1. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Southern California: A Natural Laboratory for Earthquake Science SCEC annual meeting, 2000

2. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Motivations Economic Geologic Seismic Historic Knowledgeable and interested public & Media Data availability Problem definition Export of know-how The beach

3. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Geologic Complex Plate Boundary deformation zone on land Continental breakup Varied tectonic regimes, major geologic transitions Good geologic exposure, well mapped Numerous sedimentary basins All types of faulting, including mature fault zones (SAF) and immature ones

4. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER We have faults

5. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Seismic Region of active seismicity (300+ active faults mapped) Good instrumental coverage Good history (450,000 event catalog, 65 year coverage) Good paleoseismic record Numerous well mapped surface breaking events 30,000 well-constrained focal mechanisms High quality digital data Good access (data centers)

6. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER

7. We have earthquakes

8. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER We have data Seismic (include Strong Motions) Geodetic (GPS) Geologic (177 trenches so far) InSAR Strain, lidar, remote sensing, etc. Socio-economic

9. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Economic Motivation 20 million people 7th economy in the world Major harbors, airports, freeways, lifelines, etc Major heavy and light industry Variety of building types More than hazards….there is Risk

10. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Earthquake Risk in Southern California 20 Million people + 7th largest economy + Active plate boundary + Over 300 active faults = _____________________________ Almost half the national earthquake risk, with 25% in Los Angeles County alone...

11. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Larger Earthquakes 1932–1997

12. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Does this Natural laboratory have the right size? Outer scale comparable to large earthquake fault dimension Outreach works well with a self-contained community Knowledgeable and interested public & media –Cultural, socio-economic needs

13. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Simulations of San Andreas Ruptures (Olsen, 2000)

14. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Scientific Critical Mass 10 Institutions of higher learning Research, Students 150 scientists work at SCEC USGS, CDMG, NASA presence Excellent computing and communication infrastructure Collaborators worldwide

15. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER

16. Exporting know-how Model for Outreach Model of instrumentation Model for open data Model for sharing instruments

17. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Some map of economic distribution? Census? FEMA? HAZUS?

18. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER Economic Loss & Deaths San Francisco 1906 7.8 $400M 700- 800 Long Beach 1933 6.4 $40M 115 Kern County 1952 7.5 $50M 14 San Fernando 1971 6.7 $511M Loma Prieta 1989 6.9 $6B Northridge 1994 6.7 $ 10B Kobe 1995 6.9 $200B Izmit 1999 7.4 $ Chichi 1999 7.6 $ Los Angeles, 200? 7.? $1T Tokyo 200? 9.? $3.3T New York 21?? 5.5 $10T

19. S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA E ARTHQUAKE C ENTER HAZUS Simulations Oil and Gas Systems Overlaying Observed Ground Shaking from ’89 Loma Prieta Event Groundshaking (shaded by census tract) and damage to emergency response facilities from M 7.0 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in south San Francisco Bay area.