1. Global Food (In)Security and Brazilian Potential Ladislau Martin-Neto R&D Executive Director Embrapa Brazil The International Economic Forum of The Americas Palm Beach Strategic Forum April, 8, 2014

2. Ag Production World Ranking – 2013/14 Around 79% of the Brazilian food production is consumed domestically and 21% is shipped to over 180 foreign markets 1112233445 1111121245 AGRIBUSINESS SURPLUS OF TRADE BALANCE IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Brazil – Agriculture Production Perspective 2010-30, (% INCREASE IN MILLIONS - TONNES ) Product20102030 Cotton3.84.9 Rice12.617.7 Coffee2.84.5 Sugar cane7121.050 Beans (Phaseolus)3.44.3 Product20102030 Cassava27.131.5 Maize55.676.7 Soybean67.8100.9 Sorghum2.13.4 Wheat6.07.2 Meat (eq. carcass)9.313.9 Brazil- Growth of Agricultural Productivity Grains - (1976/2011)

3. Source: Ministry of Agrarian Development Photo: Cláudio Morões »Cassava.......87% »Milk...............58% »Beans.............70% »Beef..........30% »Poultry.....50% »Corn........46% »Pork......59% »Rice.........34% Contribution of Small-holder Farmers Brazilian Agriculture »Farming area: 106.8 million hectares »12 million producers (1/3 of them are women) »24% of agricultural area »84% of land owners in Brazil Brazilian Support to Small-holder Farmers Creation of additional Ministry of Agrarian Development, in 2000 (maintained original Ministry of Agriculture) Specific Annual Program to finance small farms production However data of 2006 (IBGE): 4.4 million of farmers declared income 0.5 million farmers (11%) – 87 % of production value 3.9 million farmers (89%)- 13% of production value (many of them in poverty conditions) So an important challenge remains to improve conditions to small-holder farmers (creation of new Rural Extension Agency this year by Brazilian Governor)

4. Renewable Energy in Brazil Total area850 M ha Amazonian and other preservation areas 500 M ha Potential of Agricultural Land 350 M ha Today- Grains and perennial 60 M ha (sugarcane- 8 M ha; reforestation- 6 M ha Pasture-190 M ha Areas to be cultivated 100 M ha 87% of sugarcane Production (4 million ha – ethanol production) CERRADO (SAVANNAH - 200 Mi ha) AMAZONAMAZON SEMI-ARID SUBTROPICAL Land-Use in Brazil PROTECTED

5. In the future, increasing fraction of agricultural production will have to be mobilized via trade since the distribution of the world population by region does not follow the distribution of arable land Global Arable Areas and Population - 2009

6. Water stress indicator (WSI) in major basins Irrigation- consumption of 70% of world water Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture by 2080 Source: based on Cline, W. R. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Washington D.C.: Peterson Institute Available at: http://www.unep.org/geo/pdfs/geo5/GEO5_report_full_en.pdf - The poorest areas of the globe are the most challenging to agriculture - Intense biotic (pests) and abiotic (drought, flood, soil acidity, low nutrients, etc) stresses. All these challenges will be intensified with the global climatic changes. - The poorest areas of the globe are the most challenging to agriculture - Intense biotic (pests) and abiotic (drought, flood, soil acidity, low nutrients, etc) stresses. All these challenges will be intensified with the global climatic changes. Fonte: FAO - 2004 Milhões de ha Cropped areas in the world Pastùreland and no utilized areas Agriculture Million ha SOURCE: FAO 2004 Brazil USA Russia India China Australia Canada ArgentinaIndonesia Colombia Venezuela France

7. Preventive Plant Breeding Development of plant varieties resistant to high risk quarantine pests and pathogens Preventive Plant Breeding Program designed to develop, in advance, genetic stocks of different crops which are resistant to quarantine organisms, prior to their entrance in the country. ANGOLA Soybean Red Leaf Blotch Phoma glycinicola PANAMA Rice Bacterial Blight Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae Rice Panicle Blight Burkholderia glumae CHILE Common Bean Halo Blight Pseudomonas savastanoi pv. phaseolicola Preventive Breeding International Partners PORTUGAL Maize Late Wilt of Corn Harpophora maydis BRAZIL Soybean Red Leaf Blotch Phoma glycinicola UNITED STATES soybean rust 2013 – poliphagous larvae Helicoverpa armigera caused by Helicoverpa armigera Subtotal 2013:>US$4.6 billions

8. 88 Field Experiment 2013/2014 Season Soybean Areb- transgenic  40°C (104 °F) - 49 days – rainfall 44 mm  Typical rainfall season 300 mm conventional Soybean Experimental Field Fonte: MAPA, 2010 – Fotos de Votorantin Metais Land use intensification Low Carbon Emission Agriculture Program Integrated system- crop-livestock-forest

9. Structuring Projects in Africa Nacala corridor Brazil 13º S 17º S Lichinga Nampula  Similar biomes  Similar challenges  New learning opportunities  A common vision for the future Pro-Savannah Project - Mozambique Sharing Knowledge of Tropical Agriculture

10. ladislau.martin@embrapa.br www.embrapa.br Thank you “…But the availability of farmland is in fact only a secondary reason for the extraordinary growth in Brazilian agriculture. If you want the primary reason in three words, they are Embrapa, Embrapa, Embrapa.” The Economist, August 28th 2010