1. Skills jobseekers need in the modern labour market Paul Bivand Associate Director of Analysis & Statistics Inclusion

2. What is the shape of the labour market as recession ebbs? Analysed recruitment patterns in Scotland using Labour Force Survey Since 2011, 707,000 people starting new jobs in Scotland 314,000 a year – on average

3. The pattern by occupation

4. The pattern by skill level

5. Patterns of recruitment The largest occupation groups for recruitment are (high turnover) : – Elementary jobs – Sales and customer service But, employers are recruiting at above entry level 64,000 recruits for elementary jobs a year Only 30,000 people below Level 2 starting work (a year)

6. Employment rates by qualification

7. Qualifications of employed and workless

8. Vacancy trends ONS vacancy survey doesn’t give Scotland figures Jobcentre vacancy figures ended November 2012 Universal Jobmatch figures started straight after

9. Jobcentre vacancies to November 2012

10. Universal Jobmatch vacancies

11. JCP new vacancies – ratio to new JSA claims (to Nov 2012)

12. Same measure for occupations Date 911 : Elemen tary Agricul tural Occupa tions 912 : Elemen tary Constr uction Occupa tions 913 : Elemen tary Proces s Plant Occupa tions 914 : Elemen tary Goods Storag e Occupa tions 921 : Elemen tary Admini stratio n Occupa tions 922 : Elemen tary Person al Service s Occupa tions 923 : Elemen tary Cleanin g Occupa tions 924 : Elemen tary Securit y Occupa tions 925 : Elemen tary Sales Occupa tions 811 : Proces s Operati ves 812 : Plant And Machin e Operati ves 813 : Assem blers And Routin e Operati ves 814 : Constr uction Operati ves 821 : Transp ort Drivers And Operati ves 822 : Mobile Machin e Drivers And Operati ves 711 : Sales Assista nts And Retail Cashier s 712 : Sales Relate d Occupa tions 721 : Custo mer Service Occupa tions 41 : Admini strative Occupa tions 42 : Secret arial and Relate d Occupa tions 51 : Skilled Agricul tural Trades 52 : Skilled Metal and Electro nic Trades 53 : Skilled Constr uction and Buildin g Trades 54 : Textile s, Printin g and Other Skilled Trades 61 : Caring Person al Service Occupa tions 62 : Leisure and Other Person al Service Occupa tions Sep-080.40.30.4 7.91.92.83.30.11.00.70.80.70.80.50.88.92.20.91.30.41.50.51.72.71.1 Oct-080.3 9.11.62.73.00.20.70.40.6 0.50.77.62.10.91.20.31.20.51.62.51.0 Nov-080.3 0.40.36.41.62.53.30.40.70.40.50.6 0.50.87.31.70.81.30.31.10.51.62.41.0 Dec-080.20.30.40.36.41.32.33.00.60.80.40.5 0.69.81.30.81.10.50.80.41.22.00.8 Jan-090.3 6.51.32.13.70.60.90.50.40.5 0.40.69.11.20.71.20.50.70.41.11.80.8 Feb-090.30.20.30.26.21.11.93.40.60.80.40.30.50.40.30.68.91.00.71.00.40.60.41.11.80.7 Mar-090.3 0.26.71.31.93.30.60.80.40.30.5 0.30.77.61.10.71.10.30.60.41.21.60.9 Apr-090.20.3 5.61.21.92.30.70.90.50.4 0.50.40.78.20.90.71.00.30.50.31.21.70.9 May-090.20.3 6.11.32.01.80.70.90.4 0.50.40.68.61.00.61.20.30.50.31.21.70.9 Jun-090.20.3 6.21.22.11.80.80.90.40.50.40.60.40.610.31.10.71.20.20.40.31.31.70.9 Jul-090.20.30.2 5.01.32.1 0.70.80.20.50.40.60.30.512.31.10.61.20.30.40.31.31.60.9 Aug-090.20.30.2 7.81.12.02.60.50.80.30.4 0.60.40.512.41.10.61.10.30.40.31.31.51.0 Sep-090.2 0.49.81.01.82.50.50.70.60.40.50.60.5 12.01.10.51.20.3 1.21.61.0 Oct-090.20.30.20.512.00.91.72.20.60.7 0.50.6 0.510.31.10.51.20.30.40.31.21.61.0 Nov-090.3 0.69.01.11.82.20.71.20.7 0.60.7 0.612.41.20.61.30.30.50.41.21.70.9 Dec-090.20.30.40.55.01.21.82.20.71.10.50.7 0.511.91.10.61.30.20.50.41.21.60.8 Jan-100.20.30.50.46.01.31.72.30.61.40.50.70.60.80.70.515.71.30.61.30.10.60.41.31.60.8 Feb-100.10.4 0.37.21.21.62.30.51.10.50.60.50.8 0.518.71.30.51.20.00.50.41.11.50.8 Mar-100.20.4 11.31.11.62.20.61.40.50.80.50.91.00.520.01.60.51.20.10.5 1.11.50.9 Apr-100.20.50.40.310.11.11.52.30.61.20.50.70.50.91.20.515.11.70.61.20.20.5 1.21.50.9 May-100.20.50.3 9.01.21.51.80.61.10.70.60.50.91.10.59.91.90.51.30.30.5 1.21.40.9 Jun-100.20.50.30.26.41.11.41.90.41.10.8 0.61.01.20.49.41.80.51.20.20.50.61.11.30.8 Jul-100.20.50.30.25.90.91.31.50.41.00.70.80.70.91.20.410.31.80.41.10.20.5 1.01.10.8 Aug-100.20.50.2 6.20.81.21.80.40.90.60.70.81.01.10.413.01.30.50.80.20.5 1.01.20.8 Sep-100.20.40.2 6.40.71.12.00.50.80.60.50.70.9 0.412.61.20.40.70.30.50.41.01.20.7 Oct-100.20.40.2 6.40.81.22.30.40.70.50.6 1.00.70.412.61.10.50.70.30.50.41.11.20.7 Nov-100.20.40.3 5.90.91.32.20.51.00.50.90.50.90.80.410.21.20.60.80.30.60.41.2 0.7 Dec-100.20.4 6.90.81.22.10.41.00.40.80.71.00.90.49.31.20.60.80.20.70.41.2 0.7 Jan-110.10.4 6.40.81.22.50.41.00.50.80.71.01.10.410.51.60.50.80.20.80.51.11.40.7 Feb-110.20.50.40.36.80.81.02.90.30.80.60.71.0 1.40.411.71.60.40.60.10.90.61.11.40.8 Mar-110.20.50.4 6.30.81.13.10.30.90.60.91.00.91.60.415.51.50.40.60.10.80.61.21.60.8 Apr-110.30.50.3 8.40.71.12.90.20.70.50.71.11.01.60.417.11.20.40.70.10.80.61.21.50.8 May-110.20.50.40.39.00.71.13.00.31.00.40.61.1 1.60.315.51.20.40.70.10.90.61.11.60.7 Jun-110.30.60.3 9.20.71.12.70.51.00.50.41.11.21.70.315.21.30.40.80.20.90.71.01.60.7 Jul-110.30.60.3 8.10.61.13.30.41.00.60.41.31.21.80.317.21.30.40.70.20.90.61.01.60.7 Aug-110.30.5 0.616.20.71.23.10.41.10.90.41.31.11.90.217.51.40.40.80.31.20.61.12.00.7 Sep-110.20.60.40.724.00.61.33.20.11.00.90.41.61.21.90.215.01.40.50.80.31.30.71.32.20.9 Oct-110.20.60.40.825.40.71.43.00.11.00.90.51.51.22.00.320.11.50.61.00.41.60.81.42.31.0 Nov-110.20.70.40.517.20.81.53.20.10.70.80.91.2 1.70.327.61.50.71.20.41.40.91.32.31.0 Dec-110.20.60.50.49.40.81.43.40.40.80.90.80.91.01.70.430.21.40.61.20.21.40.81.32.51.0 Jan-120.5 0.38.70.81.42.80.61.00.9 1.50.426.61.30.61.10.11.30.81.32.81.0 Feb-120.40.5 0.314.00.71.32.70.61.2 0.61.51.11.80.319.11.30.50.90.11.50.81.23.01.2 Mar-120.40.50.4 12.20.71.32.70.61.3 0.71.51.21.50.316.31.30.60.90.11.50.81.23.21.2 Apr-120.10.60.4 13.70.71.33.50.51.21.30.61.61.31.40.320.51.50.60.90.21.40.81.03.31.1 May-120.10.60.50.412.00.71.24.60.51.31.20.71.51.31.40.324.51.50.70.90.21.50.9 3.30.9 Jun-120.10.70.50.416.10.81.35.30.51.31.20.71.61.51.60.325.41.80.81.00.21.61.00.93.30.8 Jul-120.20.70.4 27.60.81.24.30.41.21.10.61.91.72.10.215.01.80.91.00.31.81.21.03.40.8 Aug-120.30.70.30.525.90.61.13.00.20.60.90.41.82.22.50.217.81.80.91.20.31.61.11.03.40.8 Sep-120.20.70.30.626.40.51.12.50.00.80.70.31.92.62.50.222.62.10.91.20.41.61.21.03.50.8

13. And for local authorities Date Aberd een City Aberd eensh ire Angu s Argyll and Bute Clack mann anshi re Dumf ries and Gallo way Dund ee City East Ayrsh ire East Dunb arton shire East Lothi an East Renfr ewshi re Edinb urgh City of Eilean Siar Falkir kFife Glasg ow City Highl and Inver clyde Midlot hian Mora y North Ayrsh ire North Lanar kshire Orkne y Islan ds Perth and Kinro ss Renfr ewshi re Scotti sh Borde rs Shetl and Islan ds South Ayrsh ire South Lanar kshire Stirlin g West Dunb arton shire West Lothi an Sep-092.10.70.60.90.41.10.80.50.40.50.31.10.5 0.60.70.80.6 1.00.40.61.11.30.5 1.10.80.60.70.40.6 Oct-091.90.60.50.80.41.10.70.40.5 0.31.10.5 0.60.70.80.90.61.00.40.51.01.10.50.71.40.80.6 0.40.8 Nov-091.70.60.50.70.41.10.70.4 0.60.31.20.5 0.7 0.91.40.60.90.40.61.01.10.50.71.80.90.6 0.30.9 Dec-091.50.70.60.80.51.00.80.5 0.70.41.20.70.60.8 1.01.40.70.90.40.61.01.20.60.82.00.90.70.80.41.1 Jan-101.60.70.60.90.50.9 0.5 0.60.41.30.7 0.90.81.01.10.60.80.40.61.11.30.60.71.71.00.61.00.40.9 Feb-101.60.70.60.90.50.9 0.50.6 0.41.30.60.80.9 1.00.70.50.90.40.61.11.30.60.71.30.90.71.10.40.9 Mar-101.60.70.60.80.40.80.90.40.6 0.31.40.60.9 1.00.60.50.90.30.61.01.30.50.71.41.00.71.00.40.8 Apr-101.80.80.60.80.50.90.80.40.7 0.31.50.70.90.80.91.00.6 1.00.30.60.91.30.60.81.31.00.80.90.40.8 May-101.80.80.60.80.70.90.80.40.60.70.41.30.8 0.91.00.60.71.00.50.60.71.30.60.81.21.00.9 0.40.8 Jun-101.80.90.60.70.60.90.80.40.50.70.41.20.60.80.70.81.00.60.71.10.50.60.71.30.71.0 0.9 1.10.30.7 Jul-101.70.90.7 0.60.8 0.40.50.80.31.10.50.7 0.81.10.60.81.10.50.7 1.30.71.11.20.90.81.10.30.8 Aug-101.51.00.70.60.40.80.70.30.60.90.31.10.50.6 0.71.20.50.91.10.40.60.91.30.71.21.60.8 1.20.30.7 Sep-101.41.10.80.50.40.80.60.30.70.90.21.10.6 0.71.10.40.71.30.30.61.01.20.71.11.50.8 1.00.30.8 Oct-101.41.00.70.60.40.80.60.30.60.80.21.00.60.70.60.71.00.30.61.30.30.61.01.20.61.11.20.7 0.90.30.7 Nov-101.41.10.70.60.40.80.70.30.60.70.21.10.7 0.60.70.80.40.61.30.30.61.2 0.61.20.90.7 0.90.30.9 Dec-101.41.00.80.70.40.8 0.30.50.70.41.20.7 0.90.60.71.10.40.60.91.20.71.20.8 0.70.80.30.9 Jan-111.51.00.80.70.50.70.80.30.50.80.41.20.80.7 0.90.60.81.10.40.61.11.30.91.20.8 0.71.00.31.0 Feb-111.80.90.70.80.60.70.80.30.40.8 1.10.60.80.70.81.00.60.71.30.40.60.91.41.0 0.9 0.71.00.31.0 Mar-112.01.00.7 0.6 0.80.30.40.80.71.10.60.7 1.00.60.71.30.30.61.01.40.9 1.10.70.51.00.21.0 Apr-112.11.00.6 0.50.70.80.30.40.8 1.20.50.7 0.81.00.6 1.40.40.60.71.30.70.81.40.70.60.90.31.1 May-112.11.10.80.5 0.7 0.30.40.80.51.30.50.7 1.10.60.91.20.40.60.51.40.60.71.30.70.60.90.41.1 Jun-112.01.20.80.50.40.80.70.4 0.90.61.30.60.70.60.71.10.60.91.00.40.70.41.40.6 1.20.80.71.00.31.0 Jul-111.91.20.80.60.40.90.70.40.50.90.61.40.7 0.60.81.20.50.9 0.40.70.41.40.70.51.20.7 1.00.31.0 Aug-111.81.20.80.70.50.90.70.5 1.00.61.30.60.80.7 1.00.40.91.00.40.70.51.30.70.51.30.80.71.10.41.1 Sep-111.81.21.00.70.60.90.80.40.61.10.71.30.70.90.80.71.11.20.91.00.40.70.61.50.90.71.20.70.61.10.51.2 Oct-112.21.31.00.70.40.8 0.40.60.90.61.40.61.00.8 1.21.60.91.10.50.70.61.60.8 1.30.7 0.90.51.2 Nov-112.61.31.00.80.50.80.90.40.50.80.61.40.91.10.81.01.32.20.81.10.50.70.81.50.80.71.30.70.60.90.61.2 Dec-112.71.30.91.00.50.9 0.50.60.70.51.50.91.10.91.3 0.91.10.50.81.01.40.90.71.10.90.70.90.61.2 Jan-122.71.21.01.10.61.00.90.50.60.70.51.51.1 0.91.11.41.10.81.20.60.71.11.31.00.91.1 0.71.00.61.2 Feb-122.81.31.11.00.50.91.00.50.70.80.41.50.91.20.91.01.40.70.81.30.60.71.21.41.10.91.01.10.71.10.61.2 Mar-123.01.41.0 0.50.81.00.40.71.00.51.50.81.20.9 1.40.80.91.40.50.71.01.31.11.01.11.00.60.90.61.3 Apr-122.91.40.91.00.50.71.10.50.61.10.51.60.61.20.91.01.30.91.01.20.50.61.11.31.11.01.20.80.71.00.61.3 May-123.11.70.71.10.40.70.90.50.71.30.61.80.51.30.91.11.41.1 1.40.50.60.91.41.0 0.8 0.71.30.61.4 Jun-123.31.60.71.00.50.81.00.60.71.10.51.90.51.41.01.11.41.0 1.40.40.61.11.50.91.0 0.80.71.40.61.3 Jul-123.61.70.71.00.50.80.90.60.71.10.52.00.61.51.1 1.51.01.11.60.40.61.11.51.00.81.00.80.71.40.51.4 Aug-123.51.80.81.00.60.81.00.6 0.80.51.90.81.61.21.01.60.71.11.40.40.71.31.60.90.81.30.7 1.20.41.5 Sep-123.31.90.71.10.8 0.90.6 0.90.61.70.71.51.40.91.40.51.21.30.40.81.11.61.00.81.20.70.81.10.41.5 Oct-123.62.30.91.21.80.91.00.60.91.10.61.80.91.71.60.81.50.51.21.40.51.01.41.80.91.11.40.9 1.60.51.5

14. Longer term changes We’ve looked at changes in both the numbers employed and in the pay levels Reflecting employer responses to their labour market 5 years up to classification change in 2011 Occupations coloured by skill level of recruits

16. Next steps Not simply a story of employment growth only for highly skilled But occupation match to skill level confused by: – Students working in elementary and sales – Part-time jobs at similar levels – Part-timers often working below their own skill level East and North doing better than West