1. 2011: The Year of a Palestinian State ? Limmud Conference

2. The Obama Administration Policy Arab States: Normalization Israel: Settlement Freeze Palestinians: Greater Security Negotiations Leading to Permanent Status Agreement within 2 Years The Middle East peace process has not moved forward. And I think it's fair to say that for all our efforts at early engagement, it is not where I want it to be…If we had anticipated some of these political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high."

3. Israel-US Relations Shared Interests Strong lobby Shared Values US priority: Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran. IL-PL Conflict Linkage (Resolution to Conflict revolves around 67 borders) Jews don’t speak in once voice on Israel. Liberal Jews identify less. AIPAC vs. J-Street Obama less emotionally attached to Israel “this is no longer just about helping a special ally resolve a debilitating problem. With 200,000 American troops committed to two wars in the greater Middle East and the U.S. president leading a major international effort to block Iran’s nuclear program, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become a U.S. strategic imperative” (Martin Indyk) Peace is a central aspects of US National Security

4. Abbas: Between Rock and Hard Place Between US pressure + Arab street + Hamas in Gaza Abbas Problematic Legitimacy (wont run again) Geographical Division + Constitutional Crisis Hamas: Growing Intl Recognition

5. The Search for a Strategy Dissolving PA & Demanding 1 stateUnilateral Declaration..we’re considering declaring a state unilaterally (2/9)..maybe we will demand one binational state " (10/8) maybe we should focus on a state of all its citizens " (11/09) we are determined to achieve a state unilaterally firm in our " (11/09) If negotiations fail the chances of one of these options rise

6. Alternatives to Negotiations Developing “credible alternatives to the traditional two-state solution, such as a one-state, a bi-national state” Fayyad's State Building Popular Resistance International Legitimacy via UN

7. Any two-state solution based on the PA is stillborn. Instead, we should look to a "three- state" approach, where Gaza is returned to Egyptian control and the West Bank in some configuration reverts to Jordanian sovereignty. (John Bolton) Time Relevancy PLO Accepts 242 Crisis of Palestinian Representation Bi-National State International Arena: Erosion of 2 State Solution A state ‘not at any cost’ Split between Gaza & WB Difficult of Separating Jews & Arabs Inability to Settle Core Issues Return of Jordanian Option Confederation "If Israeli and Palestinian leaders fail to sign an agreement on Palestinian statehood in the coming weeks or months, we'll have to prepare ourselves for the next stage (Sari Nusseibeh) “The 2SS is an obsolete paradigm. Linkage or retrocession of the West Bank & Gaza to some form of Egyptian and Jordanian security control has a greater chance of stabilizing the situation Rise of Alternative Paradigms 2SS 1 State Threat 2SS Still Agreed Principle for Solution However Status Quo Likely to Further Erode its Relevancy Palestinian declaration of statehood “If the freeze is not renewed, then yes, maybe this is going to happen…All international players are now in agreement that the Palestinians are ready for statehood at any point in the near future…(UN Special Coordinator for Middle East Peace Process Robert Serry)

8. International Arena & PL Unilateralism Dec 2010: Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil & Bolivia recognize PL State Dec 2010: Euro states (UK, Norway, France, Spain) upgrade diplomatic status of PL representatives. Opposed to PL declaration ‘at this time’ The Relevancy of the Kosovo Model? US Committed to Bilateral Negotiations. Opposed to Unilateral Acts Oct 2010: “Everyone understands that a solution must be negotiated. Everything else is a mirage. They know that. We know that.”

9. Militarized PL State Foreign forces using PL Terrorism and Rocket fire IL Leaves: Security Threat Military Logic: Stay Israel’s Challenge: Balancing Clash of Logics Demographic Burden Erosion of 2SS Logic of Implosion IL Stays: Political Threat Political Logic: Leave What is the main threat from the Palestinians?

10. How to end control over the Palestinians? Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (agreed) PSPB (Return to Roadmap) First Agreement, then PL State End of Conflict, Finality of Claims 2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA Annapolis and OsloThe Road Map

11. IL Govt. Weakness Package Agreement: Structural Issues No ZOPA PL Division PSA Serious Disagreements on Historic Issues + Security Shaky Center Right Coalition Constitutional Crisis: Abbas lacks Legitimacy Increasing Division between Gaza & WB Failure for All lead to worse than Nothing

12. Decoupling Statehood from End of Conflict

13. PSPB Approach: Structural Problems No ZOPA Palestinian Split Hamas may support: Part of Phased Plan; Fatah Not a Partner Growing Split Between Gaza & WB How Will the Agreement be Ratified? PSPB No Palestinian Ratification means No Israeli Ratification An Unratified Agreement May Bring About PA Collapse

14. How to end control over the Palestinians? Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (agreed) No Agreement: Upgrading the PA PSPB (Return to Roadmap) First Agreement, then PL State End of Conflict, Finality of Claims 2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA Systematic Buildup; PL State; Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (de-facto) Building PL State bypasses Constitutional Crisis: Fayyad might be a partner

15. How to Advance the Creation of a State? Gestures Consolidating the Status of Moderate Forces Inside the System Without Strengthening the PA Strengthen PA Actions aimed at strengthening PA’s powers & authorities of within framework of existing agreements. Upgrade PA Systematically transferring powers & authorities above those that exist by virtue of the Interim Agreement Power to Establish Consulates Abroad, Issuing Currency Dayton and Blair’s Actions for Restoring the Palestinian Police Remove Checkpoints, Ease Restrictions, Promote Investment Only Israel Can ‘Upgrade’ the PA

16. The Status of the Interim Agreement No physical border between Israel and West Bank PL state is an Israeli card (IL opposed to symbolic sovereign) Security Fence PL State is an Israeli interest (IL not opposed to symbolic sovereignty Moving towards a PSA (3-5 years) Difficult to achieve PSA in near future

17. Israeli Mindset regarding PL Unilateralism Binary: Either negotiations or unilateralism Palestinian Unilateralism Dangerous: Should be Opposed Certain unilateral moves can go hand in hand with negotiations – towards strengthening 2 State reality Palestinian declaration of statehood poses both challenges and opportunities for Israel Upgrading of PA potentially beneficial to Israel

18. To Lead or be Led? That is the Question With a Plan, Israel Leads Without a Plan Israel gets Led If Israel Wants to Lead – it needs a New Political Strategy If wants to be Led - Not at Expense of ‘Special Relations’

19. Vacuum Filled by Other Suggestions Unilateral Recognition Obama Parameters Borders First Arab Peace Initiative Status Quo Promotes 1SS PSA Unobtainable Agreed PSPB: No Partner Economic Peace Unacceptable

20. International Arena & PL Unilateralism "Kosovo's road to independence featured an earlier declaration of a separate republic, in 1992, which went nowhere because it had no formal governing presence in any part of the territories it claimed as its state. In 2008 meanwhile, Kosovo did have a functional governmental apparatus in at least part of the territory it claimed, and it has subsequently gained a certain critical mass of international recognition."

21. The Palestinian Search for a Strategy Developing “credible alternatives to the traditional two-state solution, such as a one-state, a bi-national state” Secure a UN Security Council Resolution (recognizing Palestine or Arab Peace Initiative Urge US to propose principles for the resolution of all core issues Secure international recognition (Quartet, EU, individual states) of the State of Palestine on the 1967 border Go to International Court of Justice to oppose Israeli occupation

22. Decoupling Statehood from End of Conflict Due to differences in the positions between the two sides and the increasing popularity of the One State Solution among the Palestinians “the best option for both the Israelis and the Palestinians is to seek a less ambitious agreement that transforms the situation on the ground and creates momentum for further negotiations by establishing a Palestinian state within armistice boundaries…Such a gradual, yet comprehensive, approach would be more promising than further attempts at taking daring shortcuts. (Ehud Yaari) Permanent Agreement First Agreement, then PL State End of Conflict, Finality of Claims

23. Relations with the US: From Asset to Liability? Rise of Other Powers: New Multi-Polar World Order? Bottom Up Processes: The Rise of NGOs Delegitimization Network Erosion of Israel’s Legitimacy Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations: Towards a PSA? Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Intl Coalition to Prevent it? Resistance Network: implosion strategy Global and Local Trends Global Local

24. Between Political and Security Logics Military Logic: Control Territory The Price Rises: The Return Decreases Next Campaign: Political Oslo ProcessDefensive Shield DisengagementCast Lead Military Logic: StayPolitical Logic: Leave