1. The prognosis for long-term youth unemployment Tony Wilson, Policy Director Centre for Economic & Social Inclusion @tonywilsoncesi www.cesi.org.uk

2. We know the headlines – near record youth unemployment...

3. Since recession, now clear that young have fared much worse than older

4. And worst of all: long-term unemployment quadrupled in last decade and still rising

5. Areas: those with highest unemployment have seen largest rises Local Authority level youth unemployment, 2008 and now

6. Blaenau Gwent Hartlepool South Tyneside Merthyr Tydfil Wolverhampton Redcar and Cleveland Sandwell Derry Limavady Knowsley Middlesbrough North Ayrshire Strabane Walsall Caerphilly Kingston upon Hull Areas: those with highest unemployment have seen largest rises

7. The Government’s five priorities... Building Engagement, Building Futures, Dec 2011 1.Raising educational attainment 2.Full participation in education or work for 16-17 year olds Raising the Participation Age 3.Employer engagement Expansion of apprenticeships, work experience 4.Supporting those out of work to get into work Through Jobcentre Plus and Work Programme 5.Delivering the Youth Contract Wage subsidies, support for low qualified

8. The Government’s five priorities... Building Engagement, Building Futures, Dec 2011 1.Raising educational attainment 2.Full participation in education or work for 16-17 year olds Raising the Participation Age 3.Employer engagement Expansion of apprenticeships, work experience 4.Supporting those out of work to get into work Through Jobcentre Plus and Work Programme 5.Delivering the Youth Contract Wage subsidies, support for low qualified

9. But is this enough? Work Programme Underperformed... (but not as much as some claim) DWP handed back to Treasury £250 million in underspends this year Youth Contract Likely low take-up – below 10,000 a year? Probably 70%+ will be “deadweight”...... So net impact of 2-3,000? We’re spending less per person on support for long- term unemployed than any time since 1990s

10. 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Community Programme Community Action Young Person’s Guarantee/ FJF New Deal for Young People Adult Employment Subsidy Young Workers Scheme Workstart pilot National Insurance Contributions holiday Six Month Offer Youth Contract New Deal employer options Training and job creation/ work experience Wage subsidies + a wealth of international evidence A potted history...

11. And many of these worked – for e.g.

12. So what can we do about it?!

13. First, tackle complexity – local leadership and shared objectives are critical Work Programme City Deals SFA Support for Unemployed Mandatory Work Activity Community Action Programme JCP Flexible Support Fund Work Choice EFA Youth Contract DWP Youth Contract Local Authority provision DWP work experience Talent Match Apprenticeships Traineeships

14. Second, more support for longest unemployed Pool/ align funding to enable local partnerships to create quality work experience/ real jobs Youth Contract wage subsidy; a bit of skills money; bit of Work Programme; Growth Fund; ESF; VCS/ LA/ employer cash Deliver through Work Programme – reaching longest-term unemployed Learn from what worked before And deliver for all

15. Third, relentless focus on youth unemployment To stop people reaching twelve months The right (and more) support to find and apply for jobs Improving confidence, self-esteem, motivation Some targeted support to improve skills for those with low/ no quals – small scale, relevant to jobs market, holistic Tackle negative signals to employers – keep going with work experience schemes

16. The prognosis for long-term youth unemployment Tony Wilson, Policy Director Centre for Economic & Social Inclusion @tonywilsoncesi www.cesi.org.uk