1. The 2015 Economy: Staying the course?? R. Christopher Jones, Ph.D.

2. 2 What has 2014 offered us (the U.S.)? An economy that is still growing, but a bit more slowly.. Recession technically over June 2009  18 out of 21 quarters with positive real GDP growth since Q3 2009  We did see negative growth in Q1 2014 (2.1%)  Unemployment at lowest point since July 2008 (5.9%)  Retail sales growth relatively solid  Growth in industrial production and capacity utilization  Interest rates still low, and we have avoided inflation  5.2% growth in S&P 500 YTD 2014

3. 3 What else did it bring? Slightly better job creation..  We created 1.3 million jobs so far in 2014 About 200,000 more than in all of 2013 Increasing Federal debt continues to raise concerns of inflation (although we haven’t seen it yet), while Fed plans to normalize monetary policy (Fed Funds Rate incr.) International debt (nearly $160 T) still poses a threat to monetary and economic stability Marginal growth in housing starts

4. 4 What about Florida? Growth has returned, but not “2000’s style” growth  YTD net job growth – 122,300  Unemployment at 6.1% (Sept.)  Housing starts have slipped slightly since 2013 (57,691 YTD)  Home values beginning to move upward  All major regional markets seem to have awakened from the economic coma, but are far from robust

5. 5 U.S. Real GDP 1952-2014 (Chained 2009 Dollars)

6. 6 U.S. Real GDP Annualized % Growth 1952-2014

7. 7 U.S. Unemployment Rate 1960-2014

8. 8 U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR) 1960-2014

9. 9 Real Retail & Food Svcs. Sales 1992-2014

10. 10 Inflation (CPI-U) 1970-2014

11. 11 Real Per Capita Disposable Personal Income 1960-2014

12. 12 Credit Market Debt Per Capita 1960-2014 (infl. adj.)

13. 13 Consumer Sentiment 1980-2014

14. 14 Federal Debt 1972-2014

15. 15 2015 U.S. Forecast Growth continues, real GDP will grow by 2.5% - 3.0% Modest job growth continues, unemployment finishes out the year around 5.7% - 5.8% Stock markets grow by 5% - 8% Inflation concerns still can’t be ignored, nor can the international debt crisis Is there a “boom” period ahead in the short run?  Not likely – but probably no collapse, either

16. 16 Florida: The Facts Florida has added 729,900 jobs since July 2010  Represents 10.3 percent of all U.S. jobs created during this period The net job gains (729.9k) represent 78.4% of the job losses experienced during the recession (930,800) Oct. 2013 – Sept. 2014: Gained 129,800 jobs 6.2% unemployment (Sept. 2014) 57,691 housing starts first 8 mos. of 2014, compared to 60,319 in 2013 and 40,101 in 2012 Home prices have increased by 9.8 percent in the past year

17. 17 Florida Real GDP (millions of chained 2005 dollars) 1997-2013

18. 18 Florida Employment (000s) 1990-2014

19. 19 Florida Unemployment Rate 1983-2014

20. 20 Florida Housing Starts 1988-2014

21. 21 Florida Home Price Index (Q1 1980 = 100) 1988-2014

22. 22 Florida Home Ownership Rate 1984-2013

23. 23 Leading Index for Florida 1990-2014

24. 24 FL Employment By Region 1990-2014 (000s)

25. 25 FL Unemployment Rate by Region 1990-2014

26. 26 FL Housing Starts By Region 1990-2014

27. 27 What’s in Store for Florida? More job growth, lower unemployment  But the growth will be modest  Florida’s economic picture today looks a lot like the early 1990’s Are we ever going to see a full recovery of the housing sector?  Depends on how you define “full recovery”  If you use 2000’s criteria, no All areas are moving forward again  SE Florida will create the most jobs (most diverse economy)