1. Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

2. Types of elections
Primary / Caucus
General
Designed to choose the parties nominee
Example: Romney, Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012
Types:
Closed: must declare in advance that you are a member of the party to take part in this election
About 40 states (why? )
Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on
8 states
Blanket: can vote in primaries for both parties
Washington & Alaska
Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office
Example: Obama vs. Romney
Hon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , Texas

3. Types of Elections Primary / Caucus
How to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different)
It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million)
In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who raised the most money during this stage in the process won their party’s nomination
What is a Caucus?
19 states
Why do most states hold primaries?
C’s are too time consuming!!!!
About 10% turnout

4. Primaries / Caucuses So where does that $ go? Organization
Fundraisers , Accountants , Press secretary , Scheduler , Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters , Direct mailing company & Social media specialists
Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary 
only 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their party’s nomination
G. W. Bush in 2000
Clinton in 1992
So what do you have to do to win?
Read: the excerpt from Stormy Weather
What can help a candidate gain momentum?
How long does the “invisible primary” last?
Iowa doesn’t award delegates until weeks after the caucuses, so why are the Iowa caucuses still seen as important?
Why does New Hampshire remain an indicator of who will win the eventual nomination?

5. Primaries / Caucuses Need to motivate voters to turn out for you
Primary turnout low
About 20%
This results in candidates trying to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general election
Republicans: need to appear conservative
Democrats: need to appear liberal
During the general election candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponent
Can result in “Clothespin voting”

6. Presidential Primaries / Caucuses
When voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who will attend the party’s National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate.
Much like the electoral college
The Party’s decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the party’s can change the rules prior to an election.
Democrats award delegates proportionally in all states
Republicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner take all system or a proportional system
NJ = winner take all

7. Delegates Democrats Republican
Total number of delegates: 4,339 Pledged: 3,537 Unpledged: 802
PLEDGED "PLEO" (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) DELEGATES
Based on % of democratic vote in that state in the past 3 presidential elections
UNPLEDGED "PLEO" DELEGATES (Super delegates occurred after 1980) Primarily Democratic Members of Congress, Governors, and "distinguished party leaders." 802 total.
This equals 15% of pledged delegates
Total Number of Delegates: 2,066 Pledged: 1,907 Unpledged: 159
Each state gets 6 delegates plus 3 for each member in the House
BONUS DELEGATES Each state can earn additional delegates by meeting one or more of the following requirements:
the state cast a majority of its votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election
the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, selected a Republican Governor or state legislative majorities
and / or the state holds its presidential primary election after March 15th (this is to discourage states from holding early primaries).

8. General Presidential vs. General Congressional Campaigns
More voters participate
Typically about VEP 60% turnout since 1964
More party turnover
Past 20 elections
Republicans 9 times
Democrats 11 times
Less voter turn-out, especially during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, )
Typically about 36% turnout since 1964
Historically less party turnover
(recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010)
Why less turnover?!?
Incumbency advantage
More direct connection to the voter (service to constituents)
Separate themselves from the “mess in Washington”
Sophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected
How to get on the ballot for the general election in NJ

9. Presidential Elections
Who does the public prefer?
Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

10. Presidential Election
Theme?
A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over and over and over and over and over (you get it)
Obama: Forward
Romney: We can’t afford 4 more years
If you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your record
Tone?
Positive?
Build me up
Negative?
Knock them down
Overall theme and campaign: How Barack Obama Won in Lanahan

11. Negative Campaigning
Jefferson and Adams
Daisy
Willy Horton
From Going Dirty in Lanahan: Negative Campaigning

12. Timing?
Start too early and you may go broke, too late and you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition
Targets?
Who are the undecided in this election? How will you sway them?
Use precise targeting / “micro-targeting”
New demographics(see next slide)

13. Targets: Demographics
Need to focus on these voters and mobilize them!!!!
What groups are Republicans going to have to reach out to to win the next presidential election ?
How can the Republicans appeal to women and Latinos without changing their core beliefs?

14. Presidential Elections
What types of issues will the candidate focus on?
Position: rival parties take different stances
Taxation:
Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debt
Romney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economy
Valence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a concept
Nixon: associated with a tough stance on crime
Reagan: more associated with a strong economy

15. Presidential Elections
Who is going to be your Vice President?
Need to pick someone who will appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to “balance the ticket”
Youth / Experience
Regional
Moderate / Conservative or Liberal
Unify party after bitter primary
Classic examples
Kennedy and Johnson
Reagan / G.H.W. Bush
How does Obama /Biden reflect this?
How does Romney / Ryan reflect this?
Classic Anomaly:
Clinton / Gore

16. Presidential Elections
How will you “advertise” your candidate? TV
Debates
Direct Mail
Internet

17. General Election and the Electoral College
Electoral College: 538 electors in total ( ) , need 270
Meet on the first Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December votes sent to Congress counted during a joint session
How are electors chosen?
What happens if there is a tie? (1825)
election of 1800: Jefferson v. Adams
12th amendment: Electors vote on separate ballot for pres and VP to avoid rivals holding office together
How the 2012 election broke down, various maps

18. Electoral College
Pros
Cons
Allows for both people and states to be represented : Federalism
“Extended Republic”
Need to appeal to a variety of voters, not just one faction or region
Doesn’t always reflect the will of the people
Can have faithless electors
Doesn’t reflect the idea of 1 person, 1 vote
Wyoming has one "elector" for every 177,556 people and Texas has one "elector" for about every 715,499.

20. Campaign Spending Reading:
Summarize the rules governing campaign finance
FECA
BCRA / McCain Feingold Act
Public Funding
Buckley v. Valeo
What was Buckley’s argument?
What did the Supreme Court rule?
How does this currently impact elections?

21. Campaign Finance “There are two things that are important in politics.
The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.”
—Ohio political boss and U.S. Senator Mark Hanna, 1895
Hard Money vs. Soft money:
Hard money : money given directly to a candidate’s campaign
Soft Money: money used to promotes issues
Dark money: contributions that don’t have to be disclosed (501c4s)

22. PACs and Super PACs Political Action Committees
Created in 1940s by the CIO as a way to contribute to FDR’s campaign
Organizations that have developed with the sole purpose of helping a candidate to get (re)elected to office
Individuals and organizations can contribute up to $5,000 annually to a PAC
PACs can legally contribute only $5,000 to a candidate committee per election (primary, general or special).
They can also give up to $15,000 annually to any national party committee, and $5,000 annually to any other PAC.
However, there is no limit to how much PACs can spend on advertising in support of candidates or in promotion of their agendas or beliefs.
PACs must register with and file detailed financial reports of monies raised and spent to the Federal Election Commission.

23. PACs and Super PACs separate segregated funds (SSFs)
Traditional PACs include two distinct types of political committees registered with the FEC:
separate segregated funds (SSFs)
political committees established by corporations, labor unions, membership organizations or trade associations that can only solicit contributions from individuals associated with the sponsoring organization
Microsoft PAC
No connected committees
not sponsored by or connected to any of the listed organizations and are free to solicit contributions from the general public, subject to campaign contribution limits.
National Rifle Association

24. PACs and Super PACs Super PACs
Created as a result of 3 Court Decisions
In January 2010, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to McCain-Feingold (BCRA). Ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, the court said that the government cannot prevent corporations and unions from spending unlimited money to support or criticize specific candidates.
Drawing on this decision in March 2010, a federal appeals court ruled in SpeechNow.org v. Federal Election Commission that political committees making independent expenditures—that is, spending not coordinated with or directed by a candidate’s campaign—could accept donations of unlimited size.

25. PACs and Super PACs
Super PACs may not contribute directly to candidate’s campaign or to political parties but instead spend money independent of a political campaign to influence the result.
In addition, they can raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups, and from individuals, without legal limits.
According to FEC rules, Super PACs are not allowed to cooperate, consult, or act in concert with a candidate or their agents or a political party or its agents.
They can , however, publically declare support for one candidate or another.
List of current Super PACs

26. Presidential Campaign Spending

27. Review Basics Can do Can’t do PACs (1940s) NRA
Hard money
Only purpose is to get a candidate elected
Donate directly to a candidate(s)
Donate directly to a campaign. Must disclose donors
Endorse a candidate
Accept more than $5,000 in individual donations , can’t donate more than $5,000 to an individual candidate
Super PACs (2010)
Restore our Future
Soft Money
Designed to promote a candidate and/or specific issues during an election
Accept unlimited donations from individuals and /or labor unions and corps., endorse a specific candidate , support issues, must disclose donors
Donate to or work with an individual candidate or a political party
527s
Emily’s List
Citizens United
Soft money
Only purpose is to promote issues during an election, turning into Super-PACs
Accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations (as a result of citizens), support an issue , must disclose donors
actually support a candidate : basically can’t say “vote for x”
donate to a candidate
501 (c) (4) s
Crossroads gps , NAACP
Soft money / Dark Money
Social welfare organization that can use some of its funds to promote issues
Accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations , support an issue , don’t need to disclose donors
spend more than 50% of organizations wealth on “educating” people on issues during a campaign
Review

28. Rules governing campaign finance
FECA (1972):
Imposed contribution limits to a candidates campaign
Limited campaign expenditures
Need to disclose donor information
Created public financing
Created Federal Election Commission

29. Buckley v. Valeo: testing constitutionality of FECA
Unconstitutional
Limits on direct contributions to candidates
Optional public financing
Disclosing contributions
Creation of FEC
Limits on candidates expenditures (spending)
Except if you accept public funding

30. BRCA / McCain –Feingold (2002)
Labor Unions and corporations can’t fund ads, limits on attack ads prior to elections
Limits on how much $ could be given to PACs and how much PACs could give to candidates and political parties

31. Citizens United and the 2012 Election: A Case Study
Basic information about Citizens United
What changes did Citizens United make to campaign finance regulation?
Do you agree or disagree with this decision? Why?
Impact of Citizens on 2012 election
Write a 1 paragraph reaction to this article.

32. Citizens United Thoughts on Citizens ruling? 5-4 ruling by SCOTUS
Corporations and Labor Unions are allowed to give unlimited monetary contributions to outside spending groups (527s, 501c4s), the ruling was based on the 1st amendment rights of these organizations (freedom of political speech)
Labor Unions and Corporations can use general funds to create ads to support candidates or issues
Cannot directly donate to a candidate
No restrictions on when negative ads funded by outside groups can air on TV
Was 30 days before a primary, 60 days before a general election
Thoughts on Citizens ruling?

33. Frontline: Big Sky, Big Money
Day 1:
How much money has been spent on ads in the Senate race in Montana? What % has come from outside groups? Do you think that this statistic matters?( be specific)
How do 501 c4s and Super PACs differ?
Why may an individual / corporation / labor union rather contribute to a 501 c4?
Define “magic words”, give a few examples.
link to video

34. Big Sky, Big Money
Day 2:
Jim Bopp, Jr. contends that the anonymity that 501c4s provide donors is beneficial to the political process. Do you agree or disagree? Why?
In the case of Montana v. WTP:
What are the issues?
How does the Montana Supreme Court rule?
Ultimately how does SCOTUS rule?
After viewing the film answer the following question in 5-8 sentences citing specific examples from the film
Does having less restrictions on 501c4s impede or enhance our electoral process?

35. Questions to consider when reflecting on campaign finance regulations
Should there be any limits on what candidates and political parties can spend during a campaign (hard money)?
Should there be any limits on what independent (outside ) expenditure groups (501c4s, 527s, Super PACs) can spend (soft money) ?
Citizens United declared that corporations and labor unions have the same rights to political free speech as individuals. Do you agree?
Can you just allow corporations or labor unions to have political personhood?
Should there be any media restrictions on the number and/or frequency of ads any entity can produce?
Should 501c4s have to disclose donors?
Should 527s, 501c4s, and Super PACS be able to coordinate with candidates?
Do these groups actually allow for more groups (factions) to be represented? (Would Madison approve?)
Do you think these groups may allow for 3rd party candidates to be viable candidates for office?

36. Campaign Finance: Public Funding
The Federal Election Commission began public funding in 1976.
Eligible Presidential candidates use federal funds in their primary and general election campaigns, and the major parties used public funds to pay for their nominating conventions.
Candidates are eligible to get $20 mil from the government and can spend up to $50,000 of their own $, the total limit for 2012 was $91.5 million
A candidate could raise $70 million and spend that as well.
Where does the $ come from?
The U.S. Treasury makes the actual payments from the Presidential Election Campaign Fund.
This fund consists of dollars voluntarily checked off by taxpayers on their federal income tax returns.
To be eligible the candidate:
Must be a member of a political party
Must show broad based support by raising at least $5,000 in at least 20 states (100,000)

37. Congressional Elections
All 435 House seats are up for election every 2 years (even numbered years)
1/3 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election every 2 years (even numbered years)
This is to avoid total turnover of the Senate
Mature, experienced body to temper the whims of the House
Federalism
Republic, not a democracy 

38. House Elections
It is up to Congress to decide how many representatives each state will have
Must have at least 1
House was originally set at 65 members, last set at 435 in 1911 and decided to keep that as the fixed number
States may have seats added or subtracted every 10 years based on the results of the census
Since the 1950s states in the Sun belt have been adding seats, states in the rust belt have lost seats
When states add or subtract seats they have to redraw their districts.
Malapportionament: unequal representation in districts (more on this later
Gerrymandering: drawing district lines to benefit one political party

40. When creating a district these are the things that you must do!!!
Population Equality - Each election district must have the same number of constituents. This generally ranges between 640, ,000 people. At the federal level, courts tend to enforce the population equality standard very strictly.
• Contiguity - Each district must be one continuous shape. No "land islands" are allowed. U.S. courts always enforce the principle of contiguity.
• Compactness - Generally speaking, districts need to be drawn in compact shapes. Extremely jagged edges and skinny extensions are features that are the hallmarks of gerrymandered districts. Because compactness is a traditional standard about which there is no generally accepted method of measurement, the courts in most states do not usually enforce the compactness principle in practice.

41. Gerrymandering
Term first used in 1812 to reflect the redrawing of districts in Massachusetts overseen by then Gov. Elbridge Gerry
They were drawn to favor the Democratic-Republican Party
Gerry + Salamander = gerrymander 

42. Modern Examples

43. Gerrymandering
Packing: when you try to fill a district with as many members of the same party as possible
may be done by 1 political party that controls the process, or by bipartisan commissions to keep incumbency advantages
Cracking: when you try to break the influence of one party or minority group in an area by dividing that area between different districts
Done when 1 political party wants to maintain control

45.
What are kidnapping and hijacking?

46. Hijacking: If there's an incumbent you don't like, you can make their re-election difficult by putting them in a district with another incumbent of the same party to contend with. You can force a costly primary battle, weakening your likely opponent before general election.
Kidnapping: Moving an incumbents house into another district where they have little name recognition, making it much more difficult for them to win (taking them from their base)

47. Cracking a very liberal voting area in Ohio
Packing districts to ensure incumbency advantage
Land island, not allowed!!!!
Packing African Americans into 1 district

48. Getting elected to Congress
Most important factors in getting a candidate elected
Party, candidate characteristics, incumbency advantage and issues
Candidate Characteristics:
Race, ethnicity, religion, gender, geography, and social background all matter
In general voters prefer candidates that are closer to themselves in these categories
Incumbency advantage
: 90% of incumbents in the House have sought re-election and won!!!!!!!!!
2012: 23 incumbents lost house seats
Remember 435 were up for election

49. % of Representatives defeated while seeking re-election

50. % of candidates not seeking re-election

51. Baker v. Carr and other S.C. cases impacting redistricting
Malapportionment (unequal population in districts) violates the Equal protection clause of the 14th amendment
All citizens must be treated equally and without bias
Federal courts can intervene in the redistricting process, after reapportionment if needed
One person , One Vote (districts need to make pop, in districts as close to equal as possible)
This ruling narrowly applied to state legislatures due to the nature of the case
Challenging state assembly districts in Tennessee
Wesbury v. Sanders:
One Man , one vote applies to House districts, as well as state legislatures
Challenged the malapportionment of Georgia’s house districts
Causes a whole bunch of redistricting!!!!!

52. Why do we need redistricting? Hypothetical situation
867,000
642,000
336,000
644,000
641,000
796,000
769,000
642,000
2001
2010

53. Have fun packing, cracking, kidnapping, hijacking!!!!!!!!
Re-districting Game
Have fun packing, cracking, kidnapping, hijacking!!!!!!!!

54. Review http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6avsQKngNk