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Modeling Risky Decision-Making Annie Tang, Ethan Levine, Brandon Ho, Jonathan Winkle, Ph.D., Emma Wu Dowd, Ph.D. Self-Report Questionnaires: Personality.

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Presentation on theme: "Modeling Risky Decision-Making Annie Tang, Ethan Levine, Brandon Ho, Jonathan Winkle, Ph.D., Emma Wu Dowd, Ph.D. Self-Report Questionnaires: Personality."— Presentation transcript:

1 Modeling Risky Decision-Making Annie Tang, Ethan Levine, Brandon Ho, Jonathan Winkle, Ph.D., Emma Wu Dowd, Ph.D. Self-Report Questionnaires: Personality measures of preference/aversion to risk; 10 different scales with corresponding questions 10 scales: Weber, Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI), Barrett Impulsiveness, Maximization (MAX), Temperament Character Inventory (TCI), Helping-Orientation Questionnaire (HOQ), Regret, Brief Sensation Seeking (BSS), Behavioral Inhibition/Behavioral Approach (BIS/BAS), Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI) Demographic Surveys: Age, gender, ethnicity, etc. Risk Premium: Percent change in the expected value of the risky or ambiguous decision and that of the certain decision i.e. how much higher expected value of risky or ambiguous bet must be in order to choose that bet over the certain bet 0 = risk neutral | + = risk averse | - = risk seeking Risky Certain Trial 1: Trial n:... Y  X Loss Aversion: Percent change in the potential gain of an always 50/50 gamble; possible to lose money i.e. how much higher potential gain must be in order to take gamble

2 Machine Learning Analysis (Risk Premium) Other Machine Learning Classifiers Used: Logistic Regression Support Vector Machine (SVM) Naïve Bayes Classification Trees & Random Forest k- nearest neighbors Decision Tree Regression (Loss Aversion) LDA ClassificationFullReducedDifference Classification Rate0.6120.698+8.6% True Negative0.7270.717-1.0% True Positive0.6120.689+7.7% As supported by existing literature, women were found to be more loss averse than men.

3 How do people make decisions in the face of uncertainty? RiskPremium ~ WeberC2 + WeberD2 + WeberE2 + REI.ET + TCI.NS Weber Scale: assesses risk­taking in five content domains: financial decisions, health/safety, recreational, ethical, and social decisions Rational Experiential Inventory: measures two independent processing modes, intuitive­experiential and analytical­rational thinking Temperament Character Inventory: personality survey that looks at both temperament and character *70% classification rate with LDA model based on 5 features

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