1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
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2. Demographic Transition Egeo 312
Start with Hans Rosling
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Today
Investigate the Demographic Transition Model
Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographics
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1. DEFINING GENERAL TERMS AND CONCEPTS
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Basic Terms
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate
Rate of Natural Increase
Infant Mortality Rate
Fertility Rate
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Crude Birth Rate
CBR
Number of live births per year = 3,180
Divided by population = 200,000
Times 1,000
CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000
CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people
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Crude Death Rate
CDR
Number of deaths per year = 1,860
Divided by population = 200,000
Times 1,000
CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000
CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people
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8. Rate of Natural Increase
RNI
CBR = 15.9
Minus CDR = 9.3
Divided by 10
RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10
= [( ) /10
= 0.66% growth per year
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Infant Mortality Rate IM
number of newborns dying under one year of age = 40
divided by the number of live births during one year = 5,300
Time 1,000
IM = (40/5,300) x 1,000
IM = 7.6 deaths per 1,000 births
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Fertility Rate
Average Number of child births
Per woman
Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace the parents
2.1 is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the US of a Developed Country
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Types of Diagrams
Demographic Transition Model
Population Pyramid
Trend Diagrams
Temporal (over time)
Spatial (over space
Survivorship Diagram
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2.DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
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Time
Natural
increase
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
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14. What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time.
Our main concern has been growth
Now in Industrial Countries it is decline
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15. What is the Demographic Transition Model?
It  is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.
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16. What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is a model a scientific hypothesis
Until the 1990s it seemed to work well with Developed Countries
It worked pretty well with Less Developed Countries
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17. What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method,
so we are continually “experimenting” with it and improving it
In this class we will experiment with it in Mexico & Sweden
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Impacts and Consequences The next several sets of tables summarizes the measures of impacts of the Transition
Four Stages Impacts
1. Very Low Growth
2. High Growth
3. High but Slowing Growth
4. Low Growth
Some now see a fifth stage
5. ??? Decline sets in ????
Factors That Change over the Stages
Family Size
Infant Mortality & Fertility Rates
Family Economics
Status of Kids
Gender Roles
Health Conditions
Transportation Facilities
Child Deaths
Population Size
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19. Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth
Stage 4: Stable low population growth
CBR
High Birth rates
Falling Birth rates
Low Birth rates
Family Size -- planned
Family Planning -- The general plan is to have many kids
Family Planning -- The plan is to have fewer kids
Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less
Infant Mortality Rate/ Fertility Rate
Many children because few survive, high fertility rate
Still many kids because expect few to survive high fertility
Lower infant mortality rates -- less pressure to have children, fertility declines
Small family size low fertility rate
Family Economics
Many children are needed to work the land
Children are still useful for work
Increased mechanization and industrialization means less need for labor/kids
Women are working in great numbers
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Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth
Stage 4: Stable low population growth
CBR
High Birth rates
Falling Birth rates
Low Birth rates
Status of Kids
Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance
Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families
Kids are an expense & “bling”
Gender roles
Strong sex roles
Emancipation of women
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Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth
Stage 4: Stable low population growth
CDR
High Death Rates
Falling Death Rates
Death rates Low
Health Conditions
Poor Diet & Sanitation, Famine and Disease
Improved diet, sanitation & medical care
Slight improvement
No change
Transport Facilities
Limited transport, trade & travel
Improved transport to move food and doctors
Slight Improvement
Stable
Child Deaths
High child mortality before age 5
A decrease in child mortality
Child mortality very low
After Copper, Models of Demography,
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Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth
Stage 4: Stable low population growth
Rate Natural Increase
Very Low Growth
High Growth
Slowing Growth
Low Growth
Population Size
Small Population
Bigger
Biggest
After Copper, Models of Demography,
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Examples
Sweden – Historic Industrial Country
Mexico – An Industrializing Country
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Developed Country
Example
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Developing Country
Example
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Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR
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3. TYPES OF DIAGRAMS
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Types of Diagrams
These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impact
Survivorship Diagram
Stabilization Ratio Diagram
Population Pyramids
Temporal Trends
Spatial Trends
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Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops
Now 90% live past 55yrs old
Less then 10% reached 25yrs old
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Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates
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31. HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition
HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
1 billion in 1804
3  billion in 1960 (33 years later)
5  billion in 1987 (13 years later)
2  billion in 1927 (123 years later)
4  billion in 1974 (14 years later)
6  billion in 1999 (12 years later) 
About 6.8 bil. currently
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32. Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050
Year
Total world population (mid-year figures)
Ten-year growth rate (%)
1950
2,556,000,053
18.9%
1960
3,039,451,023
22.0
1970
3,706,618,163
20.2
1980
4,453,831,714
18.5
1990
5,278,639,789
15.2
2000
6,082,966,429
12.6
20101
6,848,932,929
10.7
20201
7,584,821,144
8.7
20301
8,246,619,341
7.3
20401
8,850,045,889
5.6
20501
9,346,399,468 —
(historical and projected)
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Stabilization of World’s population is still over a generation away
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Guatemala Stage 2
Population Pyramids
Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort
Also can see Demographic Stage
Mexico is going into Stage 3
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Stage 4: Sweden
Demographic Indicators
Birth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.8 births Natural increase: 0.1% per year Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs.age
Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5???
Demographic Indicators
Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.2 births Natural increase: -0.1% per year Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs.age
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USA – what Stage would you say each of these are???
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37. Interactive Pop Pyramid for USA
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Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making?
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Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates.
Result is a decline in CBR
This is a temporal trend diagram.
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Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates.
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Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram
What is occuring here? Speculate why.
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Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries
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Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining?
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Declining World Mortality Rates Map
At the end of the second and the beginning of the third stages of the demographic transition, death rates declined. Where did they first decline and where did they last decline?
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Created by Ingolf Vogeler on 1 February

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ONE LAST CONCEPT
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Dependency Ratio
Ratio of non-working population to working age population
Non-Workers are the young and aged retirees
young are usually 15 yrs old and below
retirees are usually 64 yrs old and above
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Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio now and in the future based on lots of kids but few elderly.
However note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly grow.
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Dependency Ratio Woes
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A rising dependency ratio is also a concern in many countries that are facing aging populations, since it becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to retirees.
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Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population
lots of elderly (nearly black color)
Working age population (purple color)
few kids (dark purple color)
Result is high Dependency Ratio
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50. Play time: Hans Rosling
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51. Play time: gapminder.com
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