1. Future Bay Area Earthquakes – Water & Sewer Issues JEANNE PERKINS ABAG Earthquake and Hazards Program Consultant

3. Initial Mitigation Priority = Key Facilities l BEST UNDERSTOOD l Water storage l Aqueducts l Water treatment l Wastewater treatment l Pumps and pumping plants l Tunnels

4. Less Focus on Pipeline Impacts IN Loma Prieta l 507 water pipeline leaks or breaks in Loma Prieta l UNKNOWN number of sewer line breaks l 487 natural gas pipeline leaks EBMUD installs pipe elbow to avoid landslide area

5. Pipelines and “Normal” Earthquake Hazard Analysis l Ground Shaking l Fault Rupture l Liquefaction l Landslides l Tsunamis

6. Shaking Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

7. Liquefaction - Damage Selected Damage to Foundations Roads & Sidewalks Sand boils Pipeline Breaks

9. What Happened in the “Very High” Liquefaction Areas in Similar Shaking Intensities - Loma Prieta Quake l Water - 4-5 times more breaks l Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks l Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more costly

10. Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

11. What Happens to Water Lines- M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault l 507 documented water pipeline leaks/ruptures in Loma Prieta BUT IN A HAYWARD QUAKE: l 5,500 leaks/ ruptures due to shaking l PLUS 100 or more due to landslides l PLUS 500 due to faulting l PLUS 1,000-2,000 ? due to liquefaction

12. What Happens to Water Lines- M 6.7 Southern Hayward Fault l 507 documented water pipeline leaks/ruptures in Loma Prieta SIMILAR TO 1868 HAYWARD QUAKE: l 4,100 leaks/ ruptures due to shaking l PLUS 50 or more due to landslides l PLUS 350 due to faulting l PLUS 600-2,000 ? due to liquefaction

13. Transportation Impacts

14. 2 PAST EARTHQUAKES l 142 road closures in Loma Prieta l 140 road closures in Northridge

15. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault -- l 1,650 total closures l Most toll bridges not usable for days->months l Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties l Entire East Bay isolated

16. Recovery Timeline

17. What Does This Mean? l There were only 142 road closures in Loma Prieta. l There were only 140 road closures in Northridge. l Our model for predicting the potential impacts of these closures should be Kobe or Katrina, not either of these California quakes.

18. The Fault Mess l Approximately 520 road closures due to faulting. l These same roads will have water pipeline breaks. l Isolation of the East Bay!

19. Current Toll Bridge SRP Status

20. HousingImpacts Housing Impacts

21. 2 PAST EARTHQUAKES l 16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake l 48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Northridge Earthquake

22. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault l 155,700 uninhabitable housing units l 300,000 - Katrina l 356,600 people displaced l 110,300 peak shelter population

23. Multifamily vs. Single-Family 84% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

24. The Nightmare Goes On and On...

26. Who Has the Nightmare?

27. Bay Area Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan

28. The federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) focuses on – l Mitigation before, rather than after, disasters l Ties future mitigation funding to cities, counties, and special districts having “Local Hazard Mitigation Plans” completed l State also covers all local match

29. MITIGATION Strategies in “Umbrella” Plan Related to Water

30. Two ways to deal with hazards l Increase emergency response capability – police/fire/OES role l Increase actions taken to reduce or eliminate the impacts of future incidents – planning (CEQA and General Plans), public works, building, risk management role – These MITIGATION actions are the focus of these strategies

31. MITIGATION Decisions – Costs of ACTION vs. INACTION COSTS vs. LOSS REDUCTION l D eaths and injury l D amage – property dollar loss l D isruption – downtime due to inoperable functioning

32. GOAL – To develop a disaster-resistant region by l Reducing the potential loss of life, property damage, and environmental degradation from natural disasters, while l Speeding economic recovery from those disasters.

33. 1.Infrastructure – INFR-a-3-Retrofit or replace critical lifeline facilities … that are shown to be vulnerable to damage in natural disasters. INFR-a-6-Plan for speeding the repair and functional restoration of lifeline systems through stockpiling of shoring materials, temporary pumps, surface pipelines, portable hydrants, and other supplies…

34. 1.Infrastructure (cont.)– INFR-b-3-Include “areas subject to high ground shaking, earthquake-induced ground failure, and surface fault rupture” in the list of criteria used for determining a replacement schedule for pipelines … INFR-b-4-Replace or retrofit water- retention structures that are determined to be structurally deficient.

35. 1.Infrastructure (cont.)– INFR-d-12- Provide a mechanism to expedite the repair or replacement of levees that are vulnerable to collapse from earthquake-induced shaking or liquefaction, rodents, and other concerns, particularly those protecting critical infrastructure. INFR-g-3-Provide materials to the public related to coping with reductions in water supply or contamination of that supply.

36. Where is ABAG’s information on the internet? http://quake.abag.ca.gov/