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Presenter's Name Presenter’s Title There is no guarantee that the strategies set forth in this presentation will achieve their intended objectives. LWI.

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Presentation on theme: "Presenter's Name Presenter’s Title There is no guarantee that the strategies set forth in this presentation will achieve their intended objectives. LWI."— Presentation transcript:

1 Presenter's Name Presenter’s Title There is no guarantee that the strategies set forth in this presentation will achieve their intended objectives. LWI Financial Inc. (“Loring Ward”) is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Securities transactions are offered through its affiliate, Loring Ward Securities Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. IRN B 15-032 (Exp 4/17)

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3 3 A Portfolio To Meet Your Life Goals

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8 8 Financial Life Map

9 9 Your Portfolio Using Scientific & Academic Research

10 10 “Straw” Portfolio

11 11 “Wood” Portfolio

12 12 Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market. “Brick” Portfolio

13 13 Adam Smith Frederich Hayek Paul Samuelson Merton Miller Bill Sharpe Harry Markowitz Gene Fama

14 14 How You Allocate Between Stocks & Short- Term Bonds How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks Your Comfort with Key Risk Factors Decisions 3

15 15 1 Source: One-Month U.S. Treasury Bills, Five-Year U.S. Treasury Notes, and Twenty-Year (Long-Term) U.S. Government Bonds provided by Ibbotson Associates. Six-Month U.S. Treasury Bills provided by CRSP (1964-1977) and Merrill Lynch (1978-present). One-Year U.S. Treasury Notes provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices (1964-May 1991) and Merrill Lynch (June 1991-present). Morningstar data ©2014 Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook (2015), Morningstar. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2014 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Assumes reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Standard deviation annualized from quarterly data. Standard deviation is a statistical measurement of how far the return of a security (or index) moves above or below its average value. The greater the standard deviation, the riskier an investment is considered to be. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise, issuer’s creditworthiness declines, and are subject to availability and changes in price. Growth of $1 Jan 1927 – Dec 2014 How You Allocate Between Stocks & Short-Term Bonds

16 16 How You Allocate Between Stocks & Short-Term Bonds 1 Source: One-Month U.S. Treasury Bills, Five-Year U.S. Treasury Notes, and Twenty-Year (Long-Term) U.S. Government Bonds provided by Ibbotson Associates. Six-Month U.S. Treasury Bills provided by CRSP (1964-1977) and Merrill Lynch (1978-present). One-Year U.S. Treasury Notes provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices (1964-May 1991) and Merrill Lynch (June 1991-present). Morningstar data ©2014 Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook (2015), Morningstar. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2014 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Assumes reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Standard deviation annualized from quarterly data. Standard deviation is a statistical measurement of how far the return of a security (or index) moves above or below its average value. The greater the standard deviation, the riskier an investment is considered to be. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise, issuer’s creditworthiness declines, and are subject to availability and changes in price.

17 17 2 How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks

18 18 World Market Capitalization Percent of world market capitalization as of December 31, 2014 Source: Dimensional Fund Advsors. In US dollars. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many small nations not displayed. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks including foreign currency changes, taxes and different accounting and financial reporting methods. Countries represented by their respective MSCI IMI(net div.). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot directly invest; they do not reflect the payment of advisory fees or other expenses associated with specific investments or the management of an actual portfolio. Capitalization over time ($ trillions) Developed Markets Emerging Markets Frontier Markets Bloomberg Index Affiliation How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks 2

19 19 How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks Source: Dimensional. In US dollars. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many small nations not displayed. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks including foreign currency changes, taxes and different accounting and financial reporting methods. Countries represented by their respective MSCI IMI(net div.). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot directly invest; they do not reflect the payment of advisory fees or other expenses associated with specific investments or the management of an actual portfolio. Ranking of Markets Around the World Based on Ten-Year Performance in US Dollars Annualized Returns Year Ending December 31, 2014 2 1. Philippines 2. Peru 3. Colombia 4. Indonesia 5. Egypt 6. China 7. Thailand 8. Denmark 9. India 10. Mexico 11. Malaysia 12. Singapore 13. Brazil 14. Hong Kong 15. South Africa 16. Korea 17. Switzerland 18. Australia 19. Turkey 20. Sweden 21. Canada 22. USA 23. Chile 24. Germany 25. Netherlands 26. Taiwan 27. Israel 28. Czech Republic 29. Norway 30. New Zealand 31. UK 32. Spain 33. Finland 34. Poland 35. France 36. Belgium 37. Japan 38. Russia 39. Italy 40. Hungary 41. Portugal 42. Austria 43. Ireland 44. Greece

20 20 How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks 2

21 21 3 The risks associated with investing in stocks and overweighting small company and value stocks potentially include increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Your Comfort with Key Risk Factors Small Company Stocks Growth Company Stocks Value Company Stocks Large Company Stocks Total Stock Market Increased Expected Returns Decreased Risk and Expected Returns

22 22 Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. US value and growth index data (ex utilities) provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. International Value and Growth data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. MSCI EAFE Index is net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2015, all rights reserved. Emerging markets index data simulated by Fama/French from countries in the IFC Investable Universe; simulations are free-float weighted both within each country and across all countries. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Small company risk: Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Emerging markets risk: Numerous emerging countries have experienced serious, and potentially continuing, economic and political problems. Stock markets in many emerging countries are relatively small, expensive, and risky. Foreigners are often limited in their ability to invest in, and withdraw assets from, these markets. Additional restrictions may be imposed under other conditions. Foreign securities and currencies risk: Foreign securities prices may decline or fluctuate because of: (a) economic or political actions of foreign governments, and/or (b) less regulated or liquid securities markets. Investors holding these securities are also exposed to foreign currency risk (the possibility that foreign currency will fluctuate in value against the US dollar). Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Your Comfort with Key Risk Factors 3

23 23 The Key Academic Research Defining Value and Growth: Implications for Returns and Turnover Jim Davis and Inmoo Lee, Dimensional Fund Advisors (August 2008) Defining Value and Growth: Implications for Returns and Turnover The Anatomy of Value and Growth Stocks Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College – Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (September 2007) The Anatomy of Value and Growth Stocks Migration Fama, Eugene and Kenneth R. French, Financial Analysts Journal (June 2007) Dissecting Anomalies Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College – Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (June 2007) Migration Dissecting Anomalies Average Returns, B/M, and Share Issues Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; (May 2007) International Evidence of the Size Effect Rizova, Savina, Dimensional Fund Advisors (August 2006) Average Returns, B/M, and Share Issuesnternational Evidence of the Size Effect Multi-Factor Investing Fama Jr., Eugene F., Dimensional Fund Advisors (July 2006) Multi-Factor Investing The Value Premium and the CAPM Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (March 2005) The Value Premium and the CAPM

24 24 The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August 2003) The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence The Corporate Cost of Capital and the Return on Corporate Investment Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College – Tuck School of Business; (April 1998) The Corporate Cost of Capital and the Return on Corporate Investment Value Versus Growth: The International Evidence Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College – Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August 1997) Value Versus Growth: The International Evidence Cross Section of Expected Stock ReturnsFama, Eugene and Kenneth R. French, Journal of Finance 47 (1992) Luck Versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund ReturnsFama, Eugene F. and French, Kenneth R., (December 14, 2009 ) Mutual Fund Performance Fama, Eugene F. and French, Kenneth R.; National Bureau of Economic Research (June 30, 2008) Mutual Fund Performance The Cost of Active Investing French, Kenneth R. (March 13, 2008) The Cost of Active Investing False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas L. Barras, O. Scaillet, and R. Wermers (July 2006) False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas The Key Academic Research

25 25 The Informational Efficiency of Stock Prices Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (April 2006) The Informational Efficiency of Stock Prices Market Efficiency: A Theoretical Distinction and So What? Markowitz, Harry M., Financial Analysts Journal (2005) Market Efficiency: A Theoretical Distinction and So What? The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics Malkiel, Burton G. Princeton University, CEPS Working Paper No. 91 (April 2003) The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets Malkiel, Burton G. Princeton University, Princeton University - Bendheim Center for Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (2003) Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets Mutual Fund Performance and Manager Style Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors Financial Analysts Journal (January / February 2001 ) Market Efficiency, Long-term Returns, and Behavioral Finance Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago Graduate School of Business (February 1997) Market Efficiency, Long-term Returns, and Behavioral Finance Asset Management: Active vs. Passive Management Sinquefield, Rex A., Dimensional Fund Advisors (October 1995) Asset Management: Active vs. Passive Management The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945-1964 Jensen, Michael, The Journal of Finance (May 1968 ) Efficient Markets Hypothesis Fama, Eugene F.,University of Chicago (1965) Behavior of Securities Prices — 1965 Samuelson, Paul, MIT (1965) The Statistical Properties of Internationally Diversified Portfolios Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (September 2004) The Statistical Properties of Internationally Diversified Portfolios The Key Academic Research

26 26 What Measures the Benefits of Diversification Statman, Meir, Santa Clara University - Department of Finance and Jonathan Scheid, Loring Ward Advisor Services (May 2005) How Much Diversification is Enough Statman, Meir Santa Clara University - Department of Finance (October 2002) What Measures the Benefits of Diversification How Much Diversification is Enough Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk? Campbell, John Y., Martin Lettau, Burton G. Malkiel and Yexiao Xu, Harvard University - Department of Economics, New York University - Department of Finance, Princeton University - Bendheim Center for Finance and University of Texas at Dallas - Department of Finance & Managerial Economics (March 2000) Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk? The Statistical Properties of Internationally Diversified Portfolios Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (September 2004) Several recent studies have cast doubt on the diversification benefits of The Statistical Properties of Internationally Diversified Portfolios The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August 2003) The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence What Measures the Benefits of Diversification Statman, Meir, Santa Clara University - Department of Finance and Jonathan Scheid, Loring Ward Advisor Services (May 2005) What Measures the Benefits of Diversification How Much Diversification is Enough Statman, Meir Santa Clara University - Department of Finance (October 2002) Diversification and Portfolio Risk Harry Markowitz, University of Chicago (1962) The Key Academic Research

27 Your Portfolio with a Disciplined & Structured Approach

28 28 The buying and selling of securities for the purpose of rebalancing may have adverse tax consequences.

29 29 Data source: Morningstar Direct 2015. Past performance is no indication of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Bonds are represented by the SBBI Long-Term Bond Index. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot invest and do not reflect the payment of advisory fees associated with a mutual fund or separate account. Returns assume dividend and capital gain reinvestment. Rebalancing does not guarantee a return or protect against a loss. The buying and selling of securities for the purpose of rebalancing may have adverse tax consequences. Rebalancing and a 50% Stocks/50% Bonds Portfolio 1995 – 2014

30 30 For Illustration Purposes Only

31 31 Average Investor vs. Major Indices 1995 – 2014 Average stock investor and average bond investor performances were used from a DALBAR study, Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB), 03/2015. QAIB calculates investor returns as the change in assets after excluding sales, redemptions, and exchanges. This method of calculation captures realized and unrealized capital gains, dividends, interest, trading costs, sales charges, fees, expenses, and any other costs. After calculating investor returns in dollar terms (above), two percentages are calculated: Total investor return rate for the period and annualized investor return rate. Total return rate is determined by calculating the investor return dollars as a percentage of the net of the sales, redemptions, and exchanges for the period. The fact that buy-and-hold has been a successful strategy in the past does not guarantee that it will continue to be successful in the future. S&P 500 returns do not take into consideration any fees. Stock Behavior Gap = 4.66%Bond Behavior Gap = 5.4%

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33 33 Do those ‘Winning’ Managers Persist? U.S. Equity Mutual Funds Maintaining Top Quartile Performance Represented by managers with 12 month trailing outperformance to March of each year. Data source: Standard & Poor’s Does Past Performance Matter? The Persistence Scorecard, June 2014 and www.nytimes.com/2015/04/05/your-money/measure-for-measure-index-funds-rule.html

34 34 1.Design A Plan to Meet Your Life Goals 2.Build Your Plan Using Scientific & Academic Research 3.Protect Your Plan with a Disciplined and Structured Approach In Summary

35 35 Questions? 35


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