1. A Tipping Point In Advanced Vehicles? The Chinese Didn’t Seem To Get The Memo, and Comments On Advanced Battery Hot-Button Issues June 27, 2009 Silver City, NM, USA Prepared By: Josh Landess Owner-Founder: First Energy Research LLC Partner: WilderHill New Energy Finance Josh@FirstEnergyResearch.com 520-281-5760 Event Details: Viva Verde Expo 2009 Saturday, Jun 27, 2009 2:00-3:00 PM Meeting Room A-B Global Resource Center Auditorium, WNMU Campus

2. Framing of Discussion Safety Overall Transportation System, not just vehicles Recent Policies & Manufacturer Announced Intentions Have Become A Zoo 1 Or 2 More Years? Increasingly Fast Pace Of Change (Compare Biofuels, Solar Energy? Disclaimers ------------------- The Problems (Quick Global & US Energy Perspective) Partial Solution: Plug-In Vehicles

3. (About 20-25 kWh Per Day, About 7.2 kWh From Solar) (About 33 kWh is expended in one IC engine round-trip to Walmart) Our Personal Transportation Equations

4. World Primary Energy Supply* 19732006 Total6,115 MTOE11,741 MTOE Oil46.1%34.4% Coal/Peat24.5%26.0% Gas16.0%20.5% Combustible Renewables & Waste 10.6%10.1% Nuclear0.9%6.2% Hydro1.8%2.2% Other0.1%0.6% Source: IEA http://iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1199 Data: Notes: * Data “Excludes Electricity Trade” 1 MTOE = 4.1868 x 10 Petajoules 11,741 MTOE = 489.364 Exajoules (10 to the 18 power joules) US 2005 Supply & Consumption per IEA = 2340 Mtoe = about 20.5% of world.

5. Global Oil Business http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Iran/Oil.html http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDI ndex3.cfm?tid=50&pid=53&aid=1 http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDI ndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=54&aid=2 Country Russia Millions Of Barrels Per day 9.80 Saudi Arabia9.52 United States8.84 Iran4.09 China3.90 Canada3.36 Mexico3.05 United Arab Emirates2.78 Brazil2.60 Norway2.54 Country United States Millions Of Barrels Per Day 20.68 China7.56 Japan5.00 Russia2.82 India2.80 Germany2.45 Brazil2.40 Canada2.36 Korea, South2.21 Saudi Arabia2.21 Production Top 10 March 2009 Consumption Top 10 2007

6. US & Global Oil Consumption USGlobalPercent 2004: 20.73 (mbpd) 82.4125.16% 2005: 20.80 (mbpd) 84.0024.76% 2006:20.69 (mbpd) 84.9824.34% 2007: 20.68 (mbpd) 86.8224.08% 2008: 19.42 (mbpd) 85.4322.73% source: EIA http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t21.xls

7. US Energy Perspective, EIA.doe.gov USA 2007 Petroleum: 39.8% of US Energy Use In the US (but not in other countries) 70% of Petroleum is used for Transportation Transportation: About 29% of US Energy use 96% from Petroleum 2% from Natural Gas 2% from Renewables (source: EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/pecss_diagram.html

8. Source: PEWClimate.ORG http://www.pewclimate.org/technology/overview/transpor tation (+Motivations: Global Security, Economy, Environment)

9. Percentages of global equity investment, February 13, 2009 By Sector Wind30.63% Solar30.57% Energy Efficiency12.89% Biofuels* & Biomass12.21% Renewables – Other6.49% Power Storage4.79% Energy Conversion2.42% By Region Of Listing EMEA49.72% AMER29.88% [AMER-USA 28.02%] ASOC20.39% Source: First Energy Research LLC, New Energy Finance February 13, 2009 Market Capitalizations of more than 400 non-OTC equities in New Energy, weighted for exposure to New Energy

10. Plug-In Highway-Capable Solutions

11. Searching For What Is Already Found Sampling Of Some Vehicle High-Efficiency Numbers (Pump Or Grid To Wheel) VehicleTypeMiles Per Megajoule Miles Per kWh MPG (Gasoline), or Equivalent Data Source Notes Genuinely widely available to US consumers 2008 Vectrix (2- Wheeler, 62 mph) Plug-In (NiMH)2.8410.22*340 * Calculated From Manufacturer Battery and Range Data. Probably Optimistic Yes Electric Light Intra- city Rail [under “typical” passenger load] [Grid][1.67][6.01][200 passenger- mpg] *strickland.ca under “typical” passenger load. These numbers should be treated as very general estimates. [Yes] 2009 BMW Mini-EPlug-In (Lithium Ion)1.505.40*179.63 * Manufacturer Claim, Probably Optimistic No 1997 EV1Plug-In (Panasonic Advanced Lead-Acid Version) 0.993.58*119.09 * Compiled From A Government Testing Report No 2009 TeslaPlug-In (Lithium Ion)0.993.57*118.76 * Manufacturer Statement Of Government Estimate Yes (but expensive). 2002 Toyota RAV4 EV Plug-In (NiMH)0.943.37112* * fueleconomy.gov No 2005 Prius PHEV Effort Plug-In Hybrid (Gasoline/Lithium Ion) 0.712.5685. 21* ** 3 rd party Conservative Estimate Very Limited 2009 Honda Clarity FCX Hydrogen Fuel Cell0.622.2274* * Manufacturer Claim No 2002 Toyota RAV4 Gasoline 4 Cyl 2WD 5-Speed Internal Combustion0.200.7224* * fueleconomy.gov Yes Table: First Energy Research LLC. Approximations: 1 gallon gasoline = 113,500 BTU = 33.26 kWh = 119.75 MJ

12. Renewable Energy Harvesting + Millions Of Plug-In Vehicles = Symbiosis = Demand Destruction For Oil

13. Plug-In Vehicles

14. This is what happened to GM’s 100+ MPGE EV1. It was never offered readily and widely for sale to consumers (or anyone else) … anywhere… ever.

15. Newer Possibilities, Out Of The Ashes

16. All Of These Leading EVs “Decided” To Skip NiMH Batteries Photo Source: Vehicle Manufacturers, Wikipedia

17. The Best (Or Even Very Good) Technology Does Not Always Win

18. EV Drivetrain & Vehicle Companies (and 1 fuel cell company) over 2 Years

19. Some Global Automakers, over 5 years (note China and Hong Kong stocks doing best, then Japan, then US and Europe)

20. Some More Global Automakers, over 5 years (led by VW, Dongfeng, Avichina and Daihatsu)

21. Advanced Battery Investments Source: First Energy Research LLC, Thomson ONE Equity

22. Selected 60+ MPH EV Company Comments June, 2009, applying levels of our layman’s nonsense-detectors (note: New Plug In America Vehicle Tracker as a major source of information) China & Hong Kong Headquarters: BYD Auto (China 2008 Intro, US 2011?) Chery Automobile (73.2 mph) Prototype 2009, Iron Phosphate Hafei Saibao (Miles, CODA) Fall 2010 Japan Headquarters: Mitsubishi i-MEV (note Meiden) Subaru (note Fuji, Batteries) Nissan Honda? (Nothing?) Toyota (PHEV, but lame schedule, & where are the EVs?) Shin-Kobe Electric Machinery India & Other Headquarters: Tata (+ Miljo) Reva Proton (Malaysia: Lotus, Detroit Electric)

23. North America Headquarters: AC Propulsion Chrysler (various: big wildcard, question- mark, journalists covering them over the years?) Fisker Ford Transit Connect (w/Smith in US) Ford-Magna (promising) GM Volt Penske (Saturn) Tango Tesla Zenn (higher skepticism) Europe Headquarters: BMW Mini-E Daimler (Smart Car) Elbil Norge Kewet Buddy (claiming NiMH and Lithium Options for end of 2009?) Heuliez (Michelin) Renault (ACP Connection) Smith (Ford Europe Chassis) Think (Enova) (financing a significant recent event) VW PHEV (lame schedule, but good IC cars) More EV Companies

24. Selected Lithium (Mostly) Battery Company Comments CountryBattery CompanyVehicle Company ChinaBYD - BYD GP (Gold Peak), Hunan CorunVectrix, Others? Lishen (LiPO4?!) - CODA/Miles/Hafei Saibao China BAK TaiwanE-Moli - ? JapanPanasonic Toyota NECNIssan Hitachi GM GS Yuasa Mitsubishi Hitachi Maxell Subaru (Fuji Heavy) SanyoMaybe Honda ? ToshibaVW (cancelled?) KoreaLG Chem/Compact Power Subsidiary GM North America & Europe JCS (JCI/SAFT Joint Venture) - Chyrsler A123 - Continental AG Collaboration – Think, others, GM Valence - Tanfield, Others Enerdel – Think Global AS Lithium Technology Corporation? Altair -Phoenix (Bankrupt) Electrovaya - Miljobil Grenland

25. Selected Motors-Powertrain and Charger Company Comments - Selected Outside-the-box company comments Car-sharing, U-Haul Ports: Infratel -Learning Lessons From Bankruptcies, Selected Company Comments - BAAT, ZAP, ELSI, - GGGO, HIPC, other relief cases. - Vectrix? Tanfield, Think? GM?

26. Chicken & Egg EV Issues About 2 More Years ? There has never been widely for sale a highway-capable affordable vehicle that did not use fossil fuels, with the partial exception of biofuel vehicles. (Therefore) Nobody knows for absolute certain if there is demand for plug-ins. The Big Lie(s) & Strangeness of the Global Auto Industry. Arguing “Capitalism” and Anthropology. EVs were part of early 20th century. FCEVs were used as a distraction. Poor Coverage By Press & Totally unworthy policy-making up to now. Plug-Ins are simply good cars, even with efficiency arguments aside. In a way, going forward, it is possible this blockade will continue. Overseas Hopes: Did the Chinese Get The Memo?

27. Concluding Thoughts, … Policy, Business & Summary Comments Some Engineers didn’t like ZEV. Need Gas Tax no matter how you slice it? BMW-ZEV: all for the credits?. Chinese not getting the memo, most of the rest seem to be playing a very dangerous game. Anthropology Overcoming “the” answers Overcoming Wall Street or Anti-Innovative Dogmatism against sustainability concepts.