1. Chapter 9

2. The Evolution of Campaigning
During election campaigns, political parties help structure voting choice
Successful campaigns need resources to acquire, analyze, and disseminate information
Voter interests
Campaign tactics
Candidate message
Voter turnout

3. The Evolution of Campaigning
Until 1950s, political parties ran most campaigns
Today’s candidates manage own campaigns
Races more candidate-centered
Must campaign for nomination as well as election
Parties help with funding and party label

4. Nominations
American political parties use elections to choose party nominees
In most other countries, party leaders choose nominees
In America, each state has own set of laws regarding party nominations
America puts large burden on voters

5. Nomination for Congress and State Offices
All states use a primary election as all or part of the nomination process
Nomination process highly decentralized
Only half of regular party voters vote in a given primary
Many primary races have little or no competition

6. Primary Elections Four types of primary elections:
Closed primaries
Open primaries
Modified closed primaries
Modified open primaries
Most scholars believe type of primary affects strength of party organizations

7. Nomination for President
Presidential candidates for each party chosen at national convention
Until 1960s, party delegates to national convention chose nominee
Since 1972, delegates have been chosen by complex process that includes the primary election and party caucuses

8. Selecting Convention Delegates
Different states and parties have different procedures for selecting delegates
States follow one of two basic formats:
Presidential primary
Presidential primary/caucus
Democratic selection proportional; Republicans “winner takes all”

9. Selecting Convention Delegates
Delegates selected openly back one of the presidential candidates
Primary elections and caucuses mean nominees’ names usually known before national conventions
Early primaries and caucuses result in “front-loading”

10. Changes in the Presidential Nominating Process
Until 1968
Since 1972
Party Dominated
Candidate Dominated
Few Primaries
Many Primaries
Short Campaigns
Long Campaigns
Easy Money
Difficult Fundraising
Limited Media Coverage
Media Focused
Late Decisions
“Front-Loaded”
Open Conventions
Closed Conventions

11. Campaigning for the Nomination
A complex, drawn-out process
Invisible primary
Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary viewed as testing grounds
In 2008, narrowed field to five Republicans and seven Democrats
“Super Tuesday” resulted in one Republican and two Democrats with the most support by voters

12. Consequences of Presidential Campaigns
Races with no incumbents contested in both parties - Open Election
Incumbent presidents usually face little opposition
Iowa and New Hampshire do matter
Candidates favored most by party identifiers usually win nomination
Winners owe little to national party organization

13. Figure 9.1 From Many to Two: Presidential Hopefuls Starting and Dropping Out

14. Elections
By national law, all seats in House of Representatives and 1/3 of seats in Senate elected every two years in general election
State and local offices also on ballot
President chosen every 4th year in presidential election
Non-presidential elections congressional, mid-term, or off-year elections

15. Presidential Elections and the Electoral College
Presidency not automatically given to person with the most votes in the general election
General election selects electors who then select president
States receive one elector for each House and Senate seat
Washington, D.C. also receives three electors

16. The Electoral College
Candidate must have a majority of electoral votes (270) to win presidency
If no candidate receives majority, decision on president made by the House; Senate chooses vice president
Each state has one vote
Has only happened in 1800 and 1824

17. The Electoral College: Politics
Prior to 1860, most electors chosen by state legislatures
After 1860, electors chosen by popular vote
All states but Maine and Nebraska award electors “winner takes all”
Election in 2000 came down to Florida’s electoral votes

18. The Electoral College: Abolish It?
Over 700 proposals to abolish electoral college introduced in Congress over the years
Electoral vote system allows states to decide how electors chosen – a federal system
Many voters appear to prefer nationwide direct popular vote
Grover Cleveland (1888) and George W. Bush (2000) elected despite losing popular vote

19. Figure 9.4 The Popular Vote and the Electoral Vote

20. Support for the Electoral College
Generally, results from electoral vote system magnify popular vote results
Electoral college is a federal election system:
Allows small states to have more weight in process
Campaigns carried out via personal contact versus the large market media
Nationwide recounts not needed

21. Congressional Elections
Candidates for president listed at top of ballot, with other national, state, and local offices below
Voters can vote straight ticket or split ticket
between 15% and 30% of voters choose president from one party and congressional candidates from the other
Can result in divided government

22. Congressional Elections
Democrats basically in power until 1994
Winners from single member districts are candidates with the most votes
“First-past-the-post” elections
Districts drawn by the party in power and usually benefit dominant party
President’s party generally loses seats in mid-term elections

23. Campaigns: The Political Context
Most important structural factors in campaign planning:
Office sought
Whether incumbent or challenger
Non-incumbents more successful in open elections
More populous and/or diverse districts mean more expensive campaigns
Party preference of electorate also important

24. Financing Quality of campaign organizations a function of money
However, money alone does not ensure success
“There are four parts to any campaign. The candidate, the issues of the candidate, the campaign organization, and the money to run the campaign with. Without money, you can forget the other three.” -- former House Speaker Thomas (“Tip”) O’Neill

25. Regulating Campaign Financing
State and federal governments regulate campaign financing
Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) passed in 1971
Amendments in 1972 created Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Limits on political action committee (PAC) contributions – both soft and hard money
After court challenges, 1974 FECA governed elections for about 30 years

26. Regulating Campaign Financing
Increases in campaign contributions and spending led to Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) in 2002
Limits on contributions by individuals
Banned soft money contributions to political parties
Allowed 527 committees to spend unlimited amounts for media, with some limits
2007 Supreme Court ruling struck down ban on issue ads before elections
2010 Supreme Court ruling overturned ban on corporate contributions to candidates
Citizens United vs. FEC

27. Public Financing of Presidential Campaigns
Both FECA and BCRA provided for public financing for presidential campaigns
Subject to spending limits
Until 1996, all eligible candidates used public funds for primary elections
Since 1996, more and more candidates refusing public funds for primaries
Funding for general election follows different rules; most candidates used until 2004

28. Private Financing of Congressional Campaigns
Candidates for national office raised over $3 billion during the primary and general elections
Obama raised almost $750 million
McCain raised almost $370 million
Congressional candidates raised almost $1.4 billion

29. Future Trends in Campaign Finance
Public funding faces uncertain future
Major candidates can raise more money on their own
Contribution bundlers
Internet fundraising
BCRA limited soft money but not amounts raised for presidential campaigns

30. Strategies and Tactics
Strategies are broad approaches to campaigns
Party-centered strategies
Issue-oriented strategies
Candidate-oriented strategies
Strategies must take into account political context

31. Pollsters and Political Consultants
Well-funded campaigns buy “polling packages”
Benchmark poll
Focus groups
Trend polls
Tracking polls
Information gathered then used to tailor campaign to current political situation

32. Making the News
News coverage valuable because it’s free and seems objective to the public
Incumbents have advantage
News coverage frequently limited to “sound bites”
Horse-race metaphors limit attention to issues: bandwagons, losing ground, the front-runner, and the likely loser

33. Advertising the Candidate
Main objective for campaigns ads: name recognition
Voters may not recall name but recognize on a list, such as a ballot
Must also point out virtues of candidate
Campaign ads also sometimes attack opponent or play on emotions
Majority of ads use electronic media

34. Advertising the Candidate
Recent years’ ads tend to mention personal characteristics rather than policy preferences
Negative ads can be either attack ads or contrast ads
Media sometimes report controversial ads as news
Candidates must “approve” message in their ads; independent groups do not

35. Using the Internet Use started in 1992 with e-mail to supporters
Democrats pioneered Internet usage in election campaigns, both to raise funds and mobilize supporters
Also use social networking sites, blogs, and YouTube
Internet inexpensive way to quickly contact supporters, but TV still best way to reach average voters

36. Explaining Voting Choice
Long-term forces predispose voters to choose certain types of candidates
Party identification most important
Short-term forces associated with particular elections
Combination of candidates and policy positions on current issues

37. Party Identification
Over half of electorate decides candidate before party conventions
Early decisions generally vote based on party identification
Each candidate in 2008 received 90% of vote of self-described partisans
Independents generally favored Obama
Republicans have won more elections due to lack of Democratic voter turnout and other short-term factors

38. Figure 9.6 Effect of Party Identification on the Vote, 2008

39. Issues and Policies
Candidates exploit issues that seem to be important to voters
Incumbent’s record versus problems pointed out by challenger
Even with no incumbent, that party’s candidate may be tied to outgoing president

40. Candidates’ Attributes
Attributes important because most voters lack information about candidates’ past performance and policy stands
Stereotypical thinking may play into some voters’ decisions

41. Evaluating the Voting Choice
Party identification and candidate attributes not basis for voting according to democratic theory
Citizens should vote based on past performance and proposed policies
However, all are factors when developing statistical models to explain voting
Historically, attributes and party identification most important

42. Evaluating the Voting Choice
Recent studies show increase in policy-based voting
Relationship between party identification and voters’ positions on issues more distinct today
Alignment between party and ideology almost perfect in congressional voting

43. Campaign Effects
While campaign may not cause change in party identification, can influence enough votes to change outcome of election
Television ads main method for transmitting candidates’ message
Battleground states key
Presidential campaign in 2008 most expensive ever
No major candidate took federal matching funds in primary; only McCain in general election

44. The Presidential Debates
First televised debate in between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon
In 1976, televised debates began airing regularly
Presidential and vice-presidential debates in 2008 election led to rise in support for Obama in election polls

45. Campaigns, Elections, and Parties
Party organizations not central to elections in America
Both parties follow majoritarian model by formulating different party platforms and pursuing announced policies when in office
Weak connection between party platform and voters during campaigns and elections
Party platforms do not play major role in elections, especially those for House and Senate seats

46. Parties and the Pluralist Model
The way parties operate in America more like pluralist model
Function as two giant interest groups
Parties prefer candidates who support party platform
However, candidates operate as entrepreneurs, and may vote against party leadership
Stronger parties might be able to better coordinate government policies after elections