1. OSEMOSYS Steering Committee Meeting, KTH, 24-25, March 2011 SD21 Sustainable Development Scenarios for the Rio+20 Summit A Role for OSEMOSYS? Thailand R. Alexander Roehrl and David le Blanc DESA-DSD

2. 2 UNCSD (“Rio+20 Summit”), Rio de Janeiro, 2012 –www.uncsd2012.orgwww.uncsd2012.org –Objectives: secure renewed political commitment for SD; assess progress and implementation gaps; address emerging challenges. Key themes –“Green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication” –“Institutional framework for sustainable development” Preparatory process –DESA as the Secretariat for the Summit –UN Secretary General’s Global Panel on Sustainability –Panel of Experts on the Transition to a Green Economy –Preparatory meetings and analytical contributions UNCSD (“Rio+20 Summit”

3. 3 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) project, co-funded by EU Project objectives: –Prepare substantive contribution to the “Rio+20 Summit” in 2012 –Take stock since 1992 and propose future vision for sustainable development 9 in-depth studies, 1 flagship publication –Full acknowledgement of contributions (IPCC style) –Study 4: Report on sustainable development scenarios –Study 8: Report on sectoral risks and challenges SD21 project

4. 4 Informal discussion note for today: http://osmosys.yolasite.com/paper-sd21- project.phphttp://osmosys.yolasite.com/paper-sd21- project.php Review of models and sustainable development scenarios since the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 Interactive scenario meta-analysis –To identify robust policies and actions –Classify with hierarchy of ImPACT identities (a la Ausubel) –Reporting template, database, scenario generator? SD21 sustainable development scenarios and representative “marker scenarios” –Beyond energy (3 SD pillars, “soft-linking”, harmonize), policy instruments –Narratives/storylines; Extreme scenario variants; –Collaborative, open-source, open-assumptions OSEMOSYS process? –Based on existing scenarios Meetings and partnerships (SEI, IIASA, PBL, etc.?) Approach

5. 5 Scenario “families” (based on existing scenarios)

6. 6 Example “endpoints”

7. 7 Thank you. roehrl@un.org AH1 India