1. A case book of the Double Trouble State Park Wildfire (2002) Joseph J. Charney USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, East Lansing, MI Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY

2. DTSP wildfire case study DTSP wildfire event Occurred on 2 June 2002 in east-central NJ An abandoned campfire grew into a major wildfire by 1800 UTC Burned 1,300 acres Forced closure of the Garden State Parkway Damaged or destroyed 36 homes and outbuildings Directly threatened over 200 homes Forced evacuation of 500 homes Caused ~$400,000 in property damage

3. DTSP wildfire event Fire location OKX upper air station KWRI surface station New Brunswick wind profiler

5. Time (UTC)Activity reported 1415 fire tower weather: wind west at 4 m s P −1 P, gusting to 9 m s P −1 P ; temperature 24°C; relative humidity 62% 1700Estimated start time of fire 1709Fire reported by fire tower 1714Direct attack on fire by NJFFS firefighters begins 1725 fire tower reports winds greater than 18 m s P −1 P ; direct attack abandoned 1726Backfiring operations begin north and east of the fire 1731Request submitted for to be closed 1735Backfiring operations begin south of the fire 1747Request submitted for aerial support for fighting the fire 1751Fire jumps and approaches the 1800Fire is officially declared to be a major fire 1801Fire has crossed the 1808First report of a house being burned 1818Wind shift reported on the fire line 1823Fire crews prepare for structure protection 1851Wind shift to the north reported; former right flank of the fire becomes the head fire 1857 fire tower reports winds north at 16 m s P −1 P 1936Big wind shift reported on the fire line 1937fire tower reports winds shifting to the east, northeast 1938Right flank becomes head fire 1953Fire has been diverted south of the line of homes located just east of the 1959Wind shift reported on fire line; electric lines down on roadway 2001House on fire 2004Evacuation order issued for homes in the area 2010Wind shift reported on fire line 2024Wind shift reported on fire line; wind shift causes fire to spread rapidly towards the south directly towards a crew 2055East flank of fire reported to be growing; fire crews respond to quell 2113Fire west of the reported to be contained 2136Fire declared to be under control 2148 fire tower reports winds diminishing to less than 9 m s P −1 P Table 1. Sequence of events during the Double Trouble State Park wildfire from 1415 UTC to 2148 UTC 2 June 2002 [adapted from NJFFS (2003)]

6. Fig. 3. Surface analyses of potential temperature (contour interval 4°C, solid), mixing ratio (value indicated in g kg −1 at station location; contour interval 5 g kg −1, dashed, shaded as indicated in legend), and wind (full barb 5 m s −1 ) valid at (a) 1200 UTC 2 June 2002, (b) 1800 UTC 2 June 2002, and (c) 0000 UTC 3 June 2002. Adapted from surface analyses generated and archived in the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York.

8. Fig. 4. NARR upper-air analyses of (a) geopotential height (contour interval 30 m, solid), temperature (°C, color shaded as indicated in legend), and wind (maximum vector 25 m s P −1 P ) at 1200 UTC 2 June 2002 at 850 hPa, (b) geopotential height (contour interval 120 m, solid), wind speed (m s P −1 P, color shaded as indicated in legend), and wind (maximum vector 75 m s P −1 P ) at 1200 UTC 2 June 2002 at 300 hPa, (c) as in (a) except for 0000 UTC 3 June 2002, and (d) as in (b) except for 0000 UTC 3 June 2002.

11. Fig. 6. Skew T–log p soundings at Upton, NY (OKX), valid at (a) 1200 UTC 2 June 2002 and (b) 0000 UTC 3 June 2002. Adapted from the University of Wyoming weather web page ( TU http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html UT ). TU http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html UT

12. DTSP wildfire observations Observed skew T–log p sounding at Upton, NY (OKX), valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002

14. Wind profiler observations at New Brunswick, NJ, from 1100 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 DTSP wildfire observations

15. Fig. 8. Surface meteograms from 0000 UTC to 2300 UTC 2 June 2002 for (a) McGuire Air Force Base, NJ (WRI), and (b) Atlantic City, NJ (ACY). Adapted from the Plymouth State Weather Center web page ( TU http://vortex.plymouth.edu/statlog-u.html UT ). TU http://vortex.plymouth.edu/statlog-u.html UT

16. Fig. 12. Northwest– southeast-oriented vertical cross section of simulated relative humidity (%, color shaded as indicated in legend) and pressure-coordinate vertical velocity (contour interval 10 dPa s −1, solid, starting at 10 dPa s −1 ) valid at (a) 1500 UTC 2 June 2002, (b) 1600 UTC 2 June 2002, (c) 1700 UTC 2 June 2002, and (d) 1800 UTC 2 June 2002. The fire location is indicated by the fire icon at 208 km on the abscissa of the cross section. The location of the cross section is indicated by the thick black line in Fig. 10.

17. Fig. 13. Time series at the fire location valid from 1200 UTC 2 June 2002 to 0000 UTC 3 June 2002 of simulated (a) surface relative humidity (%), (b) surface wind speed (m s P −1 P ), and (c) PBL depth (m). The fire location is indicated by the fire icon in Fig. 10.

18. Fig. 14. Time–height cross section at the fire location valid from 1200 UTC 2 June 2002 to 0000 UTC 3 June 2002 of simulated (a) relative humidity (%, color shaded as indicated in legend) and (b) wind speed (m s P −1 P, color shaded as indicated in legend). The fire location is indicated by the fire icon in Fig. 10.

19. Fig. 9. Simulated surface relative humidity (%, color shaded as indicated in legend) and surface wind (full barb 5 m s P −1 P ) valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002. Fig. 10. Simulated relative humidity (%, color shaded as indicated in legend) at 700 hPa valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002. The fire icon indicates the fire location and the thick black line shows the orientation of the vertical cross section in Fig. 12.

20. Simulated skew T–log p sounding at OKX valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002 MRF DTSP wildfire simulations WRF simulations initialized at 1200 UTC 1 June 2002

21. Simulated skew T–log p sounding at OKX valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002 YSU DTSP wildfire simulations

22. MYJ Simulated skew T–log p sounding at OKX valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002 DTSP wildfire simulations

23. MYNN Simulated skew T–log p sounding at OKX valid at 0000 UTC 3 June 2002 DTSP wildfire simulations

24. MRF DTSP wildfire simulations Simulated skew T–log p sounding at the fire location valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002

25. YSU DTSP wildfire simulations Simulated skew T–log p sounding at the fire location valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002

26. MYJ DTSP wildfire simulations Simulated skew T–log p sounding at the fire location valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002

27. MYNN DTSP wildfire simulations Simulated skew T–log p sounding at the fire location valid at 1800 UTC 2 June 2002

28. DTSP wildfire simulations Time series at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated surface temperature

29. DTSP wildfire simulations Time series at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated surface mixing ratio

30. DTSP wildfire simulations Time series at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated surface wind speed

31. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated temperature

32. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated temperature

33. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated temperature

34. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated temperature

35. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated mixing ratio

36. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated mixing ratio

37. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated mixing ratio

38. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated mixing ratio

39. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated wind speed

40. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated wind speed

41. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated wind speed

42. DTSP wildfire simulations Vertical profiles at fire location valid from 1200 UTC to 2100 UTC 2 June 2002 of simulated wind speed

43. An intercomparison of the MRF, YSU, MYJ, and MYNN PBL schemes in WRF version 3.1 for the DTSP wildfire event indicates that the behavior of these schemes is consistent with that documented in the literature. The MRF and YSU schemes produce less directional wind shear than the MYJ and MYNN schemes. The diurnal growth of the mixed layer is more gradual in the YSU, MYJ, and MYNN schemes than in the MRF scheme. The YSU and MYNN PBL schemes exhibit a deeper mixed layer than the MYJ scheme. Summary

44. Future work The methodology developed for the DTSP wildfire event will be extended to additional events. Candidates include the Warren Grove (NJ, 2007), Evans Road (NC, 2008), and Cottonville (WI, 2005) wildfires. Aspects to be examined for these events: 1) effects of the entrainment formulation on mixed-layer growth 2) sensitivity of mixing ratio profiles in the mixed layer to the choice of PBL scheme 3) performance of the PBL schemes in high-wind regimes