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Outlook 2004 Pinnacle Advisory GroupPinnacle Realty Investments Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com
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National Lodging Market Top 25 Markets – 2002 Total U.S. Market Through April 2003 National Projections
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National Lodging Market Top 25 Markets – 2002
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Top 25 Markets Room Supply Percent Change - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group INDUSTRY AVERAGE 1.8 %
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Top 25 Markets ADR Percent Change - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group INDUSTRY AVERAGE -1.5 %
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Top 25 Markets Occupancy 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research INDUSTRY AVERAGE 59.2 %
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Top 25 Markets RevPAR 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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National Lodging Market Total U.S. Market Through April 2003
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Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average To April 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Total United States Occupancy and ADR Twelve Month Moving Average To Apr 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Twelve Months Ending April Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Months Ended April 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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National Lodging Market National Projections
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* Occupancy Flat * Demand Lags, Then Recovers * Slow RevPAR Growth * Potential Threat – War/Terrorism U.S. Lodging Outlook * Supply Growth Significantly Lower * Pressure on Room Rates
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Total United States Supply/Demand Percent Change 1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Total United States Occupancy Percent 1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Total United States Average Daily Rate 1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Total United States RevPAR Percent Change 1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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New England Lodging Market
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New England Occupancy - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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New England Average Daily Rate – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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New England RevPAR – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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New England Change in Performance - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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New England Change in Performance – YTD June 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Suburban Boston Lodging Market Statistics Projections
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Suburban Boston Lodging Market Statistics
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Suburban Boston Statistics
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Suburban Boston Occupancy 1995-2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Suburban Boston Average Room Rate 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Suburban Boston RevPAR 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Suburban Boston Lodging Supply 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Suburban Boston Occupancy YTD June 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Suburban Boston Average Daily Rate YTD 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Suburban Boston RevPAR YTD 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Suburban Boston Lodging Market Projections
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Suburban Boston 2003 Continued Lack of Overflow from Boston Major Demand Generators Report only limited increases in demand Shorter Booking Window New Supply Less but Still a Factor Pent-up demand
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Pinnacle Projections Suburban Boston 2003 20022003Change Occupancy58.3%55.0%-5.7% Average Rate $97.20$92.75-4.6% RevPAR$56.69$51.01-10.0%
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Suburban Boston 2004 Stronger Convention Year for Boston Improving economy Limited New Supply Stable Geopolitical Situation Weak Dollar
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Pinnacle Projections Suburban Boston 2004 20022003Change Occupancy55.0%57.0%3.6% Average Rate $92.75$93.751.1% RevPAR$51.01$53.444.8%
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Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Statistics New Supply Demand Trends Projections
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Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Statistics
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Boston / Cambridge Occupancy 1989 – 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge Average Room Rate 1989-2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge RevPAR 1989-2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge Lodging Supply 1989 - 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge Occupancy YTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge Average Room Rate YTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge RevPAR YTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge Change in RevPAR 1996 – YTD June 2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge Change in Performance By Market Area - 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge Change in Performance By Market Area – YTD June 2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market New Supply
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Boston / Cambridge New Supply 2003 Embassy Suites - Airport – 273 Rooms - April Residence Inn – Charlestown – 168 Rooms – May Hotel Marlowe – E. Cambridge – 236 Rooms – May Commonwealth Hotel – Kenmore Square 149 - Rooms - May Courtyard Hotel – Back Bay - 90 - Rooms - September/October
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Boston / Cambridge New Supply 2004 Hotel Onyx – N. Station – 112 Rooms – Winter/Spring Jurys Doyle – Back Bay – 220 Rooms – Spring Clarion – N. Station – 88 Rooms – Summer Hampton Inn and Suites – Crosstown – 175 Rooms – Summer
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Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Demand Trends
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Boston / Cambridge Demand Trends Declining Corporate Demand –Economy –Geopolitical Situation Declining Group Demand –Weak Corporate Demand –Off Convention Years Declining Airline Crew Demand –Economy –Airline Industry Woes
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Boston / Cambridge Demand Trends Increasing Leisure Demand –“Buying” Demand Through Lower Rates –Increasing Use of the Internet Increasing Government Demand –Increased Per Diem –Homeland Security
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Factors Affecting Boston / Cambridge Performance vs. National Performance Stronger Supply Increases Heavy Reliance on Technology and Financial Services Industries Popular Destination with International Travelers
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Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Projections
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Factors Affecting Demand 2H 2003 Fewer Conventions than 2H 2002 New Supply Shorter Booking Window Improving Economy More Stable Geopolitical Situation Weak Dollar
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Pinnacle Operators Survey 2003 18 Hotels, 7,900 Rooms Occupancy Down 2.4 Points Average Rate Down 7.3 Percent RevPAR Down 10.2 Percent
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Pinnacle Projections Boston / Cambridge 2003 20022003Change Occupancy72.3%68.8%-4.8% Average Rate $165.04$151.84-8.0% RevPAR$119.32$104.46-12.4%
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Factors Affecting Demand 2004 Strong Convention Year New Supply Improving Economy More Stable Geopolitical Situation Weak Dollar MOTT Budget Reduction
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Pinnacle Operators Survey 2004 18 Hotels, 7,900 Rooms Occupancy Up 1.4 Points Average Rate Up 2.5 Percent RevPAR Up 4.8 Percent
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Pinnacle Projections Boston / Cambridge 2004 20032004Change Occupancy68.8%70.5%2.5% Average Rate $151.84$155.632.5% RevPAR$104.46$109.725.0%
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Outlook 2004 Pinnacle Advisory GroupPinnacle Realty Investments Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com
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