1. Climate and Air Quality: Investigating the Impacts of Changing Landscapes Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Seminar, Cornell University April 10, 2013 Colette L. Heald Amos P.K. Tai, Ashley R. Berg, Maria Val Martin

2. Atmospheric Composition is Linked to Major Environmental Issues AIR QUALITY / HEALTH VISIBILITY ACID RAIN CROP DAMAGE OZONE LAYER TOXIC ACCUMULATION CLIMATE FERTILIZATION

3. Air Pollution is a Serious and Growing Public Health Issue Number of people living in counties with air pollutant concentrations above EPA Air Quality Standards in 2008 Fine particulate matter (complex chemical composition) Global premature deaths from environmental risk [OECD, 2012] Fine particulate matter Currently over 125 million Americans experience “unhealthy” air. By 2030 AQ surpasses unsafe water as the leading environmental cause of premature deaths.

4. Reminders from around the World of Linkages Between Air Pollution and Climate Change or Emissions Summer 2010 Fires in Russia 55,000+ estimated deaths from smog and heatwave Beijing “Airpocalypse” (Winter 2013) Clear DayFebruary 27, 2013 PM concentrations sky rocket. Remain high for several weeks. US Embassy tweets report concentrations “beyond index” above 700 µg/m 3 (EPA daily standard is 35 µg/m 3 ).

5. EMISSIONS (natural & anthropogenic) CLIMATE LAND USE CHANGE (natural & anthropogenic) Atmospheric Composition (Air Quality)

6. [Tai et al., submitted] Climate Change Alone Degrades Mean Air Quality over Continental Regions: The So-Called “Climate Penalty” 2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone due to climate change alone Ozone is predicted to increase over polluted continental regions (meteorological factors + natural emission changes) and decrease over the ocean (due to enhanced water vapour) as predicted by Wu et al. [2008] and others. Offsets benefits from emissions control. GISS+GEOS-Chem

7. 0 1 2 3 Normalized isoprene emission CO 2 concentration (ppmv) 400 800 1200 A Critical Factor in the “Climate Penalty”: Isoprene Emissions O3O3 Driver for many predictions of increasing ozone, organic aerosol and methane increases [eg. Sanderson et al., 2003; Heald et al., 2008; Shindell et al., 2007] CO 2 inhibition implies that isoprene emissions may stay ~ constant [Heald et al., 2009]. Need to revise future air quality projections! Present-day level 2050 level [Possell & Hewitt 2011] Future: NPP ↑, Temperature↑ = Isoprene ↑ BUT CO 2 inhibits Isoprene Emission!

8. CO 2 Inhibition of Isoprene Emissions Reduces Ozone Sensitivity to Climate Change Without CO 2 effect With CO 2 effect With minus without 2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone due to climate change alone In major populated regions, projected ozone increase due to climate change (max +6 ppbv) is reduced by >50% (to max +3 ppbv) due to CO 2 inhibition of isoprene emission. [Tai et al., submitted]

9. As a Result, Land Use Change and Climate ~Equal Players in Determining Ozone Air Quality Land use change effect 2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone Climate change effect 2000-to-2050 change in cropland fraction (IPCC A1B) Land use change can offset or reverse in sign the effect of climate change on ozone air quality. Air quality control strategies needs to consider all three of emissions, land use change and climate. [Tai et al., submitted]

10. Climate and Air Quality Impacts on Global Crop Productivity? f(temperature)f(O 3 concentration) f(cropland area) Relative Yield [Mills et al. 2007] Wheat Ozone exposure (ppm-hour) T max T mean T high T base Day since 1 June °C°C based on Butler and Huybers [2013] tolerant sensitive Snap peas damage due to O 3 exposure)Illinois heatwave summer 2012

11. Relative Impacts of Climate Change and Ozone Pollution on Wheat Production 2000 global wheat production (10 3 ton/grid cell) Under IPCC AR5 RCP8.5, using CESM ozone and climate [Tai et al. in prep] 2050 change due to ozone pollution2050 combined production change 2050 change due to climate change Large sensitivity in future crop productivity to ozone pollution & climate change (± 25% regionally). Needs to be included along-side land use change and farming practices when considering 21 st century food security.

12. Bark Beetle Infestation in Western North America Worst beetle outbreak in recorded history: peaked in BC in 2007 and in the Western US in 2009 [Kurz et al., 2008] Over 100,000 km 2 of forest killed, continued expansion. Impacts: carbon cycling, fire susceptibility. What about air quality?

13. VOCs ↓ Mortality Effect ↑ Attack Effect VOCs? O3O3 Bark Beetles Perturbing Monoterpene Emissions Very few quantitative studies have been done Amin et al. (2012; 2013) measure emissions from Lodgepole pine (and spruce) under attack by mountain pine beetle, see significant enhancements of some emissions.

14. Estimated Impacts on Monoterpene Emissions Largest impact of MPB on monoterpene emissions in British Columbia in 2004 (increase up to 70%) and in 2008 in US (increase up to 104%). Mortality Effect Mortality Effect + Attack Effect VEGETATION DISTRIBUTIONS (CLM4) ANNUAL MORTALITY (Meddens et al., 2012) EXPERIMENTAL VOC INCREASES (Amin et al., 2012) VOC EMISSIONS IN CLM4 (MEGAN2.1) (Guenther et al., 2012) β-pinene, β-phellandrene, 3-carene, P-cymene 2004 2008

15. Estimated Impacts on Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation [Berg et al., 2013] Mortality Effect Mortality Effect + Attack Effect 2004 2008 VEGETATION DISTRIBUTIONS (CLM4) ANNUAL MORTALITY (Meddens et al., 2012) EXPERIMENTAL VOC INCREASES (Amin et al., 2012) VOC EMISSIONS IN CLM4 (MEGAN2.1) (Guenther et al., 2012) CHAMBER SOA YIELDS (6-55%) (Lee et al., 2006) More muted impact on SOA (~30-40% max increases) but also more regional. Dependent on very uncertain species- variable response: scenario using spruce data shows up to doubling of SOA (1 µgm -3 increase). This is comparable to the estimate of “natural” aerosol background  implications for achieving EPA Regional Haze Rule Evidence of importance of land use change in air quality.

16. September 11, 2005 BEFORE September 28, 2011 AFTER 5 km Grand Lake, CO High Park fire in Colorado (June 2012) burned in area of 70% beetle-killed trees Bark Beetle Kill in Western US Raising Fire Susceptibility? (links between climate change, land use and air quality)

17. 2012: Most Destructive Fires in Colorado History, with Air Quality Implications High Park Fire (June 2012) Waldo Canyon Fire (July 2012) Many local exceedances of daily PM 2.5 standard (over 100 µg/m 3 measured in Fort Collins!) How often do these events occur? PM 2.5 at Fort Collins (near High Park Fire)

18. Decadal Satellite Record Shows Large Aerosol Anomalies Associated with Both Local and Transported Smoke June 2002 MODIS Terra AOD anomalies August 2012 Hayman Fire High Park and Waldo Fires AZ Wallow Fire (2011) MT, WY, ID, WA Fires AZ, CA Fires CA Station Fire (2009)

19. Vertical Distribution of Wildfire Smoke Smoke heights measured by MISR satellite for High Park Fire Smoke plumes Smoke clouds Smoke plumes (esp for energetic fires) are injected aloft. But smoke clouds also observed near surface. Air quality impacts depend on whether aerosol reaches surface [val Martin et al., submitted] CALIOP aerosol profile over Colorado

20. Future Smoke Impacts on PM 2000 2050 Increased area burned results in ~150% increase in BC and OC fire emissions Projected annual total biomass burned [Yue et al, submitted] Future PM 2.5 may stay constant over western US due to increased fire activity! PM2.5 PM2.5 Fires [val Martin et al., in prep] [Westerling et al, 2007]

21. A Final Word on Land Use Change: Natural Land Use Change is Highly Uncertain Same land model (CLM) driven by 8 different climate projections  Very sensitive to precip [Alo and Wang, 2008]  LAI (2100-2000) [mm]

22. CONCLUSIONS Funding Acknowledgements: The ozone “climate penalty” is not as severe as previously suggested. Land use change and climate change are equally important in determining near-term air quality (2050). Initial results suggest that both ozone pollution and climate change can substantially impact crop production by 2050. Pine beetle infestation in W North America over the last decade estimated to be responsible for up to 40% increases in SOA. Large uncertainties in emissions response. Smoke from wildfires in the W. US results in both local and regional air quality degradation. Increasing wildfire activity may cancel out emissions control benefits for PM air quality in the W. US. Land use change is the most challenging driver of atmospheric composition to predict, and is a key uncertainty in chemistry- climate projections.