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Outlook 2004 Pinnacle Advisory GroupPinnacle Realty Investments Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone:

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Presentation on theme: "Outlook 2004 Pinnacle Advisory GroupPinnacle Realty Investments Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Outlook 2004 Pinnacle Advisory GroupPinnacle Realty Investments Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com

2 National Lodging Market Top 25 Markets – 2002 Total U.S. Market Through April 2003 National Projections

3 National Lodging Market Top 25 Markets – 2002

4 Top 25 Markets Room Supply Percent Change - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group INDUSTRY AVERAGE 1.8 %

5 Top 25 Markets ADR Percent Change - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group INDUSTRY AVERAGE -1.5 %

6 Top 25 Markets Occupancy 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research INDUSTRY AVERAGE 59.2 %

7 Top 25 Markets RevPAR 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

8 National Lodging Market Total U.S. Market Through April 2003

9 Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average To April 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

10 Total United States Occupancy and ADR Twelve Month Moving Average To Apr 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

11 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Twelve Months Ending April Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

12 Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Months Ended April 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

13 National Lodging Market National Projections

14 * Occupancy Flat * Demand Lags, Then Recovers * Slow RevPAR Growth * Potential Threat – War/Terrorism U.S. Lodging Outlook * Supply Growth Significantly Lower * Pressure on Room Rates

15 Total United States Supply/Demand Percent Change 1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

16 Total United States Occupancy Percent 1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

17 Total United States Average Daily Rate 1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

18 Total United States RevPAR Percent Change 1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

19 New England Lodging Market

20 New England Occupancy - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

21 New England Average Daily Rate – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

22 New England RevPAR – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

23 New England Change in Performance - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

24 New England Change in Performance – YTD June 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

25 Suburban Boston Lodging Market Statistics Projections

26 Suburban Boston Lodging Market Statistics

27 Suburban Boston Statistics

28 Suburban Boston Occupancy 1995-2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

29 Suburban Boston Average Room Rate 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

30 Suburban Boston RevPAR 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

31 Suburban Boston Lodging Supply 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

32 Suburban Boston Occupancy YTD June 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

33 Suburban Boston Average Daily Rate YTD 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

34 Suburban Boston RevPAR YTD 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

35 Suburban Boston Lodging Market Projections

36 Suburban Boston 2003 Continued Lack of Overflow from Boston Major Demand Generators Report only limited increases in demand Shorter Booking Window New Supply Less but Still a Factor Pent-up demand

37 Pinnacle Projections Suburban Boston 2003 20022003Change Occupancy58.3%55.0%-5.7% Average Rate $97.20$92.75-4.6% RevPAR$56.69$51.01-10.0%

38 Suburban Boston 2004 Stronger Convention Year for Boston Improving economy Limited New Supply Stable Geopolitical Situation Weak Dollar

39 Pinnacle Projections Suburban Boston 2004 20022003Change Occupancy55.0%57.0%3.6% Average Rate $92.75$93.751.1% RevPAR$51.01$53.444.8%

40 Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Statistics New Supply Demand Trends Projections

41 Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Statistics

42 Boston / Cambridge Occupancy 1989 – 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

43 Boston / Cambridge Average Room Rate 1989-2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

44 Boston / Cambridge RevPAR 1989-2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

45 Boston / Cambridge Lodging Supply 1989 - 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

46 Boston / Cambridge Occupancy YTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

47 Boston / Cambridge Average Room Rate YTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

48 Boston / Cambridge RevPAR YTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

49 Boston / Cambridge Change in RevPAR 1996 – YTD June 2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

50 Boston / Cambridge Change in Performance By Market Area - 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

51 Boston / Cambridge Change in Performance By Market Area – YTD June 2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

52 Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market New Supply

53 Boston / Cambridge New Supply 2003 Embassy Suites - Airport – 273 Rooms - April Residence Inn – Charlestown – 168 Rooms – May Hotel Marlowe – E. Cambridge – 236 Rooms – May Commonwealth Hotel – Kenmore Square 149 - Rooms - May Courtyard Hotel – Back Bay - 90 - Rooms - September/October

54 Boston / Cambridge New Supply 2004 Hotel Onyx – N. Station – 112 Rooms – Winter/Spring Jurys Doyle – Back Bay – 220 Rooms – Spring Clarion – N. Station – 88 Rooms – Summer Hampton Inn and Suites – Crosstown – 175 Rooms – Summer

55 Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Demand Trends

56 Boston / Cambridge Demand Trends Declining Corporate Demand –Economy –Geopolitical Situation Declining Group Demand –Weak Corporate Demand –Off Convention Years Declining Airline Crew Demand –Economy –Airline Industry Woes

57 Boston / Cambridge Demand Trends Increasing Leisure Demand –“Buying” Demand Through Lower Rates –Increasing Use of the Internet Increasing Government Demand –Increased Per Diem –Homeland Security

58 Factors Affecting Boston / Cambridge Performance vs. National Performance Stronger Supply Increases Heavy Reliance on Technology and Financial Services Industries Popular Destination with International Travelers

59 Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Projections

60 Factors Affecting Demand 2H 2003 Fewer Conventions than 2H 2002 New Supply Shorter Booking Window Improving Economy More Stable Geopolitical Situation Weak Dollar

61 Pinnacle Operators Survey 2003 18 Hotels, 7,900 Rooms Occupancy Down 2.4 Points Average Rate Down 7.3 Percent RevPAR Down 10.2 Percent

62 Pinnacle Projections Boston / Cambridge 2003 20022003Change Occupancy72.3%68.8%-4.8% Average Rate $165.04$151.84-8.0% RevPAR$119.32$104.46-12.4%

63 Factors Affecting Demand 2004 Strong Convention Year New Supply Improving Economy More Stable Geopolitical Situation Weak Dollar MOTT Budget Reduction

64 Pinnacle Operators Survey 2004 18 Hotels, 7,900 Rooms Occupancy Up 1.4 Points Average Rate Up 2.5 Percent RevPAR Up 4.8 Percent

65 Pinnacle Projections Boston / Cambridge 2004 20032004Change Occupancy68.8%70.5%2.5% Average Rate $151.84$155.632.5% RevPAR$104.46$109.725.0%

66 Outlook 2004 Pinnacle Advisory GroupPinnacle Realty Investments Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com


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