1. Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve UES Measure Ryan Firestone Regional Technical Forum 7/21/2015

2. Overview Today, we are seeking to approve a Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve UES measure. Review savings analysis methodology – Analysis of metered data – Application regional characteristic data – Measure interaction Propose as Planning measure – Large savings potential – Significant uncertainties in savings 2

3. Measure Overview Measure DevelopersRTF Staff/CAT CAT ReviewRyan Firestone, Mohit Singh-Chhabra Tech Sub-Com Review[none] R&E Sub-Com ReviewJuly 8, 2015 Notes New measure proposal submitted in 2013 Staff/CAT preliminary analysis present at Feb. 2014 RTF meeting o RTF approved allocation of staff resources towards developing a Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve Provisional UES measure 3

4. Showerers typically turn on water and wait for water temperature to rise before commencing shower – Structural waste: plug of cooled off water in hot water pipe – Behavioral waste: additional water used after temperature rise but before shower Device works by slowing shower flow to a trickle once the hot water reaches the valve, thus reducing the behavioral waste. Device is installed in-line between shower arm and shower-head. – Can be coupled with low-flow showerhead. Evolve Technologies’s ShowerStart TSV is the only product currently on the market. Technology Description

5. State of Knowledge LBNL metered study of baseline shower patterns – 11 homes (18 bathrooms) with usable events – Gas DHW homes in California metered in 2013 – Not a random sample: participants were recruited – Evolve Technologies analysis of data from December 2013 283 usable events – Start of behavioral waste: Clear temperature pass of 35 degC – End of behavioral waste: adjustment to lower temperature plateau ~50% of events not usable Average behavior waste per home: 38 seconds per usable event Usable Not usable

6. State of Knowledge LBNL metered study of baseline shower patterns – 11 homes (18 bathrooms) with usable events – Gas DHW homes in California metered in 2013 – Not a random sample: participants were recruited – Evolve Technologies analysis of data from December 2013 283 usable events – Start of behavioral waste: Clear temperature pass of 35 degC – End of behavioral waste: adjustment to lower temperature plateau ~50% of events not usable Average behavior waste per home: 38 seconds per usable event Behavior waste duration of 38 seconds/shower used in Measure Assessment. LBNL data may underestimate NW behavior waste due to location of study and participant selection process. 38 seconds/shower may overstate average behavior waste if some “not usable” events have less behavior waste savings potential.

7. State of Knowledge Pennsylvania Power and Light (Cadmus), 2014 – Metered pilot study ~20 homes x 1 month ~100 kWh/yr savings for showers with electric heated water – IEPEC paper detailing the evaluation to be published in August, 2015 Measure appears in several state TRMs and evaluations – Savings based on engineering analysis PSE MF pilot program – Program running smoothly, few complaints – Will likely not be evaluated until next biennium evaluation cycle.

8. Measure Identifiers 72, defined by – Market segment (2) Residential Health Care and Assisted Living – Equipment type (4) valve only valve and 2.0 gpm showerhead valve and 1.75 gpm showerhead valve and 1.5 gpm showerhead – Hot water type (3) electric resistance electric heat pump any (including gas) – Delivery mechanism (3) Direct Install Retail Mail by request Not using pre-conditions showerhead flow rate as a measure identifier – Using RBSA average for all measure instances – Keeps number of measure instances manageable Incremental savings from low flow showerhead are less than in Residential Showerhead UES measure. Primarily due to lower, RBSA-based estimate of people-per-showerhead (1.7), relative to Showerhead measure (2.5). Added this Commercial application because of program activity in other regions Separate residential segments (SF, MH, MF) may be warranted when more data is available.

9. Savings Methodology Electric savings is a product of – Hot water savings per shower event Showerhead flow rate (gpm) Behavior waste savings (minutes) % Hot Water (during warm-up) % of Shower (vs. tub) start – Shower events per year Showers_per_person (showers/person/year) People_per_shower (person/shower) – Hot water energy intensity ΔTemp_HotWater (T Water Heater Setpoint – T Inlet ) Water Heater Recovery Efficiency (COP) – 1 - Removal rate – 1 - Non-install rate Showerhead UES measure Heat Pump Water Heater UES measure

10. Savings Methodology [Go over Parameters sheet in workbook]

11. Measure Interaction Residential Showerhead UES measure – The effect of TSRV on the Showerhead measure is small enough to neglect Based on LBNL data, behavioral waste ~8% of [total water consumed] - [structural waste] That means an 8% difference between savings with and without TSRV – TSRV measure baseline should not be low-flow showerhead This product may appeal to consumers who don’t want a low-flow showerhead Therefore, TSRV measure uses average pre-conditions flow rate TSRV w/ LF Showerhead measure properly accounts for savings from this bundling of measures. Residential Heat Pump Water Heater UES measure – TSRV measure accounts for COP as a measure identifier {resistance, heat pump} – The effect of TSRV on the HPWH measure is small enough to neglect Behavioral waste is ~3% of total hot water use – Based on LBNL data and estimated 40% of DHW for showers

12. Measure Savings

13. Measure Cost

14. Measure Life Rated life of ShowerStart is 10,000 cycles Lifetime capped at 10 years to reflect other modes of failure and potential for removal before end of life

15. Cost effectiveness Water savings make measure highly cost effective 1.0

16. TSRV as a Planning Measure Staff/CAT recommend TSRV as a Planning measure – Significant uncertainties in parameter values Behavioral waste duration Effectiveness of TSRV in field Tub vs. shower start mix (pre- and post-TSRV) Participant mix of shower types, shower head types, DHW system types Removal/poor-performance rate, non-install rate – Large regional potential Residential ~20 aMW – (85% of electric DHW homes x 1.7 showerheads per home) Health care and assisted living ~0.1 aMW – (85% x showerhead count from Commercial Showerhead UES analysis x ~50% electric DHW) – Likely annual uptake: CA: 300,000 units in programs per year (4 th year in EE programs) NW estimate: 105,000 units/year x 30 to 100 kWh/unit = 0.36 to 1.2 aMW per year 16

17. Research Strategy Baseline and Participant metered study (30 sites x 4 segments) – Metered shower usage Pilot program (100s sites x 4 segments x 3 delivery mechanisms) – Removal and non-install rates – Site characteristics of participants 17 Parameter Baseline and Participant metered study Pilot program evaluation Baseline showerhead flow rate (gpm) x Behavior waste savings (minutes)x % Hot Water (during warm-up)x % of Shower (vs. tub) startx Showers per year, per showerheadx ΔTemp_HotWater (TWater Heater Setpoint – TInlet) (°F) x Water Heater Recovery Efficiency (COP) Removal and poor-performance ratex x Non-install rate x For Valve with Low-flow Showerhead Time in shower (total shower minus waste) (minutes) x % Hot Water during showerx

18. Research Strategy Research and Evaluation Subcommittee feedback on draft Research Strategy – Consider SF/MH/MF as separate segments – Consider DHW system parameters that affect time for water to reach temperature Proximity of shower to water heater Presence of recirculation loop 18

19. Proposed Motion “I _________ move that the RTF approve the Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve UES measure and Research Strategy as presented: – Set the category to ‘Planning’ – Set the status to ‘Active’ – Set the sunset date to July 31, 2018” AND “I _________ move that the RTF direct Staff to update the parameter values in the Residential Showerhead UES measure to be consistent with the TSRV parameter values.” 19