1. PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

2. What is Public Opinion?
Public opinion – the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population
Extremely dynamic; shaped by and shapes groups
The private becomes public
Distribution of Opinion
Consensus : general agreement among the people
Divisive Opinion: Public opinion that is polarized between two positions

3. Shaping Opinion
Political Socialization - The process in which individuals acquire political beliefs and values
Major Agents of Socialization
Family
School
Peers
Media (opinion leaders)

4. The Family and Education
Family: Most important agent of socialization
Families have similar political views
Usually hold same party affiliation as parents
Influence of adult children in 2008 election
School: pass on American political values
Significant formal influence
Intentional via curriculum
Unintentional via teacher behavior and attitude

5. Peer groups and Media Peer Groups: increases in influence with age
May stem from group participation in the political
Often indirect; shapes how to behave in relationships, transmission of social behavior
Media: Communicates the issues
Often most common connection to opinion leaders
Agenda Setting

6. Other Factors Political Events
Lifestyle effect: Certain attitudes at certain ages
Being a teenager vs. being a parent
Generational effect: event that has lasting impact
Watergate and 9/11
Religion – predicts party affiliation and voting behavior
Social Status Theory
Catholics & Jews – Associated with the Democratic Party because used to be poor and therefore democratic.
Religious Tradition Theory: The moral teachings guides party affiliation.
Jews – Social justice
Protestants – Personal salvation

7. Other Factors Identity Politics Election specific-factors
Socio-Economic Status
Race and Ethnicity
Gender
Region
Election specific-factors
Party Identification
Perception of the Candidates
Issue Preferences

8. Voting Behavior

9. Voting Behavior

10. Opinion Polling

11. How We Form Political Opinions
Personal
Beliefs
Political
Knowledge
Cues
From
Leaders
Political Opinions

12. Opinion Polls
Polls are interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue or set of issues.

13. Early Efforts to Influence and Measure Public Opinion
Public opinion polling as we know it today developed in the 1930s.
As early as 1824, newspapers have tried to predict election winners using polls.
Literary Digest used straw polls that are now seen as highly problematic.
The American Voter was published in 1960 and continues to influence the way we think of mass attitudes and behavior.
This book studied the 1952 and 1956 presidential elections and discussed how class coalitions led to party affiliation.

14. How We Measure Public Opinion
In order for a poll to be reliable, it must have:
Proper question wording
An accurate sample
contacting respondents – Since 95% of Americans have phones, random phone calling would be a valid method.

15. Sampling Techniques
Representative Sampling - To accurately predict the whole based on only a sample, the sample must be representative.
Sample of interviewees should reflect population as a whole
Randomness - A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error.
every person in the defined population has to have an equal chance of being selected
The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error
quota sampling: researchers decide how many persons of certain types they need in the survey: ex. minorities, women, or farmers
Within the categories, the sample may be nonrandom and therefore biased.
The Importance of Accuracy - interview about 1500 individuals to measure sentiment of 200 million American adults
Their results have a high probability of being correct—within a margin of three percentage points—and they have had some notable successes in accurately predicting election results.

16. Problems with Polls
Sampling Errors: the difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed.
The sample is too small
Do not know how to correct for common biases in samples.
Poll Questions: The design of a question can affect the result.
Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray
Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer
Push Polls: attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a pollster and using long questions containing information about the opposition
Both candidates and advocacy groups use push polls.

17. How We Measure Public Opinion
In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted.
Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the 'n') and the error rate (+ or - 5%).
Any poll that tells you to call for yes and for no is unscientific and unreliable. This is not a random sample at all!

18. Types of Polls
Tracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. These may be a decent measure of trends.
Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election day.
Deliberative polls--a new kind of poll first tried in A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy.
A deliberative poll attempts to measure what the public would think if they had better opportunities to thoughtfully consider the issues first.