1. Development of a Real-Time GIC Simulator D. H. BOTELER 1, R. PIRJOLA 2, J. PARMELEE 1, S. SOUKSALY 1 1 Geomagnetic Laboratory, Natural Resources Canada 2 Space Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute 5 th European Space Weather Week, Brussels, 17-21 November 2008

2. Summary This presentation describes the development of a Real-Time GIC Simulator to provide information about geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in a power system to help system controllers prevent power outages during geomagnetic disturbances. The Simulator uses real-time geomagnetic data as input and convolves this with an Earth impulse response to calculate the electric fields experienced by the power system. These are then used as input to a power system model to calculate the GIC throughout the system. Real-time maps are produced showing the GIC in the transmission lines and the GIC flowing to ground at substations. A prototype system has been implemented for the power grid in Ontario Canada, in collaboration with the grid operator, Hydro One. Public web pages have also been produced to demonstrate the Simulator process using a generic network. A cost/benefit analysis shows that the cost of the Simulator is small compared to the benefit of avoiding problems during geomagnetic disturbances.

3. CONTENTS 1. User Requirements 2. Electric Field Calculations 3. GIC Modelling 4. Operation 5. User Satisfaction 6. Cost Benefit Analysis

4. USER REQUIREMENTS: Effects of Geomagnetically Induced Currents

5. Quebec Power System SVC tripped Lines tripped Transformer damaged

6. USER REQUIREMENTS: Effects of Geomagnetically Induced Currents Response to Geomagnetically Induced Currents - Redesign (Not Practical) - Operating Procedures Need Knowledge about GIC levels - 1989 Effects in Ontario - August 2003 Blackout in Canada/US (not due to GIC)

7. GIC Simulator: Overview

8. GIC Simulator: Electric Field Calculation

9. GIC Simulator: GIC Modelling

10. GIC Simulator: Operation

11. GIC Simulator: Operation

12. GIC Simulator: User Satisfaction Displays designed in consultation with Hydro One engineers Verification Important – limited by lack of activity Include spatial variations of magnetic disturbances Use local earth conductivity models

13. Geomagnetic Impact Scenarios Benefits of GIC Simulator Cost of GIC Simulator Service Cost / Benefit Comparison Cost Benefit Analysis

14. Unexpected Reactive Power Demand Equipment Damage Replacement Power Power Blackout Cost Benefit Analysis: Geomagnetic Impact Scenarios - direct cost to power company - wider societal cost

15. System Management Avoidance of Equipment Damage Avoidance of Replacement Power Costs Avoidance of Power Blackout Cost Benefit Analysis: Benefits of GIC Simulator

16. Initial Development Supply of Magnetic Data Service Operation Cost Benefit Analysis: Costs of GIC Simulator Service

17. Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/Benefit Comparison Total Cost over Cost over Cost 10 years 30 years Initial Development $300K$30K$10K Supply of Mag Data* $20K$20K$20K Service operation* $30K$30K$30K Further Development $200K$20K $7K Costs

18. Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/Benefit Comparison Cost of Once every Once every Incident 10 years30 years Reactive Power $1 M $100K $33K Equipment Damage $5 M $500K$165K Replacement Power $25M $2.5M$0.8M (6 weeks – 12 months) - $200M - $20M- $7M Power Blackout $600M $60M$20M Benefits

19. Conclusions A system has been developed to provide real-time simulation of geomagnetically induced currents in a power system This can be used by power system operators to monitor GIC levels that may impact system operation A Cost/Benefit Analysis shows that the costs of operating the system are small compared to the benefits of avoiding problems on the power system