313.2 187.7 164.3 137.8 123.9 96.2 75.4 62.6 48.5 43.1 42.3 37.4 36.2 34.4 33.0 32.6 32.2 30.2 29.6 27.8 EMC * First Data Corp STMicroelectronics Lucent Technologies * UMC Nortel Networks SAP * Computer Associates Alcatel NEC * Maxim Integrated Products Compaq * Ebay * Accenture * Concord EFS * Analog Devices * Micron Technology * Linear Technology Veritas JDS Uniphase $27.2 25.8 25.0 22.9 18.7 18.6 18.2 17.8 16.1 15.2 15.1 14.8 14.3 14.1 13.7 13.6 12.4 11.3 10.5 Four companies fell off the chart from last year: Seagate, Ascend, Parametric, & Micron Technology Four Companies were added: Nokia, HBOC, AOL, & PeopleSoft. * * Companies not included in 2000 top 40 list.
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Moore’s Law of Nasdaq Ran Out of Gas in Y2K
January Present Doubles in 1 year Doubles in 2 years Doubles in 4 years Doubles in 8 years
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Equity New Issue Market Technology Equity & Equity-Related Offerings, 1993-2001
$ Billions 100 168 410 44 366 240 51 27 66 57 49 60 111 221 124 61 35 145 226 40 206 295 78 30 147 96 US and Int’l Technology transactions completed. Source: Securities Data Company as of 10/31/01.
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Performance of Top IPOs of 1999 and 2000
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Continued Volatility Results in Short Market Windows
# of Negative Pre-Announcements (1) (1) 3 weeks into each quarter
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M&A Market Technology Mergers & Acquisitions, 1993-2001
$ Billions YTD # of Deals 35 65 95 120 164 228 487 833 289 Source: Securities Data Company as of 10/31/2001. Incl. Domestic and Int’l transactions, pending or completed, with transaction value >$50MM, excl. share repurchases.
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Perceptions Towards Strategic Transactions Have Changed in This Difficult Market Environment…
THEN: MAY 1999 NOW: OCTOBER 2001 Accretion/Dilution Acquirors willing to accept significant earnings dilution for promise of significant growth opportunity Acquirors typically accept zero to small amount of earnings dilution in exchange for growth prospects Little tolerance for cash burn Valuation Many bidders drove up valuation Public market offered liquidity events for startups, driving up valuation Few acquirors in this market Public market more stringent; therefore, fewer startups obtaining liquidity Time to revenue Revenue could be more than one year away Clear path to revenue and profitability Must be at least in customer trial phase of development Customer base Potential for customers Small base, many in trial stage Highly concentrated revenue Quality, well-financed and diversified customer base with recurring revenue stream
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…Resulting in a Challenging Near-Term Environment
Current Status Consolidation activity has slowed significantly from the torrid pace of early 2000 Operating issues have forced many traditional acquirers to focus internally Market volatility has created uncertainty as to “true values” and hesitancy to make commitments Uncertainty over proper valuation levels remains Many sellers focused on last year’s valuations Valuation analysis has returned to traditional earnings and cash flow based methodologies Consolidators no longer playing with “funny-money” Valuation Public equity markets have become less forgiving of ill conceived or poorly executed transactions Heightened scrutiny of both long term strategic and near term financial implications of any transaction Integration plans must be well thought out and expertly communicated to the market at time of announcement Earnings dilution is a major concern Public Market Scrutiny
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Many Potential Buyers Have Seen Their Share Prices Plummet Over the Last Year
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN STOCK PRICE SINCE MARCH 1, 2000 Comm. Equipment eBusiness Internet Infrastructure Nortel Lucent Alcatel Cisco i2 Ariba C1 Siebel Inktomi Akamai VeriSign InfoSpace Semiconductors Optical Internet JDS Uniphase New Focus Intel Broadcom PMC-Sierra Conexant Sycamore Corvis Amazon Yahoo! AOL eBay Note: Corvis and New Focus data is from IPO Pricing of $36.00 and $20.00, respectively. Let’s not forget the companies that have gone bankrupt:
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SELECTED ACQUIRORS USING CASH AS ACQUISITION CURRENCY
As a Result, Companies Have Begun to Use Cash To Fund Their Acquisitions With stock prices at record lows, the notion that cash is king is being reinforced In particular, large cap companies with depressed P/Es are using cash as their preferred acquisition currency Sellers prefer liquidity in these uncertain times Interest rates are at unprecedented lows Many companies are taking advantage of the convertible market’s tremendous appetite for technology issues to build “war chests” SELECTED ACQUIRORS USING CASH AS ACQUISITION CURRENCY
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VC Returns Under Pressure Cumulative Vintage Year Performance of U. S
VC Returns Under Pressure Cumulative Vintage Year Performance of U.S. Venture Capital Funds Pooled IRR average % (09/30/00) Pooled IRR average % (03/31/01) Pooled IRR average % (12/31/00) Source: Venture Economics Information Services
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Market Rallies and Subsequent Downturns
8/1/82 - 12/13/84 - 10/28/87 - 10/11/90 - 12/9/94 - 10/8/98 - MARKET RALLIES 6/22/83 8/21/87 10/9/89 3/18/94 7/20/98 3/10/00 Length 11 33 24 42 44 17 Trough to Peak: NASDAQ 96% 91% 66% 147% 180% 256% S&P 500 60% 108% 54% 59% 165% 45% Range of S&P 11x – 13x 10x – 22x 11x – 15x 14x – 26x 15x – 29x 28x - 34x 500P/E Multiples (1) AND SUBSEQUENT 6/22/83 - 8/21/87 - 10/9/89 - 3/18/94 - 7/20/98 - 3/10/00 - DOWNTURNS 12/13/84 10/28/87 10/11/90 12/9/94 10/8/98 10/31/01 Length 18 2 12 9 3 20 Peak to Trough: NASDAQ -27% -36% -33% -11% -30% -67% S&P 500 -5% -31% -18% -5% -19% -24% Range of S&P 500 9x – 13x 15x – 20x 14x – 16x 15x – 20x 24x – 28x 23x – 29x P/E Multiples (1) Net Market Move Net Market Move % CAGR % % CAGR % NASDAQ 95% 8.5% 419% 16.1% S&P 500 176% 13.2% 259% 12.3% (1) Trailing P/E multiples.
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Recessions Are Followed by Market Rallies
There have been 5 recessions in the U.S. since 1969 The average recession lasted for 12 months and resulted in a 2% contraction in GDP During recessionary times, the S&P 500 has not demonstrated significant drops, except in ‘73 - ’75 (-23%) Markets begin to recover one quarter before the trough and gain an average of 23% in the following 6 months CSFB Technology Research anticipates that tech sectors should experience a recovery in the next 6 quarters, with a concentration during Q2 - Q3 of 2001 Overviews of Previous Recessions Expected Timing of Recovery by Sector
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Implications Don’t Count On:
Return to “irrational exuberance” any time soon Indefinite losses will be bankable Me-too, undifferentiated companies will be bankable Valuations on private financings will hold up Plan To: Focus on business model, sponsorship, uniqueness, barriers Develop alternative financing plans, merger partners Shift business models to accelerate profitability and cash flow Finance ahead of needs when windows present themselves
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The Bar is Set Higher for IPOs
$2 - 5MM $10MM Time to Profitability Quarters Quarters Valuation Metrics Revenue Multiples P/E Multiples Revenue Base (in quarter going public)
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Equity Private Placement Market Overview
Flat to down rounds Months, not weeks to complete Fully-funded business plans only Fewer buyers 3-5x returns to IPO within 1-2 years
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Current M&A Environment
Strategic rationale for M&A stronger than ever Few deals near-term due to “reality distortion field” Strategic buyers’ currency and confidence reduced Sellers’ value expectations need to adjust Financial buyers’ interest growing Expect strong rebound in M&A as reality sets in
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The Clear Leader in Technology Investment Banking
Total Technology Financing and M&A (Number of Deals) Total Technology Financing and M&A (Dollars in Billions) Notes: Transactions announced 1/1/00 through10/31/01. Includes private placement deals. (1) JP Morgan deals include deals completed by H&Q.
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CSFB: Clear Winners Do Not Need Recounts
Reuters’ Survey of Fund Managers* Ranking Category 1st Place 2nd Place Morgan Stanley DLJ Goldman Sachs Quality of new equity issues Pricing of new equity issues Quality of research product and service in the aftermarket Aftermarket performance of equity issues Equitable allocation of new issue product Due diligence on new issues * In a survey dated July 19, 2000, Reuter’s surveyed 75 of the largest institutional managers of active US equity funds. Responses have been weighted by fund size.
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