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Trends in the World Oil Markets 2 nd International Conference Exchange and OTC Petroleum Product Market in Russia Moscow, October 1, 2010 Daniel Brusstar, Director, Energy Research
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Agenda CME Group after NYMEX-merger OTC Oil Market Trends Tighter Government Controls on the Market Recent Developments Volume trends CME Clearing: Looking to the Future 1
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2 CME Group Overview Largest futures exchange in the U.S. and globally by volume Strong record of growth, both organically and through acquisitions –CBOT Holdings (2007) –NYMEX Holdings (2008) Deep liquidity in futures and options –Execution and clearing services for interest rates, equities, energy, commodities, FX, metals Worldwide distribution through CME Globex Proven CME/NYMEX Clearing –Listed futures and options –OTC products via CME ClearPort 1. In this presentation, pro forma results for CME Group assume the acquisitions of CBOT and NYMEX were completed as of the beginning of the period presented. See the CME Group Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Pro Forma Non-GAAP Measures available on our Web site under the Investor Relations section for detail related to the adjustments made to reach the pro forma results.
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Futures and Clearing of OTC Deals Futures are traded on regulated Exchanges Exchanges do not trade, influence or set prices. Price discovery occurs at the exchange either electronically or via “open outcry” in trading pits The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates futures industry and provides oversight of Clearing services Transactions processed and guaranteed by centralized Clearing House Over-the-Counter (OTC) Oil and Refined Products (Physical Deals, Financial Swaps, and Options) are Cleared with Full Credit Protection of a Regulated Clearing House Clearing house requires performance bonds, i.e., Margin, from Clearing Members to secure each transaction Futures and OTC Deals are “marked-to-market” daily (traders pay losses and collect profits daily in cash)
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CME ClearPort Clearing Overview A comprehensive set of flexible clearing services for the OTC market To significantly mitigate your counterparty risk To achieve capital efficiencies To access the advantages of security, efficiency and confidence while still trading off-exchange via brokers or directly with counterparties ClearPort provides clearing services across multiple markets Launched in 2002 to provide centralized clearing for Oil and Natural Gas markets Since then, product breadth, volume and liquidity have grown substantially across Europe, Russia, and Asia
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Clearing = Full Credit Protection OTC Oil Market Trends
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Price Volatility in the Oil Markets Followed by Major Credit Market Problems Due to economic crisis, our energy customers have been forced to change trading and hedging habits Increased risk from financial institutions – no counterparty is safe Cleared Physical Deals Cleared Financial Swaps and Options Clearing of OTC deals through a central counterparty clearing model continues to grow and now dominates energy derivatives markets – increased price transparency and credit mitigation 6
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Recent Developments in the OTC Oil Markets Tighter Government Regulation of Oil Markets in the U.S., Europe, and Russia Global OTC energy derivatives markets now predominantly Cleared due to credit concerns Global oil markets are moving toward the “Cleared” model 7
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New U.S. Regulation of the Oil Market Mandate for clearing of standardized swaps Reporting of ALL cleared and non-cleared swaps Minimum capital requirements Business conduct standards – New core principals for market participants Position limits 8
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Growth in Clearing of Oil Markets Growth in Futures volume for Physical Oil deals Global OTC energy swaps markets now predominantly Cleared due to credit concerns Global oil markets are moving toward the “Cleared” model OTC Clearing of Asian and European Oil contracts grew over 50% in Volume during Past Year 9
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CME Clearing: Looking to the Future
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Tighter Government Regulation Could Lead to Expanded Clearing of Oil Products Trend Towards Expanded Clearing in Asian and Middle East markets CME Interested to Offer Clearing to the Russian Petroleum Markets Extend Clearing to New product sectors, such as LPGs, Petrochemicals, and Plastics Physical Propane, Ethane, Natural Gasoline, and Normal Butane listed on June 14 Physical Ethylene delivered in Mont Belvieu, Texas Polyethylene and Polypropylene Plastics delivered in Houston, Texas CME Clearing Services Extended Globally
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CME Clearing: Key Benefits 16 Mitigate your risk CME Clearing guarantees the performance of each transaction Counterparty risk is shared among clearing members, providing you with additional security Over $100B in margin and financial safeguards* Access to independent valuations Neutral, third-party settlement prices and mark-to-market process enable you to track positions and assess risk Enhance your efficiency Replaces significant time and expense of documentation with real-time trade confirmations and straight-through processing Know your costs Cost of margin offset by reduced expenses from credit assessments and having to manage flow among counterparties A century of experience No CME Group clearing member has failed to meet a performance bond/delivery obligation No customer has lost funds as a result of a clearing member firm failure Note: Financial Safeguards funding reported as of March 31, 2009
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Evolution of CME Clearing ClearPort Clearing Has Served a Market in Crisis (Growth in Average Daily Volumes Cleared) 17 200320042005200620072008 34 different OTC contracts cleared through ClearPort Clearing system Acquisition of NYMEX and ClearPort More than 700 products available for clearing 2009 2002 Dec 2001 Enron bankruptcy May 2002 ClearPort launched (Bar chart illustrates average daily volume in round turns) 510,000
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Questions Daniel Brusstar Daniel.Brusstar@cmegroup.com 212-299-2604
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