1. Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data

2. SSU: ~10-15 km thick layer temperatures

3. data from NOAA operational satellites

4. NOAA-11 NOAA-14 note flattening of trends since ~1995 small long-term cooling in middle strat.

5. MSU4 trends 1979-2004

6. SSU15x trends 1979-2004 NOAA-14NOAA-11

7. NOAA-14 Annual average trends 1979-2004

8. Model vs. observed trends (1979-1997) Shine et al., 2003 x 1979-2003 trends

9. How do we interpret stratopause variability? ? ~45-60 km

10. How do we interpret stratopause variability? ? ~45-60 km

11. Model vs. observed trends (1979-1997) Shine et al., 2003 x 1979-2003 trends x why are middle stratosphere trends so small ?

12. Seasonal trends (N11)

13. SSU vs. HALOE SSU 27 ~35-50 km HALOE integrated to approximate SSU 27

14. SSU vs. HALOE SSU 47x ~43-57 km HALOE integrated to approximate SSU 47x

15. Problems in operational analyses / reanalyses due to changes in satellite instruments vertically integrated to approximate SSU 36x (~35-50 km)

16. Global mean 100 hPa temps from analyses / reanalyses Note spurious changes due to evolution of data / analysis systems TOVS – ATOVS change each data set normed to zero for 1992-1999

17. Temperature solar cycle 1979-2003 NOAA-11 NOAA-14

18. Observations vs. model FUB model, Matthes et al., 2004

19. Observed ozone and temp changes 40 km ozone 35-50 km temperature note coherent variability (temperatures respond to ozone)

20. Some key points: Significant differences between updated record using NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 data Strong upper stratosphere cooling ends after ~1995 (reasonable agreement with HALOE data) No significant trends in tropical lower stratosphere in MSU4 and SSU15x data (very different from radiosondes) Small global trends in middle stratosphere (different from models) Reanalysis data sets problematic for trends Solar cycle ~1 K, maximizes in tropical middle-upper stratosphere