1. Postharvest Loss Prevention, ICT, and Innovation in Measurement Steve Sonka, Director May 21, 2013

2. AGENDA Future food security challenges Several “views” of postharvest loss The ADM Institute –Themes –Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss –Innovation in measurement

3. Global Food Demand Is Predicted to Increase 70% by 2050 Global Food Demand Is Predicted to Increase 70% by 2050 (FAO; 2009) Per capita food consumption

4. Global Crop Demand Is Estimated to Double From 2005 to 2050 Global Crop Demand Is Estimated to Double From 2005 to 2050 (NAS; 2011)

5. 2030 Food Demands Require About 200 Million More Hectares 2030 Food Demands Require About 200 Million More Hectares (McKinsey; 2011)

6. Commodity Price Changes Tell Interesting Story Commodity Price Changes Tell Interesting Story (McKinsey; 2011)

7. AGENDA Future food security challenges Several “views” of postharvest loss The ADM Institute –Themes –Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss –Innovation in measurement X

8. PHL Varies by Region PHL Varies by Region (FAO; 2011) Kg per year Per capita food waste and food loss (Kg/year) DATA!

9. PHL Varies by Commodity PHL Varies by Commodity (FAO; 2011)

10. PHL Varies Across Growing Conditions PHL Varies Across Growing Conditions (IBRD/WB; 2011)

11. PHL Varies Between Countries: For Same Crop PHL Varies Between Countries: For Same Crop (FAO; 2002)

12. PHL Varies Between States Within One Country PHL Varies Between States Within One Country (ADM Institute; 2012)

13. A More Specific Perspective: Rice in SE Asia A More Specific Perspective: Rice in SE Asia (IRRI; 2011) Consumption Crop In SE Asia, physical losses range from 15-25%. Quality losses range from 10-30% (loss in value)

14. Reducing PHL and Increasing Yields Have High Potential Reducing PHL and Increasing Yields Have High Potential (McKinsey; 2011)

15. Little Attention Is Devoted to PHL and Yields Little Attention Is Devoted to PHL and Yields (McKinsey; 2011)

16. Why Reduce Postharvest Loss? Some Hypotheses Estimates suggest 1/3 of agricultural production is “wasted” and doesn’t reach food consumer Investment required to reduce PHL could be modest Technology advances should make reduction more feasible and less expensive Arable land, water, energy are in limited supply – reducing PHL can lessen pressure on scarce resources

17. AGENDA Future food security challenges Several “views” of postharvest loss The ADM Institute –Themes –Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss –Innovation in measurement X X

18. Timeline of the ADM Institute Official Announcement $10 million gift India/Brazil emphasis Staple crops Official Announcement $10 million gift India/Brazil emphasis Staple crops 2011

19. Vision Statement Key elements include: To be an international information and technology hub To encompass technologies, practices and systems To focus on staple crops in key agricultural domains The ADM Institute

20. Timeline of the ADM Institute Awareness & Collaboration $2.5 million in funding allocated Awareness & Collaboration $2.5 million in funding allocated 2012 Official Announcement $10 million gift India/Brazil emphasis Staple crops Official Announcement $10 million gift India/Brazil emphasis Staple crops 2011

21. Four Themes

22. Scientific Animations Without Borders (SAWBO) Uses animations to disseminate information, particularly for low- literate populations –Images and audio to make information easily understood –Dissemination and access through internet, cell phones and tablets

23. Timeline of the ADM Institute 2013 Awareness & Collaboration $2.5 million in funding allocated Awareness & Collaboration $2.5 million in funding allocated 2012 Official Announcement $10 million gift India/Brazil emphasis Staple crops Official Announcement $10 million gift India/Brazil emphasis Staple crops 2011 Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss

25. Reduced Loss (%) Value $s Current Setting D S Cost of Reduction Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss 100 % Reduction 1/3 rd of production is lost Unsustainable Gap

26. Reduced Loss (%) Value $s Current Setting S Cost of Reduction Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss 100 % Reduction D D1 Enhanced Quality S1 Sustainable Gain Measurement !!!!!

27. Measurement “What's measured improves” – Peter F. Drucker "Measurement is the first step that leads to control and eventually to improvement. If you can't measure something, you can't understand it. If you can't understand it, you can't control it. If you can't control it, you can't improve it." – H. James Harrington "What gets measured gets done, what gets measured and fed back gets done well, what gets rewarded gets repeated.“ – John E. Jones “Another priority in the poorest countries must be to reduce the tragic waste of losses after harvest from inadequate storage, transportation and pest control.” “.. we urge …a goal of cutting in half these post harvest losses by 1985” Henry Kissinger. 7th special session of the U.N. General Assembly. September 1, 1975 Adopted as a resolution of the U.N. General Assembly. September 19, 1975 “Another priority in the poorest countries must be to reduce the tragic waste of losses after harvest from inadequate storage, transportation and pest control.” “.. we urge …a goal of cutting in half these post harvest losses by 1985” Henry Kissinger. 7th special session of the U.N. General Assembly. September 1, 1975 Adopted as a resolution of the U.N. General Assembly. September 19, 1975

28. Innovation in Measurement Actual loss in specific local settings Interventions to reduce loss Effectiveness of interventions over time Actual loss in specific local settings Interventions to reduce loss Effectiveness of interventions over time What to Measure Low cost Systemic ICT enabled  but probably for non PHL reasons Low cost Systemic ICT enabled  but probably for non PHL reasons How to Measure

29. “Practice” to Date Identify problem Quantify (measure/estimate) losses Identify causes Propose technical solutions Fund project to implement solutions Move to next project

30. Systems as Events/Patterns/Structure Patterns Structure The visible outcomes Events Changes over time Determines patterns

31. ExplicitTacit Observation Documentation Analysis Implementation Knowledge-Creating Systems

32. Exploit the Most Versatile Sensor

33. Phone Penetration Statistics 6.7 Billion mobile phones world-wide at the end of 2012 India in 2012 925 million mobile phone subscribers 75% of the population #2 Global Market (after China) Brazil in 2012 259 million mobile phone subscribers 130% of the population #5 Global Market (after China, India, US, and Indonesia) Nigeria in 2012 107 million mobile phone subscribers 65% of the population #10 Global Market Just under half of the population in India (i.e., more than 500 million people) use text messages on a regular basis

34. Tweets on Price of Rice Tweets on Price of Rice (UN Global Pulse and Crime Hexagon; 2011)

35. Price of Bread in Uruguay Price of Bread in Uruguay (UN Global Pulse and PriceStats, 2011)

36. Example: Looking to Re-fuel after Sandy DatasetHurricane Sandy Time duration14 days (Nov.2-15, 2012) Locations16 cities in East Coasts # of users tweeted7,583 # of tweets12,931 # of users crawled in social network 704,941 # of follower-followee links 37,597 Top tweets selected for annotation 140

37. Address Source Dependency 37 Finding Gas in NYC after Hurricane Sandy Social network helps ! Unconfirmed tweets

38. Community Knowledge Worker Community Knowledge Worker (Grameen Foundation, 2010) Grameen Foundation is implementing an information network, Community Knowledge Worker (CKW), in Uganda, using mobile technology to delivery information to and from farmers. CKW: an ICT enabled agricultural extension worker Information to farmers: –Market price: 42 commodities in 20 districts –Weather information: Up to 3 days in advance –Farming best practices –Supplier directory –Market platform: link buyers and sellers Mobile survey-based collection of farm data –Raw data –Analyses –GIS data

39. For sound medium and long term planning, what do we need to know? Location specific, timely and accurate information on rice production, supplies, and trends In particular: What is the harvested area? When will it be harvested? What is the yield? A combination of remote sensing and crop yield modeling can provide this information under certain conditions IRRI’s Approach on Measurement

40. OpticalRadar

41. Concept of RIICE Concept of RIICE (RIICE; 2011)

42. cyan cyan late Dec to early Jan blue blue mid-Jan redgreen red & green still under land preparation in mid-Jan Color shows crop establishment planting dates rice area estimates crop status & yield estimates crop damage estimates crop insurance Sentinel 1A & B satellites Global coverage every 6 days 20-m resolution Free Global rice monitoring and forecasting system: Radar-based real time crop monitoring system for rice

43. Open Data Definition “Open data is often referred to as the concept that information should be freely available to the public, without restriction or charge for its use by others. In the food and agricultural realm, open data is an essential piece of finding the answers we’ll need to feed the world.” (USDA, 2013)Actions Launched The Food, Agriculture, and Rural “data community” on Data.gov The Millennium Challenge Corporation released an open evaluation data catalog Launched USAID.gov/Developer

44. Closing Comments Society’s future food security – daunting but done before Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss has potential to contribute to the challenge Substantial progress unlikely without innovation in measurement –Low cost –Systemic –ICT enabled

45. Email: ssonka@illinois.edu Website: http://postharvestinstitute.illinois.edu