1. www.pol.ac.uk The Live rpo ol Bay Coastal Observatory John Howarth, Roger Proctor, Phil Knight, Mike Smithson Real-time measurements Real-time modelling Web display An integrated monitoring system and research tool

2. Coastal Observatory - objectives Water quality eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, pollution Impacts of climate change Habitats / biodiversity Natural and anthropogenic changes cf National & EU directives, UN resolutions Ecosystem based approach to marine management Search & Rescue / Accidents Engineering – coastal, offshore – design, operation Climate & biogeochemical cycling Coastal ocean dynamics and ecosystem Turbulent mixing and biophysical interactions Education, outreach Time series & real time

3. Proof of concept (2001 – 2007 / 2012) Pre-operational near real time measurements test models Evolutionary Framework anyone can join process studies Basic data / model output free Data management by BODC Audience researchers, managers, general public, education Steering group Guiding principles Irish Sea Liverpool Bay Dee Estuary Mersey Estuary

4. Why the Irish Sea ? Semi-enclosed Simple bathymetry Tides – wide variation Low runoff most in east Lateral salinity gradients Stratified & well- mixed regions Weak advection (ann. av. north 2cm/s) Pulsed storm events

5. Integrated measurements Variety of space and time scales Real time Multi-disciplinary Measurements and models In situ time series Sites A and B Spatial survey HF Radar Ferry Satellite B A

6. Monitoring at the right scale After Dickey Range of strategies

7. Waves Dec 2002 – Aug 2006 (ADCP) Winds April 2004 – Sept 2006

8. Wind spectrum Correlation Scalar = 0.988 Vector = 0.849 T z Correlation0.67 / 0.96 Mean diff 0.97 / 0.69 (ADCP periods longer than buoy’s)

9. River discharge (Dee + Mersey + Ribble)

11. Tides - M 2 Site A – blue Site B – red + ADCP * Radar

12. Other tidal constituents (site A) O1M4M6O1M4M6

13. Correlation coefficient 0.63 cf bottom stress

14. Residual currents Site B 5 April 2005 – 22 Sept 2006 Near surface 0.045 m s -1 Near bed 0.030 m s -1 Sandwaves 7 Aug 2002 – 21 Sept 2006 Near surface 0.025 m s -1 Near bed 0.040 m s -1 Site A

15. Mean current compared with theory

16. HF radar coverage Coverage over mooring sites Comparisons with in situ waves and current measurements (A&B) First principal component (41% variance) 157 4 km cells

17. Spectra of residual currents HF radar Clockwise Anti-clockwise First principal component

18. Temperature Salinity Depth-averaged Surface minus bed Four years CTD data (38 visits) Mersey Bar 97 % 13 %

19. Surface - bed at site A – all CTDs (251)

20. 25 hour stations profiles every 30 minutes 9/10 May 2006 11/12 May 2004

22. Surface to bed differences November 2002 – March 2006 Temperature Salinity

23. 19 April – 18 June 2004 Temperature Salinity Surface - SmartBuoy Bed frame Mersey Bar

24. Site B November 2005 5m below surface – blue Sea bed frame - red Temperature Salinity

25. Wind and waves Amplitude Direction Salinity Sites A and B

26. Liverpool Viking, Birkenhead - Belfast Instruments CTD – SeaBird SeaCat SBE Turbidity – Sea Point Fluorimeter – Chelsea Minitracka II Intake 3m below surface Sample interval – 30 seconds Data transmission – Orbcomm Start date – December 2003

27. Ferry – buoy(Site A) Temp: r=0.99, sd=0.65 °C, mean=0.11°C,n=2599 Salinity: r=-0.05, sd=1.42, n=1117

28. Temperature - Birkenhead to Belfast Green Max / Min Blue Mean Red Mean±sd 2004/5 South of IOM

29. Data Assimilation (EnOI) Isabel Andreu-Burillo 22/10/04 forecast SAF-constrained 22/10/04 forecast (SAF+FB)- constrained 22/10/04 forecast free simulation 21/10/04 (SAF+FB) observations

30. Nutrients

31. Nitrate

32. Mean winter currents

33. Planned Operational models for Coastal Observatory To run on POL cluster 12km FOAM 1/9 degree (T,S, ζ, Q) AMM-12km MRCS -7km IRS -1.8km LB-200m Real-time River inputs Met forcing, mesoscale 12km resolution (5km soon?) Daily nowcasts/forecasts physics (T,S, ζ, U,V, waves), spm, light, nutrients, biology

34. MRCS, began 2002, 5-day forecast near real-time SST BT CHL ZOO POLCOMS – ERSEM: MERSEA 55 state variables

35. Model - buoy comparisons

36. Web site – http://coastobs.pol.ac.uk Registration Over 500 registrations General public (55%) Researchers (20%) Coastal Managers (10%) Teachers (10%) Other (5%)

37. Future Trace metal, benthic nutrient flux; dissolved oxygen, turbulence, pH, pCO 2, biofouling, CDOM instrumented ferry nutrients, water sampler Improve data quality – eg salinity Full suite of real time coupled hydrodynamic, wave and ecological models, inc Liverpool Bay salinity, circulation, light penetration, data assimilation Data interpretation; synthesis of models & measurements National, European and International collaboration 2007-12 (more ferries, third in situ site, drifters, gliders) Links to policy: r esearch -> sustained

38. Conclusions 4 years measurements Measurements test models Assessment of eutrophication status of Liverpool Bay Questions Variability of horizontal and vertical gradients Circulation Residual energy at tidal frequencies Ebb – flood inequality Events

39. International workshops on coastal observatories First on 17-19 October 2006 in Liverpool, UK “ Best practice in the synthesis of long-term observations and models” Covering aspects of utilisation of time series, data assimilation, optimisation (design) of observing systems, model configuration For programme see. http://www.pol.ac.uk/home/coastal_obs_workshop http://cobs.pol.ac.uk/home/news/events.php

40. Why the Irish Sea ? Nutrient loading from Atlantic, atmosphere & rivers – elevated levels, EIS eutrophic?, HABs Estuaries with different human impact (Dee-agricultural, Mersey-industrial ) Large human impact Focus of Government activity - Biodiversity action plans - EU Water Framework and other directives - Offshore Renewable Energy - Marine Bill (UK and EU) Historical industrial legacy

41. Glider – 22 days; 1,000 km; 4,235 profiles ( 26 October – 17 November 2005)