1. Chapter Four - Population: World Patterns, Regional Trends Singapore : no more than two in 1960, at least two in 1986: The structure of the present controls the content of the future - in population policy. Age/Sex structure, pattern, trend, migration, social/economic impacts are all related to the population Population Geography - Focuses on the number, composition, and distribution of human beings in relation to variations in the conditions of earth space, such as the economic development, resources distribution, food supply, health and others related to population. Demography - statistical study of human population,

2. Current Population Population in the US (www.census.gov) -287,990,095, Sept. 8, 2002, -290,113,455, Jan 26, 2003 -291,968,356, Sep 3, 2003 -292,504,294, Feb 2, 2004 -295,173,050 Jan 2, 2005 -298,052,194, Feb 6, 2006 -303,339,763, Jan 31, 2008 -305,207,899, Sept. 20, 2008 an increase rate of 3 million per year. or 1 % growth rate. World Population: 6,248,808,932 (9-8-2002) 6,315,271,206, (9-3-2003) 6,345,791,925, (2-2-2004) 6,410,187,864 (1-2-2005) 6,496,041,739 (2-6-2006) 6,647,469,365 (1-31-2008) 6,724,863,799 (9-20-2008) an increase of 79 million per year, or 1.2% growth rate

3. Population Growth Implications of the Numbers In 2050, 9 billion is projected. 1 billion - 1820 (estimated) 2 billion - 1930 3 billion - 1950 4 billion - 1975 5 billion - 1987 6 billion - 1999 9 billion - 2050 (projected)

4. World Population Share (fig 4.1) China 21% India 17% Other Asia/Oceania 17% Sub-Saharan Africa 11% Latin America 8% Near East/North Africa 6% China 15% India 18% Other Asia/Oceania 20% Sub-Saharan Africa 18% Latin America 9% Near East/North Africa 8% 20002050

5. Population issues.. Malnutrition and starvation - caused by the overpopulation, mainly a matter of distribution than of inability to produce enough food worldwide. loss of farmland, air/water pollution, deforestation, exhaustion of natural resources...

6. Some Population Definitions Cohort - same age.. Birth Rates: Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Fertility Rates Death Rates Population Pyramids Natural Increase Doubling Times

7. CBR - Crude Birth Rate “Crude” - live births per 1000 population without regard to the age or sex composition of that population. –low : 18 or less, (developed + China) –transitional - 18-30 (developing) –Religious/Urbanization factors High CBR -Most in Africa, western and southern Asia and Latin America. 40 million births go unregistered per year.

8. China’s population policy Mao - 1965-1976 pop. increased from 540 to 852 million, 37 to 25 CBR 1970 - two children policy – CBR dropped to 19.5. However, pop was high already. 1979 - One child policy with incentive/penalties caused murdering of infant baby girls and high abortion rates 1984 - one-child policy dropped in rural 2000 - still implemented one-child policy. Relaxed policy seen recently.

9. How to reduce CBR, especially in developing countries? Improved women’s education (some correlation, not absolutely related) –one year of female schooling can reduce the fertility rate by between 5% and 10%. –demand of children in poor country - share workload

10. Total Fertility Rate (fig 4.4) No. of children per childbearing-aged woman, a more reliable data since it minimizes the effects of fluctuation in the population structure. TFR = 2.1 - 2.5 replacement level (replace current population) (some countries’ girls would die young) 2.8 is the current world level. 44% of pop in countries with TFR < 2.1, and the % is increasing. European Union in negative rate of natural increases. US. Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Singapore are below replacement level. China is at 1.7 Developed - drop to 1.6 from 2.0, 1.4 by 2006 U.S. - 2.1 (Hispanic-3.0, African American-2.2, Asian-1.9)

11. Chapter 4 11 CDR (Crude Death Rate) (fig 4.7) Misleading sometimes, countries with high proportion of elderly people (Denmark/Sweden) is higher Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = deaths age 1 or less/1000 live births (fig 4.8) HIV/AIDS - the 4th most common cause of death worldwide

12. Chapter 4 12 Dependency Ratio Number of dependents, old or young, that each 100 people in the productive years (15-64) must support. China - boys preference and one-child policy causes 1 million excess males a year,entering marriage market beginning about 2100. (never-married men outnumber their female counterparts by 2 to 1) Excessive males in society caused many social problems…..

13. Chapter 4 13 Doubling Time (Table 4.1) Linear vs. Exponential Growth Doubling time - time to double the current population RateDT1998 0.5141Ireland 0.7594Australia 1.0070China 1.5046Brazil 2.0035Costa Rica 2.5028Chad 3.0024Nigeria 3.5020Yemen

14. Chapter 4 14 100 Million Women are Missing China/India - preference for boys. For every 100 males, there are 93.2 females in India, 120 boys per 100 girls in China. Some areas in China, newborn ratio reaches 140 males per 100 females Muslim countries: Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates ; ratio ranging from 116:100 to 186:100. Cultural norms and practice, not poverty or underdevelopment, seem to determine the fate and swell the numbers of the world’s 100 million missing women. Main factors: abortion of female fetuses, infanticide and food favoritism, 40 million alone in India. Not all poor countries, exception: Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Caribbean