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Resort Conference March 21 st, 2006 Jan D. Freitag, VP SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
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Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections
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Total United States Estimated Revenue and Profitability Years 1999 – 2005P Life is good !
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U.S. Lodging Industry - Key Statistics Latest 12 Months - January 2006 % Change Hotels 47,735 0.6% Rooms4.4mm 0.3% Occupancy63.3% 2.9% A.D.R. $91.28 5.5% RevPar$57.76 8.6% Room Revenue$94B 9.0%
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Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 Cyclicality Clearly Visible – Recent S/D Imbalance Spells Opportunity 0.3% 3.3%
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Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 Divergence Divergence? If History Repeats Itself, Strong ADR Gains are Here to Stay
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Total United States Occupancy Percent, Average Daily Rate, RevPAR Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 $86.36 $91.28 64.9% 63.3% Robust OCC and ADR Gains post 9/11
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STR Chain Scales Selected chains from each segment Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont, W Hotels Upper Upscale – Doubletree, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton Upscale – Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard, Crowne Plaza, Radisson Mid with F&B – Holiday Inn, Ramada, Best Western, Quality Inn Mid no F&B – Comfort Inn, HI Express, Country Inns & Suites Economy – Motel 6, Days Inn, ESA, Travelodge, Ramada Limited
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Chain Scales Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Months Ended January 2006 Business Traveler Drives Demand for Big Boxes
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Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Months Ended January 2006 Above Inflation Rate Growth Across all Chain Scales
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Chain Scales RevPAR/Room Revenue Percent Change Twelve Months Ended January 2006 Life is Good!
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Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections
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Resort Locations Key Statistics 12 Month Moving Average January 2006 % Change Hotels3,890-2.5% Room Nights214.6 m-1.8% Demand 143.3 m-0.8% Occupancy66.7% 1.1% ADR$127.06 6.0% RevPAR $85.11 7.1% Room Rev$18.3 b 5.2%
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Resort Locations Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 Supply Increase Used to be Somewhat Constant – Until 9/11 -0.8% -1.8%
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Resort Locations Room Demand Percent Change Peaks Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 Demand Peaks Every 48 months – Or Does it? 48 months 42 months
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Resort Locations Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 Despite Decreasing OCC Growth, ADR Growth Should be Here to Stay
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Resort Locations Occupancy Percent, Average Daily Rate Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 July 1997: 69.1% OCC & ADR Rebound after 9/11 – but OCC still has a way to go July 2001: $115 Jan 2006: $127 Jan 2006: 66.7%
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Resorts Day of Week Analysis – Occupancy 2003 - 2005 Nice Increases Midweek - but Have Weekends Peaked?
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Resorts Day of Week Analysis – ADR 2003 - 2005 ~$8 Rate Growth Across the Board – a Good Sign for 2006
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Resorts Group vs. Transient ADR 2003 - 2005 Group Rate Growth Lags Transient Rate Growth
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Resorts Day of Week ADR - Group 2003 - 2005 2005 vs 2004: Moderate Daily Rate Growth (~3%) For Groups
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Resorts Day of Week ADR – Transient 2003 - 2005 2005 vs 2004: Healthy Rate Increases Across All Days (~10%)
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Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections
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Destination Resort Key Statistics 12 Month Moving Average January 2006 % Change Hotels3171.0 % Room Nights57.7m- 0.5 % Demand 38.8 m1.2 % Occupancy67.3%1.7 % ADR$182.986.3 % RevPAR $123.148.1 % Room Rev $7.1 b7.6 % 0.7% of US Hotel Supply generates 7.6 % of US Rooms Revenue
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Destination Resorts Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 Segment Always Attracts New Supply – Except in the Most Recent Past 1.2% -0.5%
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Destination Resorts Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 Above 6% Rate Growth Lasts Not Forever… But for Now
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Destination Resorts Occupancy Percent, Average Daily Rate Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to January 2006 Still Room For Improvement Post 9/11 in Both Measures May 1997: 70.6% July 2001: $171 Jan 2006: $182 Jan 2006: 67.3%
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Destination Resorts Monthly Occupancy 2000 vs. 2005 In the Off Season, Year 2000 Still Is the Benchmark To Beat 76.8% 75.8%
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Destination Resorts Monthly ADR 2000 vs. 2005 December Rate Differential Still $6 -$6 +$14
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Destination Resorts Day of Week Analysis – Occupancy 2003 - 2005 Strong “Long Weekends” (Thu – Sat) But Have Fr/Sat Reached Their Peak?
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Destination Resorts Day of Week Analysis – ADR 2003 - 2005 Second Part of the Cycle: Rate Increase ‘04/’03: 2% - Rate Increase ‘05/’04: 6%
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Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections
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Definitions Condo Hotel Rooms: Rooms placed in Rental Pool Residences: Rooms not placed in Rental Pool
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Total U.S. Summary of Condotel Pipeline – March 2006 Source: STR Condotel Pipeline, part of the STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline 229 Projects with a total of 98,142 reported* rooms Rooms are broken out as follows ( % of total): Hotel Rooms: 34,166 35% Condo Hotel Rooms:48,678 50% Total Affecting Nightly Room Supply: 82,844 85% Non-rental Residences:13,938 14% Timeshare Rooms: 1,360 1% * Some projects have not yet reported room counts
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Total U.S. Top 10 Condotel MSAs March 2006
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Annual Occupancy 2003 - 2005 Total US vs. Condo Hotels vs. Destination Resorts %
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Annual ADR 2003 - 2005 Total US vs. Condo Hotels vs. Destination Resorts $
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Condotel: Data Reporting Topics Reporting Availability Static vs. Fluctuating Rooms Available Reporting Rooms Sold Issue: Owner Occupied, Non-Revenue Generating Rooms Reporting Rooms Revenue The Rule: No Restatements after 120 days Comp Set Issues Choosing a Condotel in your Comp Set will likely do more harm than good
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Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections
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Lodging Industry Issues Supply Growth Remains Benign – Construction Costs, Condo Conversions Higher Operating Costs – Insurance, Labor, Amenities, Energy Solid Demand Growth – Degrees of Good, Some Not So Good Changing Demand – Experience Travel, Baby Boomers Occupancy Growth Slows – Varies Widely by Market Aggressive Pricing – Could Double CPI, Control of Internet Pricing Transportation Problems – Troubled Airlines, Gasoline, Infrastructure Higher Industry Profits – More Difficult for each Property Global Issues – Terrorism, Bird Flu, Currency Fluctuations Outlook – Great ‘till ‘08?
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U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators – March 2006 2005A2006F2007F Real GDP+3.6%+3.4%+3.0% CPI (= Inflation)+3.4%+2.9%+2.4% Corporate Profits + 17.1%+9.5% +4.6% Disp Personal Income +1.5% +3.5% +3.2% Unemployment Rate 5.1% 4.8% 4.7%
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Total United States Supply/Demand Percent Change 2002 – 2006P
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Total United States Occupancy Percent Change 2002 – 2006P
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Total United States Occupancy Percent 2002 – 2006P
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Total United States ADR Percent Change 2002 – 2006P
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Total United States Real Room Rates – (Base Year = 2000) Year End 2000 - 2005
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Total United States Nominal Room Rates 2000 – 2006P If Yr. 2000 Rate Had Grown at 3% over 6 years:
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Total United States RevPAR Percent Change 2002 – 2006P
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Thank You for Your Attention! jan@smithtravelresearch.com www.smithtravelresearch.com
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