1. MPI ESM Project Super Volcano Claudia Timmreck and super volcano project group 24 May 2007

2. MPI-Met Integrated Project „Super Volcano“ The project  Since January 2006 internal project with ca. 20-25 active scientists from MPI-Met and a few external experts  Project coordinator C. Timmreck The Mission  to understand the complex feedback mechanisms of the earth system  to understand past climate changes  to improve our Earth System Model

3. Contents  Introduction What is a super volcano? Why studying a super volcano eruption?  Ongoing activities Impact of large tephra deposit on vegetation and climate Experiments with a middle atmosphere ESM The Mt Pinatubo test case – Transport of fine ash and sulphate – Radiative forcing – Possible effects of volcanic eruptions on ENSO  Outlook

4. What is a super eruption ? Super eruptions “are defined to be those eruptions yielding in excess of 10 15 kg of products (>150 times the mass of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo)” (Mason et al, 2004). Super eruptions are estimated to occur with a minimum frequency of 1.4 events/Myr (Mason et al, 2004), but in Earth history there were episodes with higher frequency.

5. Most super eruptions occurred at subduction zones or from vents within large caldera lakes, hence initially water may have contributed. Super Volcano Sites

6. Historic super eruptions  Toba: The super eruption of the Indonesian volcano Toba 71-73 ± 5 ka BP (Rose and Chesner, 1987; Oppenheimer, 2002) was the largest known Quaternary eruption  Yellowstone: Three super eruptions at Yellowstone are known: the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff eruption with an volume of erupted material of 2500 km 3 2.1 Ma ago, the Mesa Falls Tuff eruption with 280 km 3 erupted material 1.3 Ma ago and the Lava Creek Tuff eruption with a volume of 1000 km 3 640000 years ago (e.g., Smith and Siegel, 2000).  Further possible sites for super volcanos: Phlegrean Fields west of Naples, Lake Taupo (NZ), ….

7. These eruptions spread volcanic ash over large parts of the North American continent, covering up to 1/3 of the continent with silicate ash of at least 10 cm depth. Yellowstone Volcanic System

8. A Yellowstone eruption in summer

9. Why study super volcanic eruptions? Global scientific questions  What would be the global impact of a present day Yellowstone eruption (USA) or an eruption of the Phlegrean fields (Italy) ? -> Advices for environmental, economic social and political consequences  Was the Young Toba Tuff eruption (74±2kyr BP) responsible for a bottle neck in human population around 70 kyr BP ?  Can super volcanic eruptions trigger ice ages ? This project should help to understand past climate changes.

10. Why study super volcanic eruptions? Super volcanos constitute extremely strong forcing to all compartments of the Earth system: Changes in surface albedo and atmospheric radiation Direct effect on vegetation Massive global cooling over several years (decades) -> Impact on vegetation e.g tropical rainforest Stratospheric warming Changes in atmospheric circulation (AO) and chemical composition (e.g. ozone depletion) Changes in sea level and ocean heat content Impact on the carbon cycle (e.g. change in NPP, marine bioproductivity) Impact on water cycle (e.g. reduced tropical precipitation) This project should help to understand the feedback mechanisms of the Earth system.

11. Impact of Large Tephra Deposit on Vegetation and Climate

12.  Tephra (Greek: ash): Fragments of rock and magma ejected from volcanic eruptions, ranging in size from 1m.  Effect of tephra deposits on vegetation and surface: Dying of vegetation Change of surface fluxes (canopy/ground - air) Change of surface albedo Change of surface and soil hydrology  These changes will have large and potentially long-lasting impacts on weather, climate and the CO2 cycle on continental and even global scales.

13. Modelling the effects of tephra  We use the MPI Earth System Model including ECHAM5 (atmosphere), MPIOM (ocean), HAMOCC (marine biogeoche- mistry) and JSBACH (terrestrial biosphere). CO2 is transported in the atmosphere and exchanged between the atmosphere and the ocean, resp. land. Tephra deposit was implemented in JSBACH similar to the treatment of snow in ECHAM5.2 in terms of depth and cover fraction: Cover fraction is a function of depth and orography Tephra on vegetation: interception, unloading due to wind and rain, throughfall Tephra on ground: decay due to remobilisation and re- distribution (e-folding time of depth is function of orography)  Maximum LAI is a simple function of tephra cover fraction, the actual LAI is modelled in the JSBACH phenology module (allowing for dying of vegetation as well as re-growth). Surface albedo depends on the fraction of a grid cell covered with tephra and the albedo of ash (set to 0.35).

14. Distribution of Tephra Deposit for a Yellowstone Super-Eruption Tephra Depth after initial deposit Tephra depth after initial depositTephra depth 5 years after eruption Tephra cover fraction after initial depositTephra cover fraction 5 years after eruption (R. Schnur et al., MPI-M)

15. Preliminary Results, JJA Difference in LAIDifference in Upward CO2 flux Difference in Surface Albedo Differences for JJA taken from three-year averages: (2-4 years after eruption) – (1-3 years before eruption) 10 -8 kg/m 2 /s (R. Schnur et al., MPI-M)

16. 2D modeling of the initial dispersal of volcanic material

17. SO2 Fine ash (r=10  m) Coarse ash (r=200  m) Lapilli (r=4mm) (M. Herzog, GFDL) ATHAM (2D) simulation of a co-ignimbrite cloud after 400s (maximal height)

18. SO2 Fine ash (r=10  m) Coarse ash (r=200  m) Lapilli (r=4mm) (M. Herzog, GFDL) ATHAM (2D) simulation of a co-ignimbrite cloud after 800s

19. A coupled simulation with MAECHAM5-MPIOM

20. The coupled middle atmosphere model ECHAM5(47)MPIOM Model ECHAM5 middle atmosphere configuration  MAECHAM5 Horizontal resolution: T63 / 1.875° lon x ~1.875° lat Vertical resolution: 47 layers up to 0.01 hPa lowermost 26 layers up to 100 hPa identical to L31  identical representation of the troposphere MPIOM 1.5 degree resolution 40 layers Identical to ocean in T63L31 control experiment The experiment has been continued for 162 years in total -» 100 year of stable MAECHAM5/MPIOM climate

21. Coupled ECHAM5MPIOM T63L47–T63L31 comparison Nearly uniform warming in the troposphere (below 200hPa), largest in the tropics (~0.5 K). Above 200 hPa, the difference in temperature is dominated by differences in the mean stratospheric circulation, Reduction in the coupled model temperature bias in the tropopause region and in the tropical stratosphere and upper troposphere. At the high latitudes the bias has changed sign. ECHAM5/MPIOM-ERA40MAECHAM5-ECHAM5 significanceMAECHAM5/MPIOM - ERA40 (M. Giorgetta et al., MPI-M)

22. Coupled ECHAM5MPIOM T63L47–T63L31 comparison Basic aspects of climate variability: Robust features, given that the ENSO frequency and strength, NAO variability is unchanged. However, regional patterns and teleconnection show sensitivity to the atmospheric component. Namely, the cooling in the Arctic and in high latitudes in Europe and Asia and the warming in low latitude Asia and in Africa found for the ENSO teleconnection in T63L47.

23. Next steps for the middle atmosphere ESM  Fine tuning with modified middle atmosphere model (Echam5.4 with significant changes in the SW radiation scheme)  Integration of HAMMONIA (middle and upper atm. chemistry, Schmidt et al J. Clim. 2006) and HAMMOZ (tropospheric chemistry coupled to aerosols, Pozzoli et al, in prep.), in the COSMOS ESM.  Other modules (simplified chemistry, MECCA, SAM2 ?) should be additional options for a middle atmosphere model with chemistry and aerosols

24. The Pinatubo test case: Atmospheric dispersal of ash

25. Pinatubo test case: Atmospheric dispersal of ash (U. Niemeyer et al., MPI-M)

26. Pinatubo test case: Deposition of ash Accumulated dry deposition of fine ash [g/m^2] (U. Niemeyer et al., MPI-M)

27. The Pinatubo test case: Radiative effects

28. 1991 1992 Temperature anomaly at 50 hPa after Mt. Pinatubo After improvements in the SW scheme, the lower stratospheric temperature response is around 4K that is 3K less than the simulations with original ECHAM5 and is more realistic. (M. A.Thomas, MPI–M) „Old“ ECHAM5 Improved ECHAM5 NCEP Reanalysis

29. The Pinatubo test case: A possible volcanic effect on ENSO

30. o  During the winters following the three biggest eruptions in the last decades (Agung, 1963; El Chichón, 1982; and Pinatubo,1991) El Niños took place.  Paleo reconstrcutions (Adams et al, 2003) seem to indicate that large volcanic eruptions help to drive the ocean and atmosphere towards a state in which El Niño conditions are favored. A possible volcanic influence on ENSO  We have carried out a series of volcanic experiments with the coupled atmosphere ocean circulation model, the ECHAM5/MPIOM.  The volcanic radiative forcing is calculated online in the model using a realistic spatial-temporal distribution of aerosol optical parameters derived from satellite observations for the Pinatubo episode.

31. Nino 3.4 SST anomalies [k] Case 1, JuneCase 2, June Case 2, JanCase 1, Jan (super volcano group, MPI-M)

32. Temperature differences (K) and respective significances in the equatorial pacific. The grey scale indicates significances of 90, 95, and 99%. Ocean depth (m) 199201, 7 months after eruption Ocean depth (m) Temperature response in the equatorial pacific (super volcano group, MPI-M)

33. Conclusions (Pinatubo-ENSO)  Our model results cannot support the hypothesis from Adams et al. (2003) that volcanoes enhance the possibilty of an El Ni ñ o event. Our results point in the opposite direction in accordance with new radiocarbon reconstructions (Druffel et al., 2007).  Ongoing work !!!!!!

34.  Impact on the carbon cycle : volcanic effect on the net CO 2 bonding in the terrestrial biosphere) Input on ocean biogeochemsitry e.g. Algal blossom (Coupling with HAMMOC is prepared)  Understanding the climate signal of historic eruptions, e.g. 1258, Tambora, less cooling in the temperature proxy as one would expected from the estimated emisssion (together with the MILLENIUM project)  Impact on sea level and ocean heat content „Krakatoa lives forever “ ......  A fully coupled ESM simulation of a volcanic super eruption including interactive volcanic aerosol and chemistry Next steps

35. Impact on sea level and ocean heat content „Karakatoa lives forever“  There is a clear subsurface response in heat content after the Krakatoa eruption (1883) lasting for several decades in the MPI-M IPCCAR4 runs similar as in a recent paper by Gleckler et al (Nature, 2006). (F.Landerer, MPI-M)

36.  Impact on the carbon cycle : volcanic effect on the net CO 2 bonding in the terrestrial biosphere) Input on ocean biogeochemsitry e.g. Algal blossom (Coupling with HAMMOC is prepared)  Understanding the climate signal of historic eruptions, e.g. 1258, Tambora, less cooling in the temperature proxy as one would expected from the estimated emisssion (together with the MILLENIUM project)  Impact on sea level and ocean heat content „Krakatoa lives forever “ ......  A fully coupled ESM simulation of a volcanic super eruption including interactive volcanic aerosol and chemistry Next steps

37. Outlook  The middle atmosphere ESM incl. chemistry and aerosol microphysics which is developed in the frame of the SV project will be a sophisticated tool for studies of super eruption analogues (asteroid impacts, nuclear weapons)  Application also for basaltic super eruptions over a long time scales (several 100 years) e.g Deccan traps.  ESM model studies for volcanic eruptions are also a pretty good analogue to asses the climatic consequences for surface albedo enhancement experiments with stratospheric aerosol as currently are widely debated.

38. Last but not least  The MPI super volcano group is a MPI-M crosscuting project but it is not for MPI-M members only !  All interested scientists are welcome to work and collaborate with us  Further information: http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/working-groups/super- volcanoes.html or contact: claudia.timmreck@zmaw.de