1. PRESENTED BY: Dr. Darrell Bricker, Chief Executive Officer, Ipsos Global Public Affairs The Big Shift 2013 © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

2. 2 Presentation Today… 1.You Think You Know Canada 2.The Transition to a New Canadian Mindset 3.The Big Shift 4. The New Challenge: Skilled Labour 5. Redemption…

3. 3 So, how well do you think you know your country and fellow Canadians? Let’s find out… 68% of Canadians enjoy quizzes…

4. 4 What province or region is most likely to support the de- criminalization of marijuana? Atlantic Canada What province or region hates taxes the most? Quebec What province or region is least likely to believe it’s disrespectful to put the Canadian Flag on underwear? British Columbia Oh Canada, eh?

5. 5 What province or region is the most religious, most believes the devil is active and most believes we will all perish in the battle of Armageddon? Atlantic Canada What province or region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers? Atlantic Canada What province/region is least likely to believe Canada would be better off if immigrants went back where they came from? Alberta Oh Canada, eh?

6. 6 What province or region is the most environmentally conscious? Atlantic Canada What province or region believes that Anne Murray’s likeness should be put on Canadian Money? Manitoba/Saskatchewan What province or region believes they belong first and foremost to the country, not their province? Ontario Oh Canada, eh?

7. 7 Canada’s Favorite Donut? BOSTON CREAM (18%) MAKING ASSUMPTIONS Leads to Stereotyping Which can lead to bad decisions…

8. 8 Forces Shaping The NEW Canadian Mindset

9. 9 Demography Isn’t Destiny… But… Population In 1960 Canada was 18 million souls, now almost 34 Million Fertility Rate Now Below Replacement Levels Fertility Rate Life Expectancy Has Increased – Especially For Women Life Expectancy By 2015 Seniors Will Outnumber Children Seniors We’ve Become An Urban Nation Urban Nation

10. 10 Demography Isn’t Destiny… But… 78.6% use the internet versus 32.7% world average: even ahead of Europe @ 61.3% Technology Immigration has increased – and the places immigrants come from have changed Cultural Diversity Immigrants represent 6% of rural populations, 25% of urban areas Immigrants and Urban Areas

11. 11 Demography Isn’t Destiny… But… Educational attainment has increased Education Female employment rate has nearly doubled Employment The importance of trade in our economy has quadrupled Trade Government a bigger share of our economy - taking 25% more of our money, but redistributing more too Government

12. 12 Historical Age Pyramid for the Population of Canada 1921 to… 1961 2011 MALEFEMALE

13. 13 Population Growth for G-8 Countries Canada Leads the Pack CANADA UNITED STATES UK ITALY FRANCE RUSSIA JAPAN GERMANY  2001—2006 2006—2011

14. 14 The Top 10 Countries of Birth of Recent Immigrants to Canada (Caribbean)

15. 15 The Change in Immigrant Entry Classification: Emphasis is on Economic Immigrants… Refugees 19,204 Other Immigrants 1,835 Economic Immigrants 35,840 Family Class 42,475 1986 Refugees 24,696 Other Immigrants 8,852 Economic Immigrants 186,913 Family Class 60,220 2010

16. 16 Share of Population By Region East of Ontario Sagging, Ontario and West Surging  3.4  3.8  4.2  0.2  4.2 ATLANTIC QUEBEC ONTARIO PRAIRIES BC  1961 2011

17. 17 Foreign Born: As a Percentage of City Population

18. 18 Introducing…

19. 19 THE BIG SHIFT Confluence of global trends – movement of money and people Declining birth rates and aging population Relative decline of Quebec and the East  Changing levels and sources of immigration Canada’s relative success and positive global image Rise of suburban Toronto and the West as power centers 

20. 20 The Consolidating Right and the Emerging Left OceanPacificAtlantic GeographyToronto suburbs, rural and West Quebec, Atlantic, urban centers ValuesEconomy, government a problem, law and order, old Canadian symbols, suburban sensibilities Equity, inclusion, anti- austerity, government drives solutions, downtown, college-town sensibilities DemographicsMiddle class, established immigrants, college educated, entrepreneurs The afflicted and those who want to help, public sector, arts community, university educated MoodPositive and pro-changeBleak, concerned Voting BlockUnited 35% - 45%Divided 45% - 55% CONSOLIDATING RIGHTEMERGING LEFT

21. Nobody’s Unpredictable  The Consumer Citizen Mindset has Changed  We Are Growing Older  We are Growing by Immigration, not by Births  Our Centre of Political Gravity is Shifting West and Blue  Major Challenge for Canada:  SKILLED WORKERS…

22. Employment Forecasts in Canada: Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada

23. Who’s Having Trouble Filling Jobs? 34% Worldwide, 25% in Canada… Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada

24. 24 Ontario Skilled Labour Force 2006 versus 2031 Even by 2016 Skilled Labour Deficit is almost 750,000 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.5 -2.0 Million Workers 200620112016202120262031 SURPLUS DEFICIT

25. 25 Consistently Hardest Jobs to Fill: Ranking in the top 10 globally for 7 consecutive years … 10 Skilled Trades Workers Engineers Sales Representatives Management Executives 4      Acct./Finance Professionals  Technicians

26. Nobody’s Unpredictable Canada Will Need to ACCELERATE Attracting and Retaining Skilled Immigrants From the World Next Door…

27. Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown. Likelihood of Employees to move to another COUNTRY: FL2. Imagine there was a full-time job available in another country at least three to five hours away by plane for anywhere between two or three years with a minimum 10% increase in your pay and all your moving expenses covered. How likely would you be to consider moving to this new job? Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827 25% (+6 from 19% last year ) of Global workers would very likely consider a move to another country 27 VERY LIKELY

28. Top Countries for Relocation: Canada Near the Top… FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to? Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827 Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown. 28 

29. Nobody’s Unpredictable Some Key Incentives: Our ECONOMY…

30. 30 Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:… Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? 11 October 2012: 36%

31. 31 Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good” …October 2012 data ‘ Very Good / Somewhat Good’ Canada #3 

32. 32 North American (Canada/US) Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? N/C Very Good / Somewhat Good 44 Points CANADA  U.S.

33. 33 Points to Ponder… Canada is NOT the United States The ‘Casino’ economy is NOT the real economy ‘Tough times are relative’ and compared to the rest of the world Canadians are NOT living through ‘tough times’

34. 34 Canada’s New Face Next… What analysts and others say about Canada…

35. 35 Best Country For Business 2011: #1 Canada FORBES:

36. 36 WORLD TRAVEL MARKET Canada most powerful country brand in the world for the second year in a row…

37. 37 Canada has best reputation in world based on survey of 42,000 people in 51 countries… FUTURE BRAND:

38. Nobody’s Unpredictable 38 Canada’s New Face What Global Citizens Think About Us…

39. 39 How The World Views Canadians: Friendly Polite Educated Hard working Care about the environment Different than people in the U.S.A Financially well off Someone I would welcome into my house for a meal Tolerant of people of different racial and cultural backgrounds Cool

40. 40 How The World Views Canadians: A place I'd Like to Visit Some of Most Beautiful Landscapes in the World Where Rights & Freedoms are Respected One of the Best Qualities of Life Anywhere in the World One of the Best Health Care Systems in the World Welcoming to Immigrants A Leader in Working for Peace and Human Rights Around the World If I Had a Choice I would Move to Canada Canadians are sexy

41. 41 Redemption: So, now you get a second chance… How well do you know Canada and your fellow Canadians?

42. 42 What province or region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers? Atlantic Canada What province or region is most likely to have used a mobile device in the bathroom – and most likely to scoop it out if it falls in? Prairies What province or region says that their family is like a ‘well oiled machine’ in getting up and going in the morning? Quebec Oh Canada, eh?

43. 43 Province or region most likely to believe that Aliens have come down from another planet and are actually walking among us, disguised, today? Alberta Canadian city where women are most satisfied with their love life, body image, their personal health and satisfaction overall? Oh Canada, eh? Toronto… WHERE DARRELL LIVES

44. 44