1. Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast System C. Mark Eakin 1, Gang Liu 1, Mingyue Chen 2, and Arun Kumar 2 Mark.Eakin@noaa.gov http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov1 2

2. Funding from Collaboration between -NOAA Coral Reef Watch in Silver Spring, Maryland -NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Maryland -NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Acknowledgements 2

3. 1998 Global Bleaching Over 15% of the world’s reefs died after bleaching during 1997-1999 El Niño and La Niña 3 CRW alerted the community in near-real-time

4. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov 2010 Southeast Asia June Photo: Takuma Fujii June Photo: Mark Eakin July Photo: Naneng Setiasih CRW alerted the community in near-real-time and 3-months in advance

5. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov2010Apr-Jul LIM-Based Bleaching Outlook 2010Apr-Jul Bleaching Alert Area Bleaching Outlook 5 Statistical, deterministic model Single model output 5

6. CFS-based Seasonal Bleaching Outlook (Apr-Jul 2010) -Probabilistic outlook -28 weekly ensemble runs Alert Level 2 WatchWarning Alert Level 1 Probabilistic outlook for each stress level: 90% probability 60% probability

7. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Applying satellite algorithm Applying satellite algorithm to forecasts SST forecast model SST forecast model SST forecast skill SST forecast skill Building the bleaching outlookBuilding the bleaching outlook Testing the bleaching outlook Testing the bleaching outlook Outline 7

8. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov 8 CRW Satellite-Based Products Primary Products: SST-based 50km Nighttime-only SST Coral – specific SST Anomaly HotSpot Degree Heating Week Bleaching Alert Areas

9. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov SST Time Week-0Week-12 Bleaching threshold (MMMSST+1ºC) Maximum Monthly Mean SST Climatology (MMMSST) Degree Heating Weeks  ( HotSpot value  duration ) 12 weeks  1°C  4 DHWs  coral bleaching is expected  8 DHWs  mass bleaching and mortality are expected bcad HotSpots CRW Operational Bleaching HotSpots and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) Nowcasting 9

10. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Proposed Bleaching HotSpots and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) Forecasting HotSpot from Forecasts Degree Heating Weeks  ( HotSpot value  duration ) 12 weeks  1°C SST Time Week-0Week-12  4 DHWs  coral bleaching is expected  8 DHWs  mass bleaching and mortality are expected 10

11. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov SST Forecast Bleaching Thermal Stress Forecast - Weekly HotSpot forecasts - Weekly HotSpot forecasts - Weekly Degree Heating Week forecast - Weekly Degree Heating Week forecast Coral Bleaching Outlook NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System 11

12. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov NOAA-ESRL Linear Inverse Model, 2x2° resolutionNOAA-ESRL Linear Inverse Model, 2x2° resolution Uses Principal Components/EOF AnalysisUses Principal Components/EOF Analysis The leading 30 EOFs are retained for prediction, explaining average 75% of the total variance in the SST time series dataThe leading 30 EOFs are retained for prediction, explaining average 75% of the total variance in the SST time series data Weekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data used for training and are used as model inputWeekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data used for training and are used as model input LIM SST forecast model NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System 12

13. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov NOAA-ESRL Linear Inverse Model, 2x2° resolutionNOAA-ESRL Linear Inverse Model, 2x2° resolution Uses Principal Components/EOF AnalysisUses Principal Components/EOF Analysis The leading 30 EOFs are retained for prediction, explaining average 75% of the total variance in the SST time series dataThe leading 30 EOFs are retained for prediction, explaining average 75% of the total variance in the SST time series data Weekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data used for training and are used as model inputWeekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data used for training and are used as model input LIM SST forecast model NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System 13 NOAA-NCEP Climate Forecast System Model, 1x1° resolutionNOAA-NCEP Climate Forecast System Model, 1x1° resolution Ensemble of 28 runs each weekEnsemble of 28 runs each week Thermal stress for each pixel arranged warmest to coolest, redistributed into 28 ensembles to determine probabilitiesThermal stress for each pixel arranged warmest to coolest, redistributed into 28 ensembles to determine probabilities Data assimilation based on Weekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data are used as initial SST conditionsData assimilation based on Weekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data are used as initial SST conditions CFS SST forecast model

14. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction 14 Values significant at 95% level are shown, all months initial conditions.

15. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction 15 Values significant at 95% level are shown, June initial conditions.

16. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction 16 Values significant at 95% level are shown, November initial conditions.

17. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Prediction for July 17-23, 2008 (4-week lead-time) Bleaching HotSpot Prediction Bleaching Degree Heating Weeks DHW = 12-week accumulation of HotSpots (  threshold) SST Prediction From SST to Bleaching Thermal Stress Forecast 17

18. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Prediction for July 17-23, 2008 (4-week lead-time) HotSpot forecast DHW forecast Bleaching Outlook From Bleaching Thermal Stress to Outlook 18

19. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Weekly Bleaching Outlooks (xx% probability) 1-week leadtime... 2-week leadtime 3-week leadtime N-week leadtime (currently up to 18 weeks) NOAA CRW Seasonal Bleaching Outlook 19 Seasonal Bleaching Outlook (xx% probability) 60% probability

20. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Probabilistic global tropical ocean prediction -Covering 45ºS to 45ºN (all coral reef areas) -1x1 degree spatial resolution -Weekly temporal resolution -3-18 week lead times -Updates weekly CFS-Based Thermal Stress Outlook: Jul-Oct 2012 20 60% Probabilities by week

21. CFS-Based Thermal Stress Outlook: Jul-Oct 2012 -Low probability of mass bleaching in most reef regions -Highest risk (NW Hawaiian Islands) in area with relatively low skill 60% probability Alert Level 2 (DHW ≥ 8) Watch Warning Alert Level 1 (DHW ≥ 4) Probabilistic outlook for each stress level: 90% probability

22. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Summary New system provides global coverage New system provides global coverage with probabilistic outlook SST prediction skill highest in central SST prediction skill highest in central and eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Performs well in the Caribbean and Performs well in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef Provides general patterns of potential Provides general patterns of potentialbleaching - enables managers and scientists to prepare 22

23. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Next Steps: Transition from CFSv1 to CFSv2 by Transition from CFSv1 to CFSv2 by end of 2012 CFSv2 adds an increased spatial resolution CFSv2 adds an increased spatial resolution and number of ensembles in first 45 days Complete evaluation and analysis of skill Complete evaluation and analysis of skill 23

24. Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast System C. M. Eakin 1, G. Liu 1, M. Chen 2, and A. Kumar 2 Mark.Eakin@noaa.gov http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov1 2 Thank you