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International Studies Association Conference, San Francisco April 3, 2013 The Hunt for Joseph Kony and Members of the Lords Resistance Army James J.F. Forest, Ph.D. Professor and Director, Security Studies, UMass Lowell Senior Fellow, Joint Special Operations University
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Background Who is Kony and the LRA History, 1980s rebellion Source of “recruits” Periods of state sponsorship (Sudan) 25 years of terrorizing villages in northern Uganda and surrounding region Several efforts to solve this problem 2002-05 Operation Iron Fist 2006-08 Juba Talks 2007-08 Operation Lightning Thunder
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Source: Conciliation Resources, 2012. http://www.c-r.org/sites/c-r.org/files/LRA-africa.jpg
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Background 2011: The US deploys 100+ SOF to the region Political dimensions Invisible Children Kony2012 Enough Project Sentinel Project AMISOM (Somalia) Military dimensions AFRICOM ACCE (base in Entebbe) “Light Footprint” Model for the future
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Lessons and Observations 4 “P”s 1. Preparations and Logistics 2. Perceptions and Expectations Management 3. Partnerships and Relationship Management 4. Policy and Politics Data Sources = Field research, interviews in Uganda, Washington DC, AFRICOM headquarters; Documents
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Lessons Learned #1 Preparations and Logistics Figure out how things get done in the local context NGO, Other countries’ forces, etc. Technology may be of limited use Minimize the amount of “stuff” you need (pack judiciously), yet be self-sufficient Landing strips Neighbors Cash/currency Health/medical
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Lessons Learned #2 Perceptions and Expectations Management Manage your own expectations (what you can achieve, tyranny of distance and time, what “should” be) Local militaries’ NCOs, officers, etc. Manage your partner nation’s expectations (what you can do, authorizations, false perceptions of capabilities) Public visibility ‘Owning’ victory
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Lessons Learned #3 Partnerships and Relationship Management Many kinds: Partner nations, NGOs, Mboro herders, etc. Choose the right people for this mission; the wrong person can do far more damage than the right person can repair Plan to invest time Trust is the most important currency Sharing hardships (vs. LOGCAP) Development projects
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Lessons Learned #4 Politics and Policy Political Sensitivities Legacy of colonization; honor, pride Regional dynamics (DRC, CAR, Sudan/S. Sudan) – especially since this is where we are now tracking LRA Local Politics Centralization of authority Informal power Some corruption U.S. domestic politics for premature departure?
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Conclusion Brief sample of a much larger study Overall objective: Inform pre-deployment training of SOF teams to sub-Saharan Africa There will be deployments like this in our future Final report (unclassified) will be available August 2013 on JSOU website (https://jsou.socom.mil/Pages/Publications.aspx)https://jsou.socom.mil/Pages/Publications.aspx
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