1. 6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested Planet Topic 4: Superpower Geographies

2. What is this topic about? The superpowers, and emerging powers, are the most powerful and wealthy nations They have both economic and political power, often globally Power and wealth shift over time and this topic explores these changes Changing patterns of power have global implications, which need to be explored and understood. The New York Stock Exchange, a global power centre

3. 1. Who are the superpowers? 2. The role of Superpowers 3. Superpower futures CONTENTS Click on the information icon to jump to that section. Click on the home button to return to this contents page

4. 1. Who are the superpowers? Superpowers are countries, or grouping of countries, with global influence and power They have economic, cultural, military and geo-political influence Economic wealth (see graph) is only one aspect of superpower status One way to group the world's most powerful is:

5. The geography of power In terms of superpower status, size is not everything Some ‘demographic superpowers’ have relatively little economic power Military spending (see table) is one form of power, as it allows superpowers such as the USA to have global military reach The USA is a highly influential power in economic, military, geopolitical and cultural terms Only the EU comes close to the influence of the USA, but the EU is a federation of 27 nation states who do not always agree 2008/09 data Total Population (millions) Total military spending ($ billions) China1,33484 India1,17430 EU500280 USA308607 Indonesia2314 Brazil19215 Pakistan1684 Bangladesh1621 Nigeria1541 Russia14159 Japan12746 Mexico1074 Gulf States40 Use a data website such as www.wri.org to experiment with ranking power and status using different data types www.wri.org

6. Changing patterns of power Superpowers shift over time; the Uni-polar world of the British Empire gave way to the Bi-polar cold war world In 1990, as the USSR collapsed, a new USA dominated Uni-polar world was ushered in; the EU has grown to be increasingly powerful also Many people think the future will be a more complex, fragmented and regional multi-polar world It is important to recognise that power can decline as well as grow

7. The BRICs and emerging powers The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are the emerging super powers Mexico and the Gulf States could lay claim to be in this group also This group of countries is very different, with perhaps only China capable of challenging the USA in the near future. China Communist one-party state which has become the ‘workshop of the world’; rapid economic growth based on manufacturing and trade; significant military and demographic power Russia Russia is what is left of the USSR; it has a huge nuclear weapons arsenal, and vast oil and gas reserves making it globally important. It has an ageing, unhealthy population and weak economy. India A huge, and very youthful, population give India enormous potential for growth. It has some world class industry such as IT, but very poor infrastructure and 100s millions of very poor people Brazil Increasingly influential in Latin America, with a strong, diversified economy and growing middle class. It tends to punch below its weight internationally. It is sometimes referred to as an ‘agricultural superpower’. Mexico An influential country with strong ties to the USA; Mexico’s economy is often shaky and it has problems with crime and corruption. Gulf States Increasingly important in terms of remaining global oil and gas reserves; has attempted to diversify and become a hub between Europe and Asia, with some success.

8. Superpower theory There are several theories which help explain the rise and pattern of superpowers WW Rostow’s ‘Take Off’ model (modernisation theory) is often used to illustrate how countries move from relative underdevelopment, to a state of high mass consumption Not all countries have managed to industrialise and develop AG Frank’s Dependency Theory argues that this is because the developed countries (superpowers and emerging powers) maintain the developing world in a ‘state of underdevelopment’, draining it of: Human capital (‘brain drain’) Resources (minerals, ores, food) This helps maintain the developed world’s lifestyle, cheaply

9. The BRICs, and NICs, have developed in recent decades This suggests some countries have broken free from dependency and developed in the way Rostow’s model suggests Immanuel Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory seeks to model this ‘three sided world’: Wallerstein’s ideas are partly related to the economic theory of Supercycles (Kondratiev waves – see table) These suggest economic growth passes through phases based on key new technologies These new technologies bring growth to particular geographical regions Date and CycleTechnologyLocation 1770-1850 Industrial Revolution Cotton, steam enginesUK 1850-1920 IndustrializationRail, steam ships, iron and steel, Increased involvement of Europe and USA 1920-1945 MotorizationPetrochemicals, cars, electricity Increasing dominance of the USA 1945– 1990 Cold war eraWhite goods, consumer goods Rise of Japan and Asian Tigers 1990 onwardsInternet, wireless, biotechnology Shifts in production toward India and China 2020 onwards?????Asia?

10. 2. The role of Superpowers In the past, superpowers such as the British Empire and other Imperial powers maintained direct control over territories This era of colonialism ended in the period 1945-1980 when colonies gained independence A characteristic of a superpower is the ability to take control, through war, of troublesome regions believed to threaten superpower security Whilst rare, superpowers still take direct military control over territory: Mechanisms of Colonial Control Direct military conquest / occupation of territory Ethnic cleansing of difficult groups Cultural imperialism through art, religion and language Government by dictat, through colonial administrators Economic imperialism e.g. exporting to the home country Imposition of an alien legal system and ownership rights Invasion of Afghanistan1980, USSR Invasion of Panama1989, USA First Gulf War (Kuwait, Iraq)1990, USA, UK, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others Bombing of Bosnia1995, NATO War in Afghanistan2001, NATO led coalition

11. Neo-colonialism? Left-wing geographers argue that superpowers use subtle, indirect ways to maintain power today These ways are often termed neo- colonialism Aid is often given to allies and ‘friends’ rather than the most needy countries (see table), and much aid is ‘tied’ in various ways. Debt repayments channel money from the developing to the developed world Even debt relief schemes, such as the HIPC scheme (see map) have been criticised For HIPC countries to qualify for debt relief, they must follow the economic policies of bankers in the developed world Top 10 Recipients of USA foreign aid 2006 ($ millions) Israel2,520 Egypt1,795 Columbia558 Jordan461 Pakistan698 Peru133 Indonesia158 Kenya213 Bolivia122 Ukraine115 Note the total lack of overlap between the most indebted nations and the top 10 receivers of US aid.

12. International Trade The world trade system is essential a western ‘free trade’ one The USA and EU have been very influential at the World Trade Organisation in the past The World’s three major stock markets (London, New York and Tokyo) are all in the ‘west’ In a globalised world, TNCs play a crucial role in world trade, and most TNCs originate in the EU and USA Emerging superpowers, especially China, have taken advantage of global trade to develop and grow

13. International decision making Global decision making revolves around inter-governmental organisation (IGOs) Some IGOs involve all nations, such as the U.N. – others are more exclusive such as the G8, or regional such as NATO. Membership and voting rights may give key players disproportionate power. Some influential organisations such as the World Economic Forum (Davos Group) are not-for- profit organisations outside government control. IGOs do change over time; the G20 has become more influential in recent years, reflecting the increasing power of the BRICs Membership of Inter- governmental organisations UN Security CouncilNATOG8G20IMF (over 5% of votes)WTO member USA EU China Russia India Brazil Japan

14. Cultural influence Superpowers exert a cultural influence – the widespread use of English, tea drinking and cricket are a cultural legacy of the British Empire Today, the most influential culture is that of the USA ‘Americanisation’ suggests that this culture is spreading. This spread is made easier by: 1.Global brands and logos 2.The Global media e.g. Disney and CNN 3.Globalised transport and communications connections 4.American based TNCs 5.Widespread use of English Fast food, Coca- cola, rock music on the juke box in this American dream diner Is ‘Mcdonaldisation’ or ‘Cocacolonisation’ a positive or negative development? The issue tends to be divisive; some anti- globalisation campaigners accuse the USA of cultural imperialism, and blame US consumer culture for the erosion of local cultural traditions. On the other hand, many Chinese see Americanisation as positive, as it shows progress and development.

15. 3. Superpower futures As the primary emerging superpower, China has much to gain from its growing global status Poverty reduction in China (see graph) has been staggering China has become motorised, with over 170 million vehicles at the end of 2008; some estimates suggest there were only 3000 cars in Beijing in 1978 Inequality in China is a growing issue, although in general the population is much better off In Brazil and India there is a growing middle class of consumers In India by 2009 there were 500 million mobile phones in use and over 700 million in China

16. Superpower resources Growth, wealth and the status that accompanies it brings new problems to the emerging powers. Chief among these is pollution; as resources consumption and eco-footprints grow, so does pollution. What if eco-footprints in the BRICs (see graph) begin to approach those of the developed world? Almost 70% of China’s energy comes from coal Acid rain is a serious problem, as is water pollution and urban air pollution; in 2004 25,000km of Chinese rivers failed water quality standards

17. Declining superpowers? The emergence of the BRICs does challenge the hegemony of the USA The USA is not about to enter precipitous decline, but its influence may lessen There is evidence that the BRICs are catching up, as the number of largest TNCs based in the USA falls, but rises in the BRICs (see graph) There is also some unease among the BRICs that IGOs such as the G8 and UN Security Council are dominated by the USA and EU

18. Global Shifts in the Car industry In 2002, car sales in China were just over 3 million By 2009 sales had exploded to 11 million, beating the 10 million sold in the USA The potential for growth in car sales in China is vast Two of the ‘Detroit Three’ (Chrysler and GM) went bankrupt in 2009, shedding jobs and factories USA car companies have only survived because of Government bail-outs and selling or scrapping their loss making brands. Several brands have been sold to Indian and Chinese companies Year Population of Detroit (millions) 19501.8 19601.7 19701.5 19801.2 19901 20000.95 20080.9

19. Development or dependency? Does the rise of the BRICs represent an opportunity for the least developed countries to develop new relationships with wealthy countries? China’s interest in the developing world, especially Africa, has grown in the last 10 years China has invested in infrastructure such as road and rail, which Africa desperately needs. In some ways any investment is good investment Critics argue that Africa is still exporting its raw materials cheaply, and that the investment brings few jobs – Chinese workers are often used instead of local labour. China’s trade with Africa increased 10- fold between 1999 and 2009, to $110 billion Most trade is with oil exporters – Sudan, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Angola China approved $10 billion in loans to African nations in 2009 China has invested in Zambian copper mines, iron ore mines in Gabon China has gifted $150 to build a new African Union headquarters in Addis Adaba

20. Superpower Conflict Would a multi-polar global future increase tension and conflict? Sources of tension might be considered in terms of three global agendas: Strategic Agenda The USA dominates global foreign policy, but its ‘War or Terror’ brings it into conflict with the Islamic world and potentially the oil rich Gulf States. China and Russia tend to support Iran and opposed the two Gulf Wars, whereas the USA strongly opposes Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan are still unresolved problems and the USA is ‘stretched’ in terms of international involvement. Economic Agenda Global economic growth and globalisation place increased pressure on natural resources (land for food, water, fossil fuels, ores and minerals); conflict over resources is possible in the future and locations such as Africa, the Gulf States and Russia are likely to become increasingly important as areas with large remaining reserves of resources. This could increase tensions as the Superpowers and emerging powers squabble over access to resources. Climate Agenda The difficult and protracted Climate negotiations in Copenhagen in Dec 2009 showed that the USA, EU and BRICs do not share the same views on environmental issues; relations between China and the USA were chilly to say the least; environmental (and human rights) issues have some potential to sour international relations.