1. Segregation and integration in the UK Ludi Simpson Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester Politics and demography ASEN conference, LSE September 29-30 2006

2. www.ccsr.ac.uk/staff/ludi/race.html www.ccsr.ac.uk/staff/ludi/race.html Claims and evidence “Whites will soon become a minority in Birmingham and other major British cities, posing a critical challenge to social stability, Britain’s race relations watchdog has warned. “The warning comes as government statistics show that white and ethnic minority communities are becoming increasingly segregated by growing population movement and immigration. “Phillips will highlight the issue this week at a conference in Leicester, which the CRE predicts will become a plural city by 2011, with the others [Birmingham, Oldham and Bradford] crossing the threshold by 2016.” Sunday Times, March 19 th 2006, David Leppard N o t t r u e!

3. Population dynamics, England Growth of Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations is more through natural growth (reproduction) than immigration, 1991-2001 Black: natural change (excess of births over deaths). Grey: Net migration. Source: Williamson (2003)

4. Natural change 1991-2001 Total personsWhiteBlackIndianPak’niB’shiOther Asian settlement 19915164-1158-37734102527314 Asian growth 91-01 2442-81217432160583448 Small Asian growth79530293233122126 Other areas88538251416846269 Net migration 1991-2001 Total personsWhiteBlackIndian Pak’niB’shi Other Asian settlement 1991-4188-4454-300-358-211741392 Asian growth 91-01 -3481-6599-164-5617431037555 Small Asian growth414-494-549508258185 Other areas-3253-3640-105-416853270 www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/egpd.htm www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/egpd.htm Oldham and Rochdale, Migration 1991-2001

5. www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/migseg/index.html Mixing, growth and migration More mixed wards? (10% each White and Others) Natural growth or immigration? (Non-White in one year) Coloured flight? (Net migration in UK from the least White ward in one year) 19912001BirthsImmigWhiteOther Birmingham18271,411718786 out1,320 out Coventry61120810317 out346 out Dudley45673863 out40 out Sandwell10181376778 out84 out Stoke-on-Trent UA135591476 in7 out Telford & Wrekin UA24161243 in11 out Walsall781805299 out114 out Wolverhampton1317100663 in139 out East Staffs54412158 out8 out

6. www.ccsr.ac.uk->working papers-> “Ghettos of the mind…” Indices of segregation Table 2. Indices of segregation and diversity, for wards of England and Wales Index of dissimilarity (evenness) Index of isolation (exposure) 1991200119912001 White61.458.895.393.5 Caribbean68.9677.67.3 African71.170.64.38.2 Indian65.362.115.615.5 Pakistani75.171.713.917.4 Bangladeshi74.271.610.913.8 Chinese42.241.30.81.2 N of polarised enclaves88

7. Indices of movement and diversity Movement19912001 Migration Dispersal Index (net % moving from Non-White areas)White2.0 All others1.4 Migration Dispersal Index (net % moving from White areas)White-0.1 All others-1.1 Diversity19912001 % Mixed areas (with 10% each of White and other)912 Standardised Reciprocal Diversity Index1.071.78

8. http://asp.ccsr.ac.uk/dwp http://asp.ccsr.ac.uk/dwp Those who move out of inner areas are better off than those who stay, but big inequalities remain

9. Other research Greater London Authority Nov 05 –Simpson’s Diversity Index: greater diversity over time –Polarised enclaves: fewer in 2001 than 1991 –Ghettos: none Poulsen (Johnston and Forrest) Sept 05 –Index of isolation: increased –Ghettos: none Phillips, survey-based Society and Space 05 –Dispersal in fact and in aspirations of young Asian families Dorling and Rees 2002, and many others –Social geography becoming more polarised Rees, 2005 for Joseph Rowntree Foundation

10. What’s round the corner? and what can be done about it? More Black and Asian areas, with probably higher proportions of Black and Asian residents –Indices of ‘isolation’ will go up for Asian populations –Not policy sensitive: we don’t ask people not to have children More dispersal to other areas: diversity and mixing; a residential mosaic –Increase labour market equality and economic prosperity –Remove barriers in the housing market –The safety and comfort of potential new areas outside settlement areas

11. What’s round the corner? and what can be done about it? Fear –at top and bottom Community cohesion / CRE policies for equality, interaction and participation View clusters as a means to integration, not its antithesis Reduce inflammatory views of Black areas New thinking on the meaning of integration and segregation