1. NCEA Scholarship seminar, HGHS, Dec 1 2005 THE FUTURE OF FILM Geoff Lealand

2. Film, the past 100 years or so, has been characterised by: Integrated systems of production, distribution and exhibition--formerly based around the studio system (especially in the USA); now based around global media companies (eg Sony, Viacom) Physical distribution of film prints, firstly in home territories ( eg USA), then distributed globally-- preceded by massive marketing campaigns The box office from theatrical (cinema) release (especially in the USA) is the first measure of success, followed by the ‘foreign’ b.o.,video/DVD rentals and ‘sell-through’ sales, to pay TV or FTA TV etc

3. But technology is changing rapidly … … it is increasingly a digital world The same basic recording technique used to make the film can now be used to deliver it.. A process that used to go celluloid-videotape-analogue, losing quality at each step, now goes digital-digital-digital Nick Roddick ‘Armchair Cinema. Screen International Oct 21 2005 When it comes to the future of entertainment…it will be digital…No longer a mass, but a million-fold audience of just one, each one of us now has the ability now to decide what, when, how and where they[sic] want to listen, read, watch, or interact. Creed O’Hanlon ‘End of Daze’, Cinefile Nov 10 2005

4. Film is going digital, as with … Music An estimated 23.5m iPods will be sold in 2006. Downloads, through sites such as iTunes, and downloaded ring-tones now exceed the sales of conventional singles Television Audiences for free-to-air, mainstream TV channels are declining across the globe (including NZ), as a result of audience fragmentation (more channels; competition from digital pay TV services) + new recording/storage devices ( eg TiVo, WebTV, downloads on to portable devices)

5. The financial base of film is shifting Mass audiences are still very important as the primary measure of success (b.o.), but DVD sales now represent 60% of the total gross (income) for a Hollywood feature film. In respect of Hollywood (American) film, foreign markets are more important than domestic markets--up to 60% of profits come from foreign audiences for American films

6. Hollywood has long dominated the world English language films (aka American) occupy 54% of the global b.o. (English is the first language of 16.4% of the world’s population) Foreign Affairs, July/August 2005 The ten most profitable films of all time are all American: Gone With the Wind/Star Wars/The Sound of Music/Titanic/The Ten Commandments/Jaws ….

7. The audience base of film is also shifting (1) In 2005, the US cinema business experienced the longest slump in its 100 year history. Audiences also declined in Asia and Australia [OHT ‘Territorial losses’] Increasingly, cinema release and DVD release are being synchronised, as ‘multimedia single openings’ In many cases, the film itself is secondary to ‘spin- offs’ and ancillary merchandising eg computer games

8. The audience base … (2) An increasing number of films now go ‘straight to video’ (DVD) or pay-TV, without a cinema release [OHT ‘Windows of Opportunity’] DVD sales are slowing globally but there is a new, flourishing market for unrated titles [OHT ‘Uninhibited, Uncut, Unrated DVDs’] In the UK, for example, 171 million cinema tickets were sold in 2004, but 234 million videotapes and DVDs were sold in the same year (Roddick, 2005)

9. A brave new world? Maybe. But if the business continues to regard these developments as a threat--as a disruption to the cashflow which has kept the studios and their international distribution subsidiaries profitable for three-quarters of a century--then Hollywood will quickly go the way of Detroit. If, on the other hand, it embraces such changes, its impressive economic muscle will be further toned. It has, after all, access to the one thing that technology itself cannot supply: content. (Roddick, 2005)

10. The more things change…(1) Hollywood is not the only--nor the largest-- film industry in the world. In 2003, India produced more than 1100 films, nearly double the amount produced in the USA Robust film industries also persist in countries such as France, Hong Kong and Mexico--often assisted by cultural subsidies

11. The more things change … (2) Language and/or cultural barriers privilege local production in the world’s largest population centres (eg Asia has 57% of the world’s population). Currently China imports little more than two dozen English language films annually. In some countries, the number of cinema outlets are increasing. In New Zealand, for example, new multiplexes are being built in Auckland, Wellington and Hamilton. Falling audiences may have as much to do with the poor quality of current film releases as changing technology?

12. Film as an enduring social ritual When I sit down next to you in a movie theatre, we get to share each other’s point of view. We become part of a collective soul. That’s the magic in the movies M Night Shyamalan (Dir. The Sixth Sense, The Village) in Gubbins (2005) ‘Windows of opportunity’ What other ritualistic aspects of the cinema experience might ensure its survival?