1. THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS IN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN GRAIN SECTOR Sergey Feofilov UkrAgroConsult Round Table, Black Sea Grain Conference - 2009 Kiev

2. Trends in the total agricultural output (1990 = 100%), %

3. Ukraine: Animal and poultry inventories

4. Ukraine: Rural population, Th persons, by January 1 200220032004200520062007 Total population 48240.947823.147442.147100.546749.246465.7 Rural population, including: 15950.215750.415551.215346.715127.114943.9 Men 7412.77329.77245.47154.170556973.9 Women 8537.58420.78305.88192.68072.17970 Able-bodied rural population, including: 8176.98210.38239.48226.28222.98210 Men 43184330.64353.14359.143744374.4 Women 3858.93879.73886.33867.13848.93835.6 Employed in agriculture n/a 4105.73998.34005.53652.6

5. Structural changes in agricultural enterprises July 2007April 2008 Number of studied holdings1829 Total area of land in use, Ml ha1.73.07 Average area within one holding, Th ha94106 Plans for land use expansion in 200850% Land use expansion from July till December 200721% Forecast average size in 2008, Th ha143 Openness of information72%

6. Commodity positions price, EUR/T Previous customs tariff WTO Commitments Specific duty rate, EUR/MT Ad valorem equivalent of specific rate Ad valorem rate 0202000000 Beef, frozen:575 0202309000 - - other56820%15% 0203000000 Pork fresh, cooled or frozen:999 0203211000 - - - hogs79360076%10% 0203290000 - - other:128110008%10% 0203291300 - - - - loin and its cuts1618100062%10% 0203295500 - - - - - boned1266 0206000000 Food by-products, fresh, cooled or frozen51750097%15% 0206220000 - - liver:527 0207000000 Meat and food by- products of poultry of fresh, cooled or frozen:279400143%10% 0207141000 - - - - boned261400154%10% Source: Law of Ukraine “On Customs Tariff”, draft Law “On Amending the Customs Tariff”, own calculations

7. Destination of wheat export

8. Theoretical grain thru put port capacity, Ml tons 2002/032003/042005/062008/09 2012* 17-1820-2227-2831-3245

9. Ukraine: The key elevator chains CompanyNumber of elevators Total capacity, Th tons Glencore352 080 Toepfer11513 Bunge4612 Cargill6387 WJ5204 Louis Dreyfus5264

10. Prices for Elevator services UAH/mt $=7.7UAH

11. Ukraine: Grain yield and profitability, %

12. Ukraine: Wheat prices

13. Ukraine: Corn prices

14. Ukraine: Barley prices

15. Ukraine: Comparative grain/sunseed values

16. Crop margins, UAH, as of May 2008 Crop efficiency Sunflower (Steppe) Winter rapeseed (Forest Steppe) Winter wheat (Steppe) Corn (Forest Steppe) Price, UAH/T4000290014301230 Yield, T/ha2.72.84.29.2 Government payment, UAH/Ha --100 - Total Direct Costs, UAH/Ha1285.91348.81915.81791.3 - Seed173.3252.3413.4361.4 - Fuel213.3369.4301.9346.5 - Fertilizer460.0266.3487.3320.0 - Crop protection275.0206.0179.6289.3 - Melioration --20.7 - - Labour costs48.555.789.9106.9 - Machinery65.2119.6156.086.1 - Other services costs -77.6185.090.0 - Autopark services costs50.61.982.0191.1 Total Revenue/Ha9514.16771.24190.29524.7

17. Crop structure evolution

18. Ukraine: Crop structure evolution

19. Ukraine: Grain and Oilseed Crops Structure, Th ha Crop20082007Growth/Reduction Rapeseed1 7501 145+ 605 Wheat7 0006 511+ 489 Corn2 5002 200+ 300 Sunseed4 3204 170+ 150 Rye465352+ 113 Millet130106+ 24 Oat425407+ 18 Others160151+ 9 Total areas’ growth+ 1,708 Barley4 3005 055- 755 Sugar beet410635- 225 Peas225368- 143 Soybean600665- 65 Buckwheat310337- 27 Total areas’ reduction- 1,215

20. Ukraine: The Budget support for farmers, 2008 CropsSupport rates, UAH/ha Winter wheat, triticale, rye100 Spring wheat, triticale, oats, peas, buckwheat, millet 100 Soybeans, at least 1 st reproduction80 Soybeans, 2 nd and 3 rd reproductions50 Rice220 Sugar beet750 Long-fibred flax and retted hemp stalks640

21. Ukraine: Financial support for agricultural producers, UAH Bl Year2005200620072008 Total of VAT benefits*3.784.125.718 The direct budgetary support ** 1.782.804.044.5 :

22. Ukraine: Ways of the Gov’t activity in the grain market SeasonsMortgage purchases* Intervention purchases* Forward purchases 2001/2002 Х 2002/2003 Х 2003/2004 ХХ 2004/2005 ХХ 2005/2006 ХХ 2006/2007 ХХ 2007/2008 Х 2008/2009 ХХ

23. Ukraine: Gov’t grain procurements, Th mt YearIntentionsActually procured 2005/20061500**135 2006/2007400176 2007/2008580425 2008/2009881352***

24. Ukraine: Gov’t decisions on Ukraine’s grain export quotas, 2006-2008 The decisionTimeWheatBarleyCornRye Government resolution of September 28, 2006, #1364 Automatic licensin g Government resolution of October 11, 2006, #1418 17.10.2006- 31.12.2006400600 3 Government resolution of December 8, 2006, #1701 14.12.2006-30.06.200736005003 Government resolution of February 13, 2007, #185 15.02.2007-30.06.200722860630 Government resolution of February 22, 2007, #290 26.02.07-07.06.07Quotas cance lled Government resolution of May 16, 2007, #748 08.06.07-30.06.07Quotas cancelle d Government resolution of June 20, 2007, #844 01.07.07- 31.10.073333 Government resolution of October 31, 2007, #1287 20.06.07-31.12.07 Government resolution of September 26, 2007, #1179 01.01.08- 31.03.082004006003 Government resolution of March 28, 2008, #271 01.04.08- 30.04.08Automatic licens ing Government resolution of April 23, 2008, #418 01.01.08- 01.07.081200900 Government resolution of May 21, 2008, #470 Both quotas and licenses were cancelled

25. Ukraine: Estimated exporters’ losses from VAT refund delays Share of paid VAT in export price*16.67% The VAT refund delay6 months Credit rates12% Exporter losses (16.67х0.5х12), % to export price 10%

26. Ukraine: Public Associations in the Ag Sector TitleActivity field of members LeaderPossible source of information Functional Ukrainian Grain Association Export and production of grain Klymenko Volodymyr – President http://www.uga-port.org.ua All-Ukrainian Baker Association Bread bakingSlabovskyi Volodymyr – President http://www.vap.org.ua Union of Poultry Raisers of Ukraine Poultry meat production Bakumenko Olexandr – Chairman of Board http://www.ptaha.kiev.ua UkrKhlibProm Association Bread bakingVasylchenko Olexandr – Board Chairman http://ukrhlibprom.org.ua TvarynProm Corporation Meat productionGnatiuk Sergiy – Director General http://www.minagro.gov.ua/page/ ?718 Union of Agricultural Exchanges of Ukraine Exchange trade in agricultural produce Berenshtein Borys – Director General http://www.sabu.org.ua

27. Ukraine: Public Associations in the Ag Sector TitleActivity field of membersLeaderPossible source of information Horizontal Union of Agricultural Enterprises of Ukraine Production of agricultural produce Borovyk Olexandr – Chairman http://who-is- who.com.ua/bookmaket /indagrim2007/16/281.h tml Association of Farmers and Private Land Owners Production of agricultural produce Tomich Ivanhttp://who-is- who.com.ua/bookmaket /indagrim2007/16/282.h tml Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation Comprises associations, producers, processors and exporters of agricultural produce Kozachenko Leonid – President http://www.agroconf.org Ukrainian Club of Agricultural Business Production, processing and export of agricultural produce Lissitsa Alex – President http://www.agribusiness.kiev. ua National Agricultural Chamber of Ukraine Production of agricultural produce, advisory activity, wholesale markets of agricultural produce Gladiy Mykhailo – President http://www.agrichamber.org. ua

28. Ukraine: Private information sources Daily news Daily report Weekly report Monthly report Market studies Multi- client studies Studies at request UkrAgroCon sult http://www.ukragroconsult. com/ ****** APK-Informhttp://www.apk- inform.com/ ****** AgroPerspek tiva http://www.agroperspectiva.com/ ****** ProAgrohttp://www.proagro.com.ua***** Agriculturehttp://www.agriagency.com.ua/ ***** AgroOglyadhttp://www.lol.org.ua/****

29. Ukraine: Markets covered by private information sources Grain market Oilseed market Meat market Milk market Sugar market Fruit and Veg. Market UkrAgroCon sult http://www.ukragrocon sult.com/ ***** APK-Informhttp://www.apk- inform.com/ ****** AgroPerspek tiva http://www.agroperspe ctiva.com/ **** ProAgrohttp://www.proagro.co m.ua/ *** Agriculturehttp://www.agriagency. com.ua/ *** AgroOglyadhttp://www.lol.org.ua/*

30. ROUND TABLE THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS IN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN GRAIN SECTOR ORGANIZERS - FAO, EBRD Presentation prepared by Commodity Market Analyst UkrAgroConsult site::www.ukragroconsult.com www.blackseagrain.net