1. Wind Energy Technology Dept. Sandia National Laboratories
Herb Sutherland
Wind Energy Technology Dept.
Sandia National Laboratories
Start with Review of Current Wind Industry and Market and where we think Wind Energy is headed
Talk a little of objectives and goals of the DoE Wind Program
In particular, emphasize land-based low-wind-speed turbines – which are applicable to NM
Discuss Sandia”s Activities to Achieve these Goals
page 1

2. Current Wind Industry Market
Size MW
Towers: m
Blades: 34-50m
Weight: t
Costs
System < $3/lb
Blades < $5/lb
~ $0.75/Watt
$ /kWh
With Balance of Station Costs – about $ 1 million for a 1 MW turbine
page 2

3. Wind Cost of Energy is Falling
U.S. Cumulative Capacity (MW)
Cost of Energy (cents/kWh*)
Energy Recovery – 3 to 4 months
*Year 2000 dollars
Increased Turbine Size - R&D Advances - Manufacturing Improvements
page 3

4. Some Machines Currently on the Market
These four suppliers account for 75% of the world market
Gamesa (Spain)
Vestas – NEG Micon
(Denmark)
Siemens also purchased Westinghouse in US: Siemens/Westinghouse
Each of the big four have revenues of over one billon € per year.
GE (US)
No. 5
Bonus/Siemens
(Denmark/Germany)
Enercon (Germany)
page 4

5. Size of the Global Market
World Market growing currently at about 10% per year.
2.5 GW in 1992
40 GW in 2004
page 5

6. Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide*
Rest of World
Actual
Projected
North America
Europe
Jan 2004 Cumulative MW*
Rest of World =
North America = 6,691
Europe = 28,706
MW Installed
Installed Capacity growing at approximately 30% per year
2.5 GW in 1992
40 GW in 2004
75% current capacity in Europe: produces approximately 2.4% of EU Energy Consumption
EU Targets:
12 % by 2010
22 % by 2020
* Updated March 2004
Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003
AWEA/EWEA Press Release 3/3/03
EWEA press release 10/3/04
page 6

7. Worry over penetration — Old Wives Tale
Penetration Levels
20% in Denmark
5% in Germany & Spain
Worry over penetration — Old Wives Tale
Denmark – 20 % of Electrical Comsumption
Region in Germany: Bundesland Schleswig-Holstein – 27 %
Region in Spain: Navarre – 50 %
page 7

8. RESOURCE New Mexico New Mexico is 12th in Wind Potential
Ref.: Elliott, et al, “An Assessment of the Available Windy Land Area and Wind Energy
Potential in the Contiguous United States,” August 1991, PNL-7789
page 8

9. NM Wind Farms 204 MW PNM Wind Energy Center 80 MW Caprock Wind Ranch
House, NM
PNM
80 MW Caprock Wind Ranch
Quay county, NM
Cielo Wind Power/Xcel
120 MW San Juan Mesa
Elida, NM
Padoma Wind Power/Xcel
For every 10 MW installed, approximately one full time employee
page 9

10. DOE Wind Energy Program 2002 Plan
Class 6 (High Energy) Sites
Technology Viability
Technology Application
Class 4 (Good) Sites
Low Wind Speed Technology
Distributed Wind Technology
Systems Integration
Technology Acceptance
Primary Program Activities:
Public/private partnerships
Primary Program Activities:
Public/private partnerships
Primary Program Activities:
Models
Ancillary costs
Utility rules
Grid capability
Primary Program Activities:
State outreach
Federal loads
Rural wind development
Native Americans
Power partnerships
Load Centers
Goal A
By 2012, COE from large systems in Class 4 winds 3 cents/kWh onshore or 5 cents/kWh offshore (Program Strategic Performance Goal)
Goal B
By 2007, COE from distributed wind systems cents/kWh in Class 3
Goal C
By 2012, complete program activities for grid access, operating rules, ancillary service tariffs, and transmission expansion plans that support industry’s 2020 capacity goal.
Goal D
By 2010, 100 MW installed in at least 16 states.
Program Goals
DOE objective:
Open the green areas to profitable wind energy generation
CLASS 3 Wind Speed – 6.4 to 7.0 m/s at 50 m
CLASS 4 Wind Speed – 7.0 to 7.5 m/s at 50 m
CLASS 5 Wind Speed – 7.5 to 8.0 m/s at 50 m
7.0 m/s = 15.7 mph
Supporting Research and Testing
Supporting Engineering and Analysis
Primary Program Activities:
Enabling research
Design Review and Analysis
Testing Support
Primary Program Activities:
Standards and certification
Field verification test support
Technical issues analysis and communications
Innovative technology development
page 10

11. EIA/AEO 2001 Renewables Cases
Impact of Cost Goals 10 20 30 40 50 60
2005
2010
2015
2020 GW
Competitive Class 4 Technology*
*Growth trajectory from NEMS using AEO 2001 assumptions with 3 cent/Class4/2007 technology
EIA/AEO 2001 Renewables Cases
Opportunity
2001
Reference
High Renewables
Current Class 4 cost:
4.3 cents/kWh
Class 4 goal (2012):
3.0 cents/kWh
Baseline (15 GW in 2020)
No technology breakthrough
Class 6 Plateau
Program Goal: 3 cents/kWh Class 4 COE in 2012
Expands resource base 20-fold
Reduces average distance to load 5-fold
35 GW additional opportunity by 2020
page 11

12. European Goal – 10 GW offshore British Islands
Offshore Wind
US DOE Program Goal: 5 cents/kWh, Shallow Water Offshore in the year 2012
European Goal – 10 GW offshore
British Islands
Enormous resource
1.4 GW in the planning stages
US has limited shallow resource
US Early Interest:
Cape Cod (Cape Wind)
Long Island (LIPA)
Deep Water Research
Base and foundation costs
Floating structures
Approximately 50 % of Electrical Consumption is on the Coasts
17+ Governmental Agencies Oversee the Coastal Waters
Formidable Permitting Task
Current Estimate – 3 years to Complete
Primary – Corp. of Engineers
Moving Primary Responsibility to
Dept. of Interior (Energy Bill)
page 12

13. How Do We Get to Low-Cost, Low-Wind-Speed Technology?
(Thresher: 5/02)
Technology Improvements
Estimated COE Improvement
Larger-scale 2 - 5MW - (rotors up to 120m) 0%  5%
Advanced rotors and controls –
(flexible, low-solidity, higher speed, hybrid carbon-glass -15%  7%
and advanced and innovative designs)
Advanced drive train concepts -
(Hybrid drive trains with low-speed PM generators and -10%  7%
other innovative designs including reduced cost PE)
New tower concepts - (taller, modular, field assembled,
load feedback control) %  5%
Improved availability and reduced losses - (better controls, -5%  3%
siting and improved availability)
Manufacturing improvements - (new manufacturing methods, -7%  3%
volume production and learning effects)
Region and site tailored designs (tailoring of larger 100MW -5%  2%
wind farm turbine designs to unique sites)
-44%  32%
page 13

14. Wind Turbine Systems Conventional Drive Train Direct Drive System Hub
Gear Box
Highest Potential for Reducing the Cost of Energy: Eliminate the Gear Box
Direct Drive System
Pitch System
Yaw System
Generator
Tower
Blade
page 14

15. How Do We Get to Low-Cost, Low-Wind-Speed Technology?
(Thresher: 5/02)
Technology Improvements
Estimated COE Improvement
Larger-scale 2 - 5MW - (rotors up to 120m) 0%  5%
Advanced rotors and controls –
(flexible, low-solidity, higher speed, hybrid carbon-glass -15%  7%
and advanced and innovative designs)
Advanced drive train concepts -
(Hybrid drive trains with low-speed PM generators and -10%  7%
other innovative designs including reduced cost PE)
New tower concepts - (taller, modular, field assembled,
load feedback control) %  5%
Improved availability and reduced losses - (better controls, -5%  3%
siting and improved availability)
Manufacturing improvements - (new manufacturing methods, -7%  3%
volume production and learning effects)
Region and site tailored designs (tailoring of larger 100MW -5%  2%
wind farm turbine designs to unique sites)
-44%  32%
page 15

16. Sandia Wind Energy Research Primary Responsibility – Blades
Blades are the only uniquely wind-turbine component
Blades produce all the energy
Blades produce all the system loads
Sandia Research Elements
Advanced Blade Control – both active and passive (adaptive blade)
Materials
Manufacturing
Analysis Tools
Validation Testing & NDI
Field Testing and Instrumentation
Reliability
page 16

17. Blades Are Getting Bigger
50.5 Meter Blade (GE 3.6 MW turbine)
61 m blades are currently being prototyped
Historical Prospective:
Blades sizes increases at approximately 10 % per year—doubles approximately every 7 years
Blade Size over Time
page 17

18. Comparison of Weight Trends WindStats Data & Preliminary Designs
First Line – 70’s and 80’s Technology
Second Line 90’s Technology
SAND , Innovative Design Approaches for Large Wind Turbine Blades; Final Report, TPI
page 18

19. New Materials: New Issues
Carbon fiber forms
Cost vs. Performance
Tow Size
Pre-preg vs. fabrics
Processing and fiber straightness
Carbon/Glass hybrids
Carbon-to-Glass Transitions
Resin systems
page 19

20. Design Tools: Validation and Testing
Design, analyze, fabricate, and test composite material structures to develop new approaches to design and analysis of blades
page 20

21. Sandia Partners in Blade Manufacturing
TPI Composites
TPI and Mitsubishi have a joint venture – Vienteck in Juarez, Mexico
Manufacturing blades for 1-2 MW Mitsubishi machines
40m long blade now being tested
TPI patented SCRIMP® technology
“maquiladora” -- 6 separate manufacturing lines – each producing a blade a day
Currently building 30m blades
Ready to move 45 m blades
page 21

22. Design Studies identify the inner-span for thicker airfoils
A thicker airfoil opens up new manufacturing opportunities
Constant thickness spar cap
Pre-manufactured spars (e.g., Pultrusion)
Weights are reduced substantially without other (material) changes
Traditional Design
Thicker Airfoils
Root
Tip
Blade Thickness
Blade Station
page 22

23. Examples of Flatback Airfoils
Previous extent of flat trailing edges on blades
New concepts in flatback airfoils
page 23

24. Micro-tab Assembly & Motion
Adaptive Blades
Passive
Bend-Twist Coupling
Active
Micro-tab Assembly & Motion
page 24

25. Field Testing Site Monitoring and Turbine Loads Research
ATLAS System Layout
page 25

26. Wind Energy: Questions
page 26

27. Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide*
Rest of World
Actual
Projected
North America
Europe
Jan 2004 Cumulative MW*
Rest of World =
North America = 6,691
Europe = 28,706
MW Installed
* Updated March 2004
Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003
AWEA/EWEA Press Release 3/3/03
EWEA press release 10/3/04
page 27

28. Blade Size over Time 50+ meter 34 meter 23 meter 20 meter 12 meter
page 28

29. 50.5 Meter Blade (GE 3.6 MW turbine)
page 29

30. Offshore Wind Development
Germany and Denmark have limited land area and extensive, shallow, windy, offshore area
The UK has onshore NIMBY and is hoping to go immediately offshore
The US East Coast is the largest electrical load – the best wind resources are offshore
Great Lakes offer a similar opportunity
Much of the US opportunity is in deeper water (>50m)
Offshore Projection
page 30

31. Wind Power Basics
Wind Power output is proportional to wind speed cubed.
Effectively, the maximum drag-driven power coefficient is 0.15 because only the down-wind motion of the blade produces power
Lift-driven machines are only limited by the Betz Limit (the maximum energy extraction coefficient)
page 31

32. Turbine Power Basics Energy vs. Wind Speed Power vs. Wind Speed
15 mph (6.8 m/s) average wind speed
page 32

33. Wind Turbine Manufacturers
page 33

34. Horn’s Reef, Denmark
page 34

35. Why Move Offshore? Higher-quality wind resources Economies of scale
Reduced turbulence
Increased wind speed
Economies of scale
Avoid logistical constraints on turbine size
Proximity to loads
Many demand centers are near the coast
Increased transmission options
Access to less heavily loaded lines
Potential for reducing land use and aesthetic concerns
17+ Governmental Agencies Oversee the Coastal Waters
Formidable Permitting Task
Current Estimate – 3 years to Complete
Primary – Corp. of Engineers
Moving Primary Responsibility to
Dept. of Interior (Energy Bill)
page 35

36. Horns Rev Offshore Wind Farm North Sea: Off Danish Coast
Wind turbine type Vestas V MW
Total wind farm output MW (80 turbines)
Expected annual production 600,000,000 kWh
Rotor diameter 80 m
Hub height m
Mean wind speed (62 m) m/s
Water depth m
Distance from land km
Wind farm area 20 km2
Total project costs DKK 2 billion
(EUR 270 million)
45 Environmental Studies Completed for Permitting Process
Weight, blade tonnes
Weight, nacelle 79 tonnes
Weight, tower tonnes
Weight, foundation tonnes
Total weight per wind turbine tonnes
Cut-in wind speed 4 m/s
Full power output from 13 m/s
Cut-out wind speed 25 m/s
Distance between wind turbines 560 m
page 36

37. Northeastern U.S. Offshore Potential
page 37

38. Wind Resource West Coast of the US
page 38

39. Reverse Evolution…
page 39

40. GE Wind Energy 3.6 MW Turbines
page 40