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Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
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OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher Education Trends analysis –Demography –Technology –Globalisation –Academic research –Labour market Futures scenarios
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Outline Why does demography matter? What can we expect in terms of quantitative changes? What are the qualitative challenges? What will it take to address them?
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Why does demography matter?
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Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments
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Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025 (2005=100) Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006)
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Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under current conditions (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
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Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under recent trends (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
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Total expenditures for tertiary education institutions as % of GDP in 2005, and projected difference by 2025 under scenario 2 (GDP points) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to 1995-2005 growth rate (constant prices)
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Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-64 population
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Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-44 population
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Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments
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Population estimates for the make-up of 18-25 year olds in the United States Source: US Censur Bureau
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Social inequity over time (father’s education) Source: Social Situation Observatory (except Japan, Korea, and Australia)
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Growth in the number of foreign students (2000-2006, 2000=100)
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Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women
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Gender gap in tertiary educational attainment (F-M) by age group No gap in 2005; +18% for youngest cohort if strict projection; >10% ?
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Addressing the quality access challenges
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On your memory stick Higher Education 2030 –Volume 1: Demography Forthcoming: –Volume 2: Technology –Volume 3: Globalisation –Volume 4: Scenarios
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THANK YOU Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin@oecd.org www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures
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