1. Shaping a Sustainable Future Ian Lowe 22 February, 2007

2. The fundamental premise  Future not somewhere we are going, but something we are creating  Many possible futures  We should be trying to shape a sustainable future

3. How could we create unsustainable futures ?  Exponential population growth  Growing consumption per person  Deplete mineral resources, e.g. Oil  Over-use fisheries, forests, water  Disrupt the global climate  Base economy on resource use  Widen inequality  Embrace materialism

5. “Our present course is unsustainable - postponing action is no longer an option” - GEO 2000 [UNEP 1999] “Our present course is unsustainable - postponing action is no longer an option” - GEO 2000 [UNEP 1999]

7. Oil, gas resources  Oil peak 2009 _+ 6 years ?  Gas peak ~ 2040 ?  [ no energy shortage ]

8. Other resource issues  Water  Productive land  Forests  Fisheries

9. Economic futures  Increasing resource use  Degradation of natural systems  Value-adding, innovation crucial  So education, research investments  Sustainable economic future ?  Beyond growth to steady state ?  Link to quality of life ?

10. Social cohesion  World becoming less equal  Increasing tension within and between societies  All of us should be able to realise our potential – physically, intellectually, emotionally  UNDP: all could have shelter, food, water, health care and education for about 5 % of global military budget !

12. Millennium Assessment Report  Released March 2005  Experts and Review Process Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries 80-person independent board of review editors 80-person independent board of review editors Reviewed by 850 experts and governments Reviewed by 850 experts and governments  Governance Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000 Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000 Authorised by governments through 4 conventions Authorised by governments through 4 conventions

13. Finding #1 Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth Millennium Assessment Report 2005

14. Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction Millennium Assessment Report 2005

15. Increased likelihood of non-linear changes There is established but incomplete evidence that our impacts on ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of non-linear changes … with important consequences for human well - being There is established but incomplete evidence that our impacts on ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of non-linear changes … with important consequences for human well - being Millennium Assessment Report 2005

16. An example of non-linear change Millennium Assessment Report 2005

17. The Knowledge Base  Much damage done by applying narrow knowledge to part of the system  Develop a much better understanding of complex natural systems, including links between local and global processes  Use this improved understanding to reduce the impacts of human activities on the natural world

18. Sustainability science “a growing body of evidence and experience suggests that the needed understanding must encompass the interaction of global processes with the ecological and social characteristics of particular places and sectors…” Kates et al, 2001

19. Sustainability Science  Explicitly recognises our ignorance of complex self-organising systems  Works at multiple scales of organisation  Knowledge provisional, subjective  Includes social, ecological characteristics of place or region  Requires new styles of organisation  Promotes social learning

20. Some possible futures  Market forces - growing inequality and worsening environmental problems  Fortress world - keep order by force ?  Breakdown - collapse of support systems  Political response - but where is the will to take the hard decisions ?  “Great transition” to sustainable world driven by new values

21. Collapse: Diamond  Societies choose to fail or survive  Problems can be resolved  Cultural values, social institutions determine if concerted response  “declining standard of living in a steadily deteriorating environment”  Signs of hope: new thinking  Survival: new values, practices

22. The underlying drivers  Population growth  Consumption per person  Societal values

23. New suite of values  Domination of nature becomes ecological sensitivity  Consumerism replaced by quality of life  Individualism -> human solidarity

24. Sustainable community will:  Have stabilised its population & footprint  Use resources sustainably to produce a dynamic, flexible economy  Be approaching a zero waste society  Have drastically cut carbon emissions  Require developments biodiversity +ve  Be committed to improving equality  Therefore serious TBL assessments  Process for difficult decisions

25. HEALTHIER futures  Humane  Ecocentric Approach  Long Time Horizon  Informed  Efficient  Resourced

26. Utopian?  1800: end slavery  1900: universal franchise  1987:Berlin Wall South Africa without apartheid South Africa without apartheid lap-tops, mobile phones lap-tops, mobile phones good coffee, civilised licensing laws good coffee, civilised licensing laws in Queensland in Queensland  Practically all features of modern life

27. There are always excuses for not taking action and without a genuine popular mandate for change, we cannot be surprised or outraged if courage fails and progress is minimal. There are always excuses for not taking action and without a genuine popular mandate for change, we cannot be surprised or outraged if courage fails and progress is minimal. Our responsibility is to help change that popular motivation and so give courage to our leaders. Our responsibility is to help change that popular motivation and so give courage to our leaders. Rowan Williams, Archbishop of Canterbury, 2005

28. Prendre des chemins de courage!