1. 1 World Vision International Macro-Conflict Analysis for Emergencies, Development & Advocacy One International NGO’s Experience 2002-2011

2. 2 World Vision International What is MSTC? “Making Sense of Turbulent Contexts” –World Vision’s custom-designed conflict analysis tool Inspired by Philippe Le Billon’s work on political economy of war (“winners” & “losers”) 3.5 day workshop with 28 local participants, drawn from civil society Always “in the field”

3. 3 World Vision International Conflict Analysis Tools

4. 4 World Vision International MSTCs since 2003: 36 workshops, 21 countries, 8 years, 4 languages* *English, Spanish, French, Bahasa Indonesia

5. MSTC Analysis Cycle Looking to the Future The Past to the Present Rapid History Actor Groups & Characteristics Group Relationship Symptoms & Causes Political Economy of Instability Triggers & Scenarios Operational Implications Integration Strategic Needs MSTC Mapping

6. Key Final check of all local travel, logistics, and supplies. Rest (Optional) Facilitation Team Training (Optional) Facilitation Team Training Facilitator Preparations Evaluation of facilitators and content check Rest Analysis & Write-Up Travel National office edits workshop notes and Plans tele-conference in 4 weeks to present final report to the organisation. MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday MSTC Workshop (8:30 a.m. -5 p.m. MSTC Workshop (8:30 a.m. -5 p.m. MSTC Workshop (8:30 a.m. -5 p.m. * Distribution of workshop notes to all participants *Facilitation team will deliver 10-12 page final report within 4 weeks of workshop end. Room Preparation Presentation & Discussion: Recommendat ions to N.O. Senior Leadership Sunday MSTC Workshop (1pm-5pm) Facilitation Team Workshop Participants General Schedule Facilitation Team Meeting/ Reflection

7. MSTC Agenda Please do NOT distribute to participants in advance As per local tradition Lunch 1:00 – 2:00 p.m.Welcome, Introduction 2:00 – 3:30 p.m.Rapid Historical Phase Analysis 3:30 – 3:45 p.m.Tea/Coffee 3:45 – 4:00 p.m.Reflection on historical analysis 4:00 – 4:45 p.m.Identification of actor-groups 4:45 – 5:00 p.m.Closing 8:00 - 8:30Reflection 8:30 – 8:45 Revision of Day 1 9:00-10:00Actor Groups: Characteristics and History (as needed) Tea/Coffee 10:00- 12:00 Inter-Group Relationships 12:00-1:00Lunch 1:00-2:00Symptoms of Instability (as needed) Tea/Coffee 2:00-4:30Analysis of Political Economy – Part I 4:30-5:00Closing of the Day 8:30-9:00Reflection & Summary of Day 2 9:30-10:30Political Economy II: Economic Activities (as needed)Tea/Coffee 10:30-12:30Mapping 12:30-1:30Lunch 1:30-2:30Mapping (as needed)Tea/Coffee 2:30-4:30Triggers & Scenarios 4:30 – 5:00Closing 8:00-9:00Continuing with triggers & scenarios 9:00-10:30Strategic Implications 10:30-10:45Tea/Coffee 10:45-12:30Operational Implications 12:30-1:30Lunch & Check Out from hotel 1:30-3:00Operational Implications: Report Back (as needed)Tea/Coffee 2:30-3:30“Checking Out” Exercise 3:30-4:00Closing Day 1Day 2Day 3Day 4

8. So what does an MSTC look like? 8

9. Timeline 9

10. Symptoms & Causes 10

11. Resource Mapping