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Employment in China After It Reached Lewis Turning Point CAI Fang Institute of Population and Labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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Neoclassical Contracts to Lewisian
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This Presentation Intends to How demographic transition reshaped LM and employment in China Employment problems mixed by factors of both neoclassical and dual economy characteristics 3 groups with special vulnerability exposed to cyclical & natural unemp’t with focus on migrant workers
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Demographic Transition and Labor Market Outcomes
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China Demographic Transition
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Demography-resulted Labor Shortage
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Labor Force Is Aging
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Labor Demand Continues Increasing
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Scenarios of Labor Demand
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Wages Increases in All Sectors
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Challenges Are Brand New for Chinese Governments
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From Dual to Neoclassical Scenario
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Workers’ Expectation Increasing, too
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Gov’t Identified 3 Vulnerable Groups
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Incomplete Urbanization
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Agricultural Labor Is Aging
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Migrants’ Insecure Employment
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Low Coverage of Social Security
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Policy Agenda for New Era Integrating labor market (hukou reform) Labor market institutions (collective bargaining) Broader social protection mechanism Employment-centered macroeconomic policy
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Thank you for attention
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