1. Dr. Eric W. Harmsen Associate Professor, Dept. of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering email: eharmsen@uprm.com The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural in Puerto Rico USDA TSTAR

2. What might Puerto Rico’s agriculture look like in the future?

3. One Possible Scenario Fewer, but more intense tropical storms will cause increased soil erosion, reduce surface water quality and fill our reservoirs with sediment. Flooding of fields will increase during the wet season, resulting in the loss of crops. During the dry season, evapotranspiration increases lead to drier soils, which produces crop stress and reduced yields. Crop water requirements will increase during certain months of the year, therefore the agricultural sector’s demand for water will increase, which may result in water conflicts between different sectors of society. http://academic.uprm.edu/abe/PRAGWATER

4. Agenda Downscaling GCM data Estimation of Potential ET and rainfall Penman-Monteith method Rainfall Deficit (or Excess) Yield Reduction Limitations of Climate Modeling Results Summary Conclusions and Recommendations Example Calculation of Net Irrigation Requirement

5. Objective The purpose of this study was to estimate evapotranspiration and rainfall deficit (or excess) under climate change conditions for three locations in western Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayagüez and Lajas. Estimates of future crop yields are also provided.

6. Statistical and Dynamic Downscaling

7. WHAT IF? What if questions are routinely addressed in engineering. What if questions are routinely addressed in engineering. What if the dam fails?What if the dam fails? What if the wind velocity reaches 150 mph?What if the wind velocity reaches 150 mph? What if the climate changes in certain ways, how might agriculture be affected? What if the climate changes in certain ways, how might agriculture be affected?

8. The GCM data were obtained from the Department of Energy (DOE)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The scenarios considered were the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a2 (mid-high CO2 emission) and b1 (low CO2 emission). METHODS

9. Study Area Table 1. Latitude, elevation, average rainfall, average temperature, NOAA Climate Division and distance to the coast for the three study locations. Location Latitude (decimal degree) Elevation (m) Annual Rainfall (mm) T mean ( o C) Tmin ( o C) T max ( o C) NOAA Climate Division Distance to Coast (km) Adjuntas18.18549187121.615.227.9622 Mayaguez18.3320174425.719.830.543 Lajas18.0027114325.318.831.7210

10. KsKs KcKc Evapotranspiration (ET)

11. Comparison of ETo from three different methods

12. where ET o is the Penman-Monteith reference or potential evapotranspiration,  is slope of the vapor pressure curve, R n is net radiation, G is soil heat flux density,  is psychrometric constant, T is mean daily air temperature at 2-m height, u 2 is wind speed at 2-m height, e s is the saturated vapor pressure and e a is the actual vapor pressure. Potential Evapotranspiration (ET o )

13. Missing Parameters in the Penman-Monteith Equation e a (T dp ): T dp = T min + K corr (Harmsen et al., 2002)e a (T dp ): T dp = T min + K corr (Harmsen et al., 2002) u 2 : Historical averages for NOAA Climate Divisions (Harmsen et al., 2002)u 2 : Historical averages for NOAA Climate Divisions (Harmsen et al., 2002) R net : Hargreaves radiation equationR net : Hargreaves radiation equation G: Allen et al., 1998G: Allen et al., 1998

14. RAINFALL DEFICIT (RFD) RFD = (RAINFALL – ETo) RFD < 0 MEANS THERE IS A DEFICIT RFD > 0 MEANS THERE IS AN EXCESS

15. Yield Moisture Stress Relationship YR = Yield reduction (%) K y = Yield response factor ET cadj = Adjusted (actual) crop ET ET c = K c ET o ET o = potential or reference ET

16. ET cadj = K c K s ET o Average K c = 1.0 Based on 140 crops (Allen et al., 1998) K c = crop coefficient K s = crop water stress factor RAW = readily available water TAW = Totally available water Actual Evapotranspiration (ET)

17. YIELD RESPONSE FACTOR (K y ) Alfalfa1.1 Banana1.2-1.35 Beans1.15 Cabbage0.95 Citrus1.1-1.3 Cotton0.85 Grape0.85 Groundnet0.70 Maize1.25 Onion1.1 Peas1.15 Pepper1.1 Potato1.1 Safflower0.8 Sorghum0.9 Soybean0.85 Spring Wheat1.15 Sugarbeet1.0 Sugarcane1.2 Sunflower0.95 Tomato 1.05 Watermelon1.1 Winter wheat1.05

18. WATER BALANCE S i+1 = R i – ET cadj,i – RO i – Rech i + S i S i+1 is the depth of soil water in the beginning of month i+1 S i is the depth of soil water in the profile at the beginning of month i R i = rainfall during month i ET i = Actual evapotranspiration during month i RO i = Surface runoff during month i Rech i = percolation or aquifer recharge during month i

19. RO = C R R = monthly rainfall C = monthly runoff coefficient = 0.3 Long term values of Runoff Coefficient Añasco Watershed C = 0.33 Guanajibo Watershed C = 0.2 Surface Runoff (RO)

20. Aquifer Recharge (Rech) S i+1 = R i – ET cadj,i – RO i + S i If S i+1 ≤FC then Rech = 0 If S i+1 > FC then Rech = S i+1 – FC and S i+1 = FC FC = Soil Field Capacity or Soil Water Holding Capacity

21. AIR TEMPERATURE RESULTS

22. Have we seen a warming trend in the Caribbean? Source: Ramirez-Beltran et al., 2007 14 53 1 28 5

23. Lajas, PR SLOPE IS NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT

24. Adjuntas, PR SLOPE IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT AT THE 5% LEVEL

25. Mayagüez, PR SLOPE IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT AT THE 5% LEVEL

26. Downscaled Minimum, Mean and Maximum Air Temperature ( o C) for Lajas Scenario A2

27. RAINFALL RESULTS

28. Downscaled Rainfall (mm) for Lajas Scenario A2

29. Downscaled Rainfall at Lajas for Scenario A2 February and September

30. IPPC Report, Feb. 2007 “Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs.”

35. Daily Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) by Month at Lajas, PR

36. RAINFALL DEFICIT RESULTS

40. Relative Change in Rainfall Deficit

41. CROP YIELD RESULTS

45. Disclaimer “Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at predicting climate change and variability on multi- decadal time scales.” “Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at predicting climate change and variability on multi- decadal time scales.” “Beyond some time period, our ability to provide reliable quantitative and detailed projections of climate must deteriorate to a level that no longer provides useful information to policymakers.” “Beyond some time period, our ability to provide reliable quantitative and detailed projections of climate must deteriorate to a level that no longer provides useful information to policymakers.” (Nov. 17, 2006, Roger Pielke Sr. Weblog, http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu)

46. Aerosol effect on clouds and precipitation Radiative Forcing Direct/diffuse solar irradiance change due to aerosols Diffuse radiation feedback with the terrestrial biosphere The cloud versus aerosol feedback on diffuse radiation changes Role of aerosols on radiative energy redistribution Biological effect of increased CO2 (e.g., stomatal resistance) Land use changes Economic factors Some sources of uncertainty in climate modeling

47. Historical data for Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico showed increasing trends in air temperature. Historical data from Adjuntas and Mayagüez indicated significant increasing trend in air temperature Historical data from Lajas did not indicate a significant trend in air temperature. The historical temperature data at Lajas may have been influenced by land cover/land use around the weather station. Future increases were predicted in air temperatures for Adjuntas, Mayagüez and Lajas downscaled from the DOE/NCAR PCM model. SUMMARY

48.  The annual predicted rainfall showed a slight decrease  Rainfall in September increased for all locations and all scenarios.  Rainfall decreased in most months (except September)  The rainfall results from this study were in general agreement with the results reported in the IPCC Feb. 2007 Report SUMMARY-Cont.

49.  Rainfall excess increased during September for all locations and all scenarios (between 2000 and 2090).  The largest increase in rainfall excess occurred for Adjuntas for scenario A1fi (312 mm)  The largest change in rainfall deficit occurred in Mayagüez for scenario A2 (-72 mm) SUMMARY-Cont.

50.  Significant Yield Reduction can be expected during the months that receive less rainfall  Yields improved during September for most scenarios and locations. SUMMARY-Cont.

51. Conclusions and Recommendations With increasing rainfall deficits during the dry months, the agricultural sector’s demand for water will increase, which may lead to conflicts in water use. With increasing rainfall deficits during the dry months, the agricultural sector’s demand for water will increase, which may lead to conflicts in water use. The results indicate that the wettest month (September) will become significantly wetter. The excess water can possibly be captured in reservoirs to offset the higher irrigation requirements during the drier months. The results indicate that the wettest month (September) will become significantly wetter. The excess water can possibly be captured in reservoirs to offset the higher irrigation requirements during the drier months.

52. Example Problem Estimating Crop Water Requirements and Net Irrigation Requirement In this example input data for Ponce, PR were used. Daily evapotranspiration will be determined for a calabaza crop starting on January 1 st, 2007. In this example input data for Ponce, PR were used. Daily evapotranspiration will be determined for a calabaza crop starting on January 1 st, 2007.

54. http://academic.uprm.edu/abe/PRAGWATER/

61. Net Irrigation Requirement

62. zero

63. Acknowledgements Norman L. Miller, Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Group, Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley National Laboratory. Nicole J. Schlegel, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley Jorge E. Gonzalez, Santa Clara University I would like to thank the NASA-EPSCoR and USDA- TSTAR projects for their financial support.