1. Judith L. Meece, UNC-CH Matthew Irvin, UNC-CH Robert Petrin, Penn State Univ. Kai Schafft, Penn State Univ. Overview of Rural High School Aspirations Study U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Educational Sciences Research and Development Center Grant R305A040056-06

2. Collaborators Thomas W. Farmer, Co-Principal Investigator Soo-yong Byun, Postdoctoral Scholar Bryan Hutchins, Research Associate Kimberly Dadisman, Investigator Dylan Robertson, Investigator Glen Elder, Investigator Vonnie McLoyd, Investigator

3. Objectives of Overview Describe aims and design of Rural HSA Project; Present information on rural youth’s adult aspirations; Present information on educational barriers of rural youth; Present information on influence of community context on youths’ future aspirations; Discuss the implications of the research for school programs and school-community relations.

4. Aims of Rural HSA Study To generate new information about rural high school students’ educational, vocational, and residential plans and aspirations for the future; To assess rural high school students’ preparatory activities and planning for postsecondary education, work, and adult life; To examine the impact of school experiences, geographical location, economic status, cultural or ethnic origins, family background, peer relations, and community characteristics on rural students’ aspirations and preparatory activities.

5. Giving a Voice to Rural Schools “A lot of our students don’t think they have a future. Its hard to motivate them.” (School Guidance Counselor) “We moved to a rural community to escape city schools. There is a lot that city schools can learn from rural schools.” (Parent of Participant) “I plan to be a millionaire and to be very successful. Thank you for coming to our school.” (High School Student)

6. Design of RHSA Study

7. Rural HSA Sample Selection Sampling frame was 101,104 public schools in the 2004-05 Common Core of Data; Schools with one or more students in 9 th grade or above were included; Schools were classified according to subtypes based on locale designations (6, 7, 8, & 43), and eligibility for Rural Education Achievement Programs (RLIS & SRSA); Sample currently includes 73 randomly selected schools across these school types. Focus groups in 12 randomly selected school sites.

8. Rural High School Aspiration Sites by Type of School Locale 6, 7, 8 RLIS Rural Remote SRSA

9. Rural HSA Sample School Type Number of Schools School Size Poverty Status Minority Percent Rural Remote4332 - 4180 - 99%0 - 95% Rural Distant19 81 - 66118 - 82%1 - 99% Rural Fringe3 123 - 400 31 - 81%3 - 85% Small Town8 165 - 188316 - 51%1 - 56%

10. Rural Education Achievement Programs School TypeRLISSRSA Rural Remote715 Rural Distant85 Rural Fringe11 Small Town31 Total1922

11. Rural HSA Measures: Students Demographic characteristics Educational and vocational expectations Perceived educational and vocational barriers Family background characteristics School engagement, connection, and participation Peer and friend networks Self-reported academic achievement, efficacy, and values Postsecondary preparation activities from school, family, and community resources

12. Rural HSA Measures: Parents & Teachers Items paralleled student survey with regards to: –Educational & vocational expectations for individual students in the sample –Perceived barriers for educational and vocational plans for individual students in the sample –Behavioral and academic characteristics for individual students in the sample –Perceptions of academic preparation, school climate –Background information on parents and teachers

13. Rural HSA Measures: Administrator Survey Teacher quality Residence Class size Programs available High school transitions programs Strengths of schools and community Challenges of schools and community Employment opportunities in community

14. Aspiration Questions Educational Aspirations –How far in school would you MOST like to go? Occupational Aspirations –What type of job or occupation do you plan to have right after high school? –At age 30, what kind of job or occupation would you MOST like to have at age 30? Residential Aspirations –Where do you WANT to live when you are age 30?

15. Educational Aspirations

16. Educational Aspirations of Rural Youth Totals vs. Rural Remote

17. Where Do Rural Youth Plan To Attain Postsecondary Education?

18. Summary: Rural Students’ Educational Plans Approximately 7% of youth reported that they were unsure of their educational plans after high school. Only a small percent (6%) of rural youth expected to discontinue their education after high school. Approximately 13% of rural youth expected to attend and complete two years of postsecondary education at a community college or vocational/trade school. Approximately 77% of rural youth plan to complete college or an advanced graduate or professional degree. Educational plans of youth in Rural Remote locations were comparable to other rural youth in the RHSA sample.

19. Future Vocational Aspirations

20. TotalRural Remote N%N% Professional3,52051.31,43848.8 Education (School teacher)4776.92167.3 Technical3765.51575.3 Manager1342551.9 Proprietor1231.8481.6 Sales530.8210.7 Clerical220.370.2 Craftsman991.4401.4 Farmer1321.9792.7 Military1472.1612.1 Protective Service2934.31194 Homemaker70.14 Service54682508.5 Operative1592.3642.2 Laborer5017.32528.5 Don't know27241344.5 No, None, Retired50.13 Total 6,866100 2,948100 Vocational Aspirations (at age 30) of Rural Youth : Total vs. Rural Remote

22. Required Educational Levels of Rural Youth Total vs. Rural Remote

23. Summary: Rural Students’ Vocational Plans Approximately 13% of rural students planned to work in a full-time job right after high school (work-bound); only 16% of these students knew the type of job they planned to pursue. Only 9% of rural students thought they would have the same job or career as a family member. By age 30, 90% of rural students planned to work or to have a career. Nearly 50% of rural youth aspired to careers in healthcare, education, and technical fields.

24. Future Residential Plans

25. Residential Aspirations (at age 30) of Rural Youth Another State (41%) Same State (54%)

26. Conclusions A large percent of rural youth plan to pursue professional careers that require a college degree (38%) or advanced degree (18%). Geographical isolation was not a strong predictor of rural youths’ educational and vocational plans. Approximately one-third of sample were undecided about their residential plans; another 24% of the sample planned to live in their own community or another rural town or area. The findings have important implications for secondary educational programs to prepare rural youth for their postsecondary transition to adulthood. The findings also have important implications for rural communities if their youth leave to seek educational and vocational opportunities elsewhere and not return to their home communities.

27. Educational Barriers

28. Theoretical Framework Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT) postulates bidirectional relations between cognitive-person (e.g., self- efficacy), behavioral, and contextual variables. SCCT initially posited & recent work explicitly integrated role of barriers

29. Educational Barriers Studies have begun to demonstrate their importance perceived barriers predict career aspirations & outcome expectations findings are mixed Educational barriers predict postsecondary educational expectations among rural Appalachian youth living in high poverty areas (Ali & McWhirter, 2006) Barriers predictive of career outcome expectations but not academic outcome expectations among Midwestern rural youth (Wettersten et al., 2005)

30. Need to Consider Educational Barriers Perceived barriers central to postsecondary attainment as can prevent youth from pursuing aspirations and interests Identifying individual differences especially important for youth that may encounter difficulties in reaching postsecondary goals found gender and ethnic differences

31. Need to Consider Educational Barriers Little work has focused on rural youth or involved limited samples of rural youth Over 50% of U.S. districts and 10 million students are rural Less apt to complete college (Johnson & Strange, 2007; Kusmin, 2007; Provasnik et al., 2007)

32. Purpose Describe educational barriers & clarify individual differences in perceived educational barriers among diverse sample of rural youth

33. Student-Report Measure of Educational Barriers asked whether planning to continue his/her education beyond high school (“No,” “Yes,” and “Not Sure”) if “No” asked how much each of several factors have affected plan not to continue his/her education beyond high school if “Yes” or “Not Sure” asked how difficult (1 = “not at all” to 7 = “very much”) each of several factors may make it to complete his/her postsecondary education

37. Item Response Theory (IRT) Measurement Models

39. Rural High School Students’ Perceptions of Their Local Economy and Economic Prospects Robert A. Petrin Center for Education and Development Science Pennsylvania State University

40. Overview Part of our research has focused on what we have been referring to as students’ “perceptions of community” –Gauging students’ impressions of various aspects of their rural communities (“perceptions of community”) –Understanding how these perceptions are associated with student life choices and plans for the future –Understanding how these perceptions are correlated with student, peer group, school, and community characteristics

41. Overview (Cont.) Today: provide a sense of some of the directions we’ve been taking with this research, and some what we’ve been finding –Focus for this talk: 6 Items from survey pertaining to sense of local economy and economic prospects

43. Overview (Cont.) In working with these items we draw upon various methodologies to... –Aggregate student responses to make them more analytically tractable, easier to use –Evaluate meaningful patterns of responses In particular, we’ve made extensive use of Factor Analysis(*) Latent Class Analysis

45. Overview (Cont.) In this case, the indicators are categorical, the resulting CFA measures are interval-scaled –Can use resulting measures to make simple mean comparisons, by selected outcomes and predictors

46. Student Perceptions Vary By Locale – Overall Rural Remote Students Have The Least Robust Outlook Regarding Economic Prospects

47. Perceptions of Economic Conditions Matter Less with Respect to Educational Aspirations than Do Perceptions of Economic Prospects...

48. Overall, Perceptions of Economic Conditions Have a Stronger Association with “Getting Away From Area” than Do Perceptions of Economic Prospects

49. Additional Analyses We have also used regression-style analyses to examine predictors of Economic Conditions, Economic Prospects –Throughout our exploratory analyses (not shown), we consistently found evidence that such associations differed by gender –Therefore we modeled differences in predictive relationships by gender

50. Selected Findings In these gender-specific analyses we found... –For Boys: Self-reported academic program tends to play a stronger role for boys than is case for girls –College Prep boys have a less robust sense of economic prospects (vs. boys in General Program) –Voc/Tech/Ag boys have a more robust sense of economic prospects (vs. boys in General Program)

51. Selected Findings (Cont.) –For Boys (Cont.): Preliminary analyses suggest that school isolation plays a stronger role for boys than for girls Boys from more highly educated households have a more favorable opinion of economic prospects

52. Selected Findings (Cont.) –For Girls: Higher achieving girls have a more robust sense of local economic conditions (but perhaps a less robust sense of their own prospects) There are statistically significant regional effects on perceptions of local economic conditions (all regions are more favorable relative to North East)

53. Selected Findings (Cont.) –For Both Boys and Girls: Students in higher grade levels tend to have a less favorable sense of local economy Students in poorer schools have less favorable views of local economy, and a less favorable views of their economic prospects

54. Additional Analyses Latent Class Analyses –Distinct typologies exist by gender –Generally the structure of girls’ responses is more complex than boys’ Multilevel Analyses (i.e., “HLM-type models”) –Provide a richer perspective on the unique contribution of various community factors by controlling for individual schools’ idiosyncrasies