1. Sorsogon City Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Validation with Stakeholders 2 December 2008

2.  Refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or because of human activity

5. Possible Effects of Climate Change

12. Average Annual Impact (Phils.)  1,025 Deaths  835 Injuries  252,915 People Displaced  P8 Billion Worth of Damages

13. Cyclone Milenyo (2006)  27,100 Families or 159,311 Persons Affected  17,114 Partially Damaged Houses and 10,070 Totally Damaged Houses (P1.27B)  Agriculture & Fisheries Damage: P234M  Public Infrastructure Damage: P208M  Damage to Business: P500M

14. Climate Change Findings Global (IPCC) National (PINCCC) Sorsogon  Average surface temperature increased by 0.74 o C (1960-2005)  Global average sea level rose (due to increase in average surface temperature) at an average of 1.8 mm per year over 1961-2003  Projected increases for further warming from 1.4 o C to 5.8 o C during the 21 st century leading further increase in sea level projected from 18-59 cm in 2010 and from 1 m to 2 m (worst case) at the end of the 21 st century  Projected increase of an average of 2 to 3 o C temperature  60 to 100 % increase in annual rainfall for Central Visayas and Southern Tagalog  increasing trend in annual mean sea level since 1970’s from the tidal gauge stations in the country including the one in Legaspi Albay  stronger and more frequent tropical cyclone ?

15. Sorsogon City Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment! “ to validate City exposure to climate change impact and define its sensitivities and adaptive capacities”

16. V&A Assessment Process  Formation of Technical Working Group  Definition and agreement on objective and framework  Localizing of climate change scenario/exposure  Assessment of sensitivities (hotspots!)  Ground truthing of findings thru FGDs with communities

17. Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario  Risk is Very High on combined risks to typhoons, drought caused by El Nino, projected rainfall change and projected temperature increase according to the DENR/Manila Observatory data

18. Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario 1. Tropical Cyclones  The city is situated in the country’s geographical zone 6 where at least 3 cyclones every two years pass (PINCCC)  2006 super typhoons Milenyo and Reming devastated the city

19. Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario 2. Temperature Change :  2-3 degrees centigrade increase in temperature 3. Increased Precipitation  50% increase in annual rainfall 4. Sea Level Rise  Increasing trend in annual mean sea level occurred since 1970

20. Sensitivity to Tropical Cyclones/Storm Surge City Center

21. Sensitivity to Flooding and Land Slide City Center Flooding Landslide

22. Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise Urban and Urbanizing Barangays threatened with SLR City Center

23. Barangay Sirangan

24. Sirangan simulated with SLR of 0.5m

25. Sirangan simulated with SLR of 1.0m

26. Sirangan simulated with SLR of 2m

27. Sensitivity: City Hotspots HOTSPOT S Storm Surge & SLR Flooding Land Slide

28. Sensitivity: City Hotspots BarangayClassificationLand Area (Ha)Population BalogoUrban 152.85 5251 Bitan-O Urban19.20 3028 Cabid-an Urban223.56 5426 Cambulaga Urbanizing37.10 4097 Piot Urban65.96 2572 Sampaloc Urban12.58 5214 Sirangan Urban4.96 2491 Talisay Urban12.40 2660 Poblacion Urban174.51 4882 Sto. NinoRural 385.13 2008 OsiaoRural 1015.66 2721 GimalotoRural 143 907

29. Consequences Affected Sectors Impacts - Sea level - Temperature - Precipitation - Extreme Events GovernanceSettlementsAgricultureFishingHealthInfrastructure Transport & Energy Air & Water quallity Increased Diseases Lower Water availability Increased Flooding Increased cooling demand Increased migration of people Inundation of coasts Economic disruptions Livelihoods and Food security Increase energy loads

30. Findings, Implications and Challenges HOTSPOT S

31. Findings, Implications and Challenges Governance and Development Programming  The land use plan must be revisited considering the projected risks were found in the built environment (hotspots).  There are also hotspots in the Agricultural (Osiao and Sto. Nino) and Mangrove areas (Gimaloto). This would have implications on the existing city agri and environment programs.  The city has not considered yet the risks areas and climate change impacts into its physical development planning.  Data and information management needs to be developed (GIS, Knowledge Management)

32. Findings, Implications and Challenges Governance and Disaster Risk Management: - Need to strengthen CDCC and BDCC including coordination systems with the Provincial and Regional levels - Integration of climate change and DRM in the development planning of the City - Enhancing preparedness and mitigation

33. Findings, Implications and Challenges Governance and Institutional Coordination: - Given the complexities of City CC sensitivity, the different tiers of local government and other stakeholders need to improve coordination and collaboration mechanisms - Support of private sector (from within and outside the city) in Climate Risk Management is still very limited thus needs strengthening

34. Findings, Implications and Challenges Settlements/Built-Up Area: Most of the Hotspots are host to major commercial and residential areas  Most of the Hotspots are host to major commercial and residential areas  total population in the hotspots is 41,257 where 35,621 is at the urban and urbanizing barangays  informal settlers are located in the shorelines of the hotspots LocationRemarks SiranganAlong the shoreline and on Delgado Street. TalisayAlong the shoreline of Sorsogon Bay. SampalocAlong shorelines and on private lot. SalogAlong riverbanks, on City lot and Provincial lot Bitan-oOn private lands Maharlika Highway, Provincial and City Roads Along the road and portion of the road-right-of- way SubdivisionsIn open spaces of Sts. Peter and Paul Subdivision

35. Vulnerable to flooding 36.6% 24% Vulnerable to multiple hazards 22,000+ women at risk

36. Findings, Implications and Challenges  Poverty Incidence: 43%  Given increased precipitation and flooding in some areas, urban slums are at high risk to climate related diseases and illnesses.  Increased salinity of source of drinking in some areas  Limited knowledge on climate change was emphasized during FGDs with communities  A large number of housing structures in the hotspots are made light materials while the protective community structure (sea wall) is aging, damaged, and needs repair

37. Community FGD (Sirangan & Poblacion)

38. Community FGD (Talisay & Cambulaga)

39. Findings, Implications and Challenges  Agriculture: 2,482 has. of rice paddies tilled by 3,313 farmers and 9,930 has. of coconut areas managed by 7,272 farmers are vulnerable to tropical cyclones  Most vulnerable areas are located in the 9 hot-spots (211 farmers tilling 205.75 ha.)  Agri sector needs preparedness and adaptation measures based on its vulnerabilities and seasonalities and enhancing its economic base opportunities for the city

40. Rice Variety/BreedResiliency Type  IR 64  PSB Rc18  PSB Rc 76H  IR 42 Adaptable to excessive rain water and flooding. Also classified as tall varieties.  PSB Rc16  PSB Rc24  PSB Rc70  UPL Ri7  UPL Ri5 Less water/drought, dry seeded varieties and also suitable for upland and rainfed type of farming.  PSB Rc8  PSb Rc6 Short stand varieties, more resilient to strong winds

41. Findings, Implications and Challenges  Vulnerable fishing communities are the ones using conventional fishing and the green mussel producers  There are 1,291 fisherfolks and 211 fish vendors in the 9 hot-spot areas  Need to develop complementing and adaptive livelihood activities to reduce their vulnerability

42. THANK YOU VERY MUCH!