1. DRAFT Space Code of Conduct: Principles, Policies, Options
A Presentation by the Fletcher School’s
Space Policy Working Group
Dr. William Martel, Principal Investigator
Elisa Perry, Tim Ridout, Anthony Sung, Basak Sefii,
Ches Thurber, Peshala Wimalasena
December 2, 2010
Elisa

2. Outline Problem statement Case study: Chinese ASAT
Interference possibilities
Responding to interference in space
Code of conduct
Applying code to case studies
Directions for future research
Elisa

3. Problem Statement Goal: peaceful and efficient use of space
However, rapid increases in space activity heighten risks
Lack of norms and consequences encourages actors to test boundaries of permissible conduct
Critical importance of space to national security, economic systems
Significant concepts of transparency and deterrence
Elisa
Point 2 - available orbital space is becoming increasingly crowded.
Point 3 - As crowding increases, so does the competition between nations, corporations, and individuals.
Unregulated competition in orbital space will result in rising international tensions and an increase in both the number and consequences of unacceptable events

4. Transparency
Definition: open interactions among actors in space to understand actions, intentions
Transparency requires:
Space situational awareness
Clear rules of behavior
Communication among actors
Accountability for actions
Elisa

5. Deterrence
Definition: assure security through clear, credible threat of retaliation
Deterrence requires:
Clear rules of behavior
Evident consequences, “red lines”
Capability, will of actors to respond consistently
To reduce risk of escalation:
Mutually agreed-upon rules, clearly understood consequences
Open channels of communication
Elisa
“red lines”- actions that will be unacceptable to the international community

6. Previous Attempts at Space Code
Existing treaties, norms, proposed codes insufficient
Stimson Center Code (2007)
Share information on space activities
Minimize debris
Refrain from interference
Implement domestic regulations
EU Code (2010)
Register, report, and share information
Adopt Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines
Minimize accidents
Abide by ITU recommendations
All express desire for peaceful use of space
We need a code of conduct to guide behavior
Elisa
These codes do a good job outlining major issues, but are short on specifics. In particular they do not define interference (or its attributes)

7. Our Solution Code of Conduct
Enhance transparency, predictability, security
Specify, codify permitted, prohibited behavior in space
Provide communication mechanisms for information sharing, dispute resolution
Clarify principles for legitimate responses to interference
Credibly signal consequences to would-be rule-breakers
Encourage consistent policy responses from states
Elisa

8. Research Process (2009-2010) Survey of space problem
Demographics of space
Policy challenges
Analysis of potential models of governance
Air and maritime analogies
Other proposed space codes
Existing regulatory and legal frameworks (ITU, OST)
Study and brainstorm interference possibilities
Assess actors’ likely responses
Draft code of conduct
Suggest modes of implementation
Elisa
Air and maritime analogies: Law of the Sea (both treaty and custom)
Other proposed space codes: EU, Stimson

9. Outline Problem statement Case study: Chinese ASAT
Interference possibilities
Responding to interference in space
Code of conduct
Applying code to case studies
Directions for future research
Tim

10. Case Study: 2007 Chinese ASAT
January 2007: China launches ground- based SC-19 missile that destroys own FY- 1 weather satellite in LEO
Collision created considerable debris
Diplomatic protests: Australia, Canada, EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, UK, US
International response stronger than China anticipated
Tim
- Diplomatic protests: (Congressional Research Service, 2007: RS22652)
- International response stronger than anticipated (Joint Force Quarterly, July 2007)
- “Considerable debris” : 300k pieces

11. Chinese ASAT Highlights Central Problem
No laws or norms prohibit China’s action
Inability to predict international response
No agreed framework on deterrence
Absent clear rules, consequences, China conducts ASAT
Results in escalation, damage to space environment
Tim
Intro to the general problem – not a case for the code

12. Other Incidents of Concern
Radio frequency
Cuba jams uplink of US broadcast signal to Iran (2003)
Proximity operations
US, China test microsat proximity operations (2005, 2008)
Laser dazzling
US claims Chinese lasers dazzle US satellites (2006)
Hacking satellite systems
Hackers obtain control of British satellite (1999)
Kinetic
Chinese ASAT (2007), US ASAT (2008)
Iridium/Cosmos accidental collision (2009)
Tim

13. Outline Problem statement Case study: Chinese ASAT
Interference possibilities
Responding to interference in space
Code of conduct
Applying code to case studies
Directions for future research
Peshala

14. Types of Satellite Interference
Radio frequency
Proximity operations
Directed energy (laser dazzling)
Cyber (hacking)
Kinetic (damage, degrade, destroy)
Peshala: Introduction to concept/ spreadsheet
We will bring up spreadsheet and hand out at this point for an extended discussion of our interference list
Explain duration/ intensity, level of damage or level of proof.
In order of excalatory potential
Show dual projection spreadsheet sheet
Radio frequency –Elisa
Directed energy - Ches
Cyber / hacking - Basak
Proximity - Peshala
Kinetic / physical / explosive – Tim
DO NOT DISCUSS RESPONSES on this slide
Go quickly through each sub-type and then bring attention to one specific example (5-10 minutes each person)

15. Satellite Interference Spreadsheet
Columns
Specific interference activity
Duration/intensity of attack
Level of damage caused
Level of proof needed to identify source/intent
The interference methods (rows) are ordered by level of escalatory potential
Peshala: Introduction to concept/ spreadsheet
We will bring up spreadsheet and hand out at this point for an extended discussion of our interference list
Explain duration/ intensity, level of damage or level of proof.
In order of excalatory potential
Show dual projection spreadsheet sheet
Radio frequency –Elisa
Directed energy - Ches
Cyber / hacking - Basak
Proximity - Peshala
Kinetic / physical / explosive – Tim
DO NOT DISCUSS RESPONSES on this slide
Go quickly through each sub-type and then bring attention to one specific example (5-10 minutes each person)

16. Outline Problem statement Case study: Chinese ASAT
Interference possibilities
Responding to interference in space
Code of conduct
Applying code to case studies
Directions for future research
Ches

17. Potential Responses
1) Absolutely nothing 2) Evasive, defensive action 3) Back-channel political communications 4) Public protest/shaming 5) Demand for compensation/ restitution 6) Official diplomatic responses 7) Economic sanctions
8) Selective retaliation, reversible consequences
9) Selective retaliation, irreversible consequences (satellites)
10) Selective retaliation, irreversible consequences (ground-based assets)
11) Outright war
Ches
We have put Evasive action at 2 because of its low consequences for escalation. Also, cyber patching, counter-jamming, moving optical lens, etc… may be responses of first resort. However, we understand that moving a satellite is highly costly and if it is the only defensive option, responses 3-6 may be attempted first.

18. Criteria for Effective Responses
How should policymakers choose appropriate responses from range of options?
Criteria:
Protect national security
Minimize impact, end interference event
Deter future attempts
Comply with international laws and norms
Minimize risk of further escalation
Ches

19. Factors Affecting Level of Response
Nature, degree, and intent of interference
Quality of information: Interfering actor? Intent?
Function of “victim” satellite
Clarity of rules
Previous attempts to resolve conflict peacefully
International context
Ches

20. Interference Response: Purposes
Clearly identify types of interference
Categorize plausible responses
Differentiate diplomatic to forceful responses
Rationalize responses based on context
Illustrate potential for escalation
Anthony
We see the current matrix as a the likely responses that policymakers will take.
In providing this matrix, we hope that a future matrix, post a code of conduct will make it less likely situations become escalated.

21. Satellite Interference Responses
Classifying potential for escalation:
Low potential
Medium potential
High potential
Anthony, as the matrix-master we will leave it to you to provide orally a more detailed explanation of how it works beyond what’s on this slide
Green 1-3
Yellow 4-7
Red 8-10
White – not plausible, legal, or justifiable response
Likely response in non-war situation that a rational actor will take

22. Satellite Interference Responses Radio Frequency
Elisa
Remove #10 sq under jamming broadcast signal at downlink
Change downlink, uplink vocab

23. Satellite Interference Response Proximity
Peshala

24. Satellite Interference Responses Directed Energy
Ches

25. Satellite Interference Responses Cyber/Hacking
Basak

26. Satellite Interference Responses Kinetic
Tim

27. Outline Problem statement Case study: Chinese ASAT
Interference possibilities
Responding to interference in space
Code of conduct
Applying code to case studies
Directions for future research
Basak

28. Code of Conduct What It Should Do
Enhance transparency, predictability, stability, and security
Protect states’ capabilities
Help distinguish between accidental and intentional actions
Specifically prohibit or minimize certain provocative types of behavior in space
Thus, provide written framework for avoidance, peaceful resolution of disputes
Basak

29. Important Elements of the Code Positive Principles
Promote peaceful and efficient use of space
Protect equal access to space
Satellites protected as sovereign property of state
Basak
Basak and Peshala: I’ve laid out a new way of presenting the code in slides along with our paper code. You guys should let me know what you think.
From Anthony = do we need the words ‘positive’ and ‘negative’? Better word?

30. Important Elements of the Code Negative Principles
Prohibit dangerous, provocative acts in space:
Radio frequency jamming
Proximity operations
Cyber hacking
Directed energy attacks
Kinetic attacks
Unnecessary creation of debris
Peshala

31. Important Elements of the Code Dispute Resolution Mechanisms
Joint efforts to improve space situational awareness
Protocols for information sharing
Protocols for communication in event of interference
Forums for discussion of space disputes
Possible mechanisms for arbitration, adjudication of disputes
Peshala

32. Important Elements of the Code Principles to Guide Responses
Right to self-defense applies in space
Critical concept for state
Limitations on self-defense also apply
Peaceful means should be exhausted first, when possible
Responses must be proportional to level of interference
Responses must be discriminate
Actors may wish to declare more specific response policies
Unilaterally or through bilateral agreements
Peshala

33. Outline Problem statement Case study: Chinese ASAT
Interference possibilities
Responding to interference in space
Code of conduct
Applying code to case studies
Directions for future research
Tim

34. 2007 China ASAT Revisited
Code of conduct explicitly prohibits such action
Rule against unnecessary debris creation
Potential rule prohibiting ASAT first-use
Code narrows range of responses
Clear violation of established rule makes lowest-level responses more likely
Tim
Code helps to avoid policy gridlock, galvanize the international community to rally around certain universally acceptable responses. (Change the second set of points)

35. Impact of Code on China ASAT
China likely expected “Green” response
Code would make clear that “Yellow” response more likely
By making consequences transparent, consistent, code enhances deterrence
Uncertainty: With code in place, would China have been deterred from conducting ASAT?
Tim
From Anthony, We believe that the with the code in place, China may not have conducted ASAT. However, since history has occurred, we can take this opportunity to use what happened w/ the ASAT and international responses plus a code would strongly solidify deterrence mechanisms.

36. Microsatellite Case Study
Chinese microsatellite approaches US imaging satellite
Given unknown Chinese intentions, national security mission of US satellite creates dangerous situation
Current legal regime provides no basis for determining who has right of way, how to respond
Lack of clarity increases risk of escalation
Ches

37. Microsatellite Case Study Potential Application of Code
Code clearly prohibits Chinese action
Satellite maintaining orbit has right-of-way
“Keep-out box” encircling US satellite establishes protected “zone”
Code clarifies possible responses
Clear violation makes lowest-level responses unlikely
Clear violation has implications for higher-level responses
Mechanisms for communication, dispute resolution make higher-level responses less likely, unnecessary, provocative
Ches

38. Microsatellite Case Study Impact of Code
Code establishes which satellite has right of way
Imposes obligation on microsatellite to move away
Communication and crisis resolution mechanisms increase likelihood of de- escalation
Cold War examples
Clarity of rule, consequences may deter microsatellite approach to begin with
Ches

39. Outline Problem statement Case study: Chinese ASAT
Interference possibilities
Responding to interference in space
Code of conduct
Applying code to case studies
Directions for future research
Anthony

40. Further Steps to Implementing the Code
Unilateral policy declaration
National Space Policy
Bilateral treaty
US-Soviet agreements
Multilateral convention
Outer Space Treaty
Customary international law
Maritime rights-of-way, rules of engagement
Regulatory regime
ITU regulations for GEO
ICAO system for airspace
Anthony
Area for future research
We have discussed today the Code in terms of a multilateral treaty. But it may be that some elements that we described may be better codified in a different way. One direction for possible future research is to explore in greater detail the substantive and political implications of different methods for codifying/institutionalizing different elements of the Code.

41. Directions for Future Research
Study responses based on satellite type and function
Further development, analysis of code of conduct
Create “model” bilateral, multilateral scenarios
Study institutions to enforce code of conduct
Analysis of forceful responses (Red Zone)
Incorporate “traffic management” and other non- deliberate interference issues
Anthony
More??
Escalation scenarios

42. Questions and Extended Discussion
Anthony