1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use What is Happening to the American Church? Nobody seems to know an authoritative answer. We hear snippets: Mainline churches have been declining in membership across the country for 40 consecutive years. Evangelical churches seem to be holding their own. Classic fundamentalist churches have lost their voice, as have Pentecostals. The Catholic Church reports increased membership nationally, but how has the acute priest shortage and the abuse scandal affected mass attendance? Many observers sense that large churches are getting larger and small churches are getting smaller. These 12 fascinating facts present a snapshot of what is really happening in the American Church.

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1. The Percentage of People that Attend a Christian Church each Weekend is Far Below what Pollsters Report. According to both Gallup and Barna, 43% of American adults attend church on a typical weekend. But are people telling the truth about their behavior? Do people overestimate their church attendance when polled? Yes! The actual rate of attendance from ‘head counts’ is less than half of what the pollsters report. Numbers from actual counts of people in orthodox Christian churches show that 18.7% of the population attended a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000. * This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches (Catholic, Evangelical, Mainline or Orthodox churches). Approximately 3 million people a weekend attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 2 million attend a religious service of another religion. This would add another 35,000 ‘houses of worship’ to the 300,000 Christian churches and would increase the 2000 percentage of attendance to 20.5%.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

5. 2. The Percentage of People Attending a Christian Church each Weekend Decreased Significantly from 1990 - 2004. Numbers from actual counts of people in orthodox Christian churches show that 20.4% of the population attended church on any given weekend in 1990. That percentage dropped to 18.7% by 2000. Mainline denominations and the Catholic church are declining the fastest, while evangelical denominations declined slightly from 1990 – 2000. The Catholic church’s decline occurred even though its membership numbers are keeping up with population growth.

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

7. 3. Christian church attendance is between 1 ½ and 2 times higher in the South and the Midwest than it is in the West and the Northeast. The next slide shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in every state in 2000. Dark yellow states have the highest percentage of attendance, while white states have the lowest rate of attendance. The map graphically shows that the Southern and Midwest regions have the highest percentage of people in a Christian church on any given weekend, while the Northeast and West lag behind.

8. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

9. 4. Only One State Saw an Increase in the Percentage Attending Church from 1990 - 2000. The next slide highlights those states that grew in percentage of the population attending church (red states) and those that declined (blue states.) The only state to grow in the percentage of the population attending church was Hawaii. However, California, Connecticut, Georgia and Washington were close to keeping up with population growth.

10. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

11. 5. The Percentage That Attends Church On Any Given Weekend is Declining In Over Two Thirds Of The Counties In The United States. The next slide shows each county’s growth or decline between 1990 and 2000 in the percentage of the population that attended a Christian Church. Rose counties increased while blue counties declined. 2,303 counties declined and 795 increased. Among the states that had the highest percentage of declining counties were Minnesota, Wisconsin and South Carolina.

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

13. 6. Evangelicals, Mainliners And Catholics Are Strongest In Very Different Regions Of The Country. The next three maps show the relative strength of each group throughout the country. The darker shaded counties have higher percentages of the population attending church, while the lighter shaded counties have lower percentages of the population attending church.

14. Complete Presentation has Graph of Evangelical Worship Attendance by County

15. Complete Presentation has Graph of Mainline Worship Attendance by County

16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

17. 7. Churches With 50 – 299 People In Attendance Are Shrinking, While The Smallest Churches And The Larger Churches Are Growing. The following research is from a study of 120,000 Protestant Churches, one half evangelical and one half mainline. It is based on churches that were started before 1990 (so it is possible to get a ten year growth rate (referred to as the Decadal Growth Rate)). The next slide shows how churches grew, divided into categories by their attendance size in 1990. The smallest churches and the large churches grew most. Churches in the middle (an attendance of 50 – 299) are being squeezed. Note that even the fastest growing column (churches from 1000 – 1999) is still far below population growth for the decade (13.2%).

18. Complete Presentation has Graph of Growth Rates by Size of Church

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 8. Established Churches, From 40 – 180 Years Old, On Average Decline In Attendance. The next slide is from a study of 70,000 established churches that were over 10 years old in 1990. It tracked their yearly growth rate over the next 10 years by the decade in which the churches were started. The startling result is that every decade of churches that were started from 1840 to 1960 have declined in attendance! (This uses only attendance numbers, and does not even consider the effect of population growth.)

20. Complete Presentation has Graph of Growth Rate of Existing Churches by Decade Started

21. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 9. The Increase In The Number Of Churches Is Only About One Eighth Of What Is Needed To Keep Up With Population Growth. The next slide shows the increase in the number of churches from 1990-2000. The fourth column shows the net gain – 4,600 more churches in a decade. The final column shows the number of new churches that would have been needed in that decade to keep up with population growth (13.2% more churches = 38,802). That means the net gain in churches is about one eighth of what would have been needed to keep up with population growth,

22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

23. 10. The Church Planting Rate Has Been Declining Throughout The History Of Our Country. The next slide is based on over 90,000 Protestant churches. It shows how many churches were started and still survive today for every million people in the United States for each year. The church planting rate was quite consistent from 1800 to 1890, with the exception of the Civil War. Another drop came during World War I and the depression. After a spike from 1947 – 1957, the rate dropped until 1970, and has stayed there ever since. (As many older churches have since closed, the true decline in the church planting rate in recent years is even greater than shown)

24. Complete Presentation has Graph of Churches Started per Million Population

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 11. Existing Churches Are Plateauing And New Church Growth Provides Less Than Half Of The Growth Necessary To Keep Up With Population Growth. The existing church growth rate plus the additional growth from new churches must equal the population growth rate, or else the American church will decline in percentage of population attending church. The following slide shows the attendance gains of Protestant churches: Established churches grew by 0.8% in the decade. Church plants added another 5.0%. Therefore, Protestant groups grew by a total of 5.7%. However, Population Growth was 13.2%.

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

27. 12. If the Present Trends Continue, The Percentage Of The Population That Attends Church In 2050 Will Be Almost Half Of What It Is Today. The following chart shows the actual 1990 and 2000 percentages, followed by estimates for 2010, 2020 and 2050. This was done by using each denomination’s growth or decline rate from 1990 – 2000 and assuming the same rate of change for the next 10, 20 and 50 years.

28. Complete Presentation has Graph of Projected Attendance Percentage in 2010, 2020 and 2050

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually many fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.

30. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 2 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

31. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use For More Information... Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.The AmericanChurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com.