1. WWW.PTV.DE Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Germany Peter Vortisch, Volker Waßmuth, PTV AG, Germany

2. © PTV AG 2007 2 VALIDATE – A Transport Model for Germany > A nationwide model for Germany (82 million residents) > Hourly volumes on roads > Should use as many public (or commercial) digital data as possible > Should be easy to update > Applications > Regional and nationwide forecasts > Traffic volumes for the set up of billboards > Travel time estimation for navigation systems

3. © PTV AG 2007 3 > Representing Germany and the surrounding European countries > 1.4 million links > About 7.000 traffic zones > 9 trip purposes > 21 person groups > auto and truck traffic > quasi-dynamic assignment (time-of-day volumes) VALIDATE at a glance

4. © PTV AG 2007 4 Road Network Processing > Initial German Navteq network consists of ca. 6 million links > Removing minor roads > Generalization: removing two-leg node > Automated, reversible and repeatable process > Mapping of Navteq attributes to assignment relevant attributes > Adding a reduced European network > Finally 1.4 million links

5. © PTV AG 2007 5 Traffic Zones > ca. 10,000 residents per zone > 5 to 12 connectors per zone > Finally 7,000 zones (refinement to 10,000 ongoing)

6. © PTV AG 2007 6 Land Use Data > National and regional population statistics > 85,000 market analysis zones > commercially available > Inhabitants > Employment by industry > Buying power > Additionally > schools, universities > special attractors (fun parks etc.)

7. © PTV AG 2007 7 Survey data German nationwide travel behavior surveys > MiD 2002 (“Mobility in Germany”) > 62,000 persons > 183,000 trips > SrV (2003) > 34,000 persons

8. © PTV AG 2007 8 No. of car trips for different purposes Home-Work18.1 million Home-Business6.5 million Home-Shopping12.0 million Home-Other20.5 million Work-Home13.1 million Business-Home8.9 million Shopping-Home13.9 million Other-Home21.7 million Other- 27.6 million Total: 142.2 million > trip generation by the EVA-Model (Prof. Lohse, University of Dresden) > simultaneous destination and mode choice

9. © PTV AG 2007 9 Regional distribution of trips No of trips / km²

10. © PTV AG 2007 10 Road Traffic Assignment (24 h, static) RGap = 0.005 after 12 h computing time

11. © PTV AG 2007 11 Calibration of the model > 2000 permanent counting points from BAST (Federal institute for roads) > additional survey points from different sources > % RMSE = 23%

12. © PTV AG 2007 12 Validation: Mean Trip distances

13. © PTV AG 2007 13 Time-of-Day Trip Demand

14. © PTV AG 2007 14 Time-of-day (quasi-dynamic) assignment ADT assignment peak hour (7 a.m. – 8 a.m.) > method similar to the Duration based static assignment presented by David Pickworth

15. © PTV AG 2007 15 Result: Time-of-day traffic volumes (video)

16. © PTV AG 2007 16 Validation: Comparision of volume time profiles (video sequence of 100 count locations)

17. © PTV AG 2007 17 Application: Traffic volumes in Germany 2020 ACATECH forecast 2020: > Mileage (private cars) + 20 % (+30% on highways) > Mileage (HGV) + 34% (+45% on highways) > Mileage (all vehicles) + 21% (+33% on highways) compared to 2002 increase decrease

18. © PTV AG 2007 18 Application: Impact Studies Example: Effect of Toll on the A4 (Eisenach)

19. © PTV AG 2007 19 Application: Accessibility depending on day and time Access Mon 10 a.m. green: < 1:00 h red: >3:00 h

20. © PTV AG 2007 20 Validate Network UK 11/2006 Directional Links 630708 Zones 8105 Connectors 29531

21. © PTV AG 2007 21 Thank you for your attention ! PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 76131 Karlsruhe WWW.PTV.DE Contact infomation: peter.vortisch@ptv.de volker.wassmuth@ptv.de

22. © PTV AG 2007 22 Additional data - Commuter trip tables > from the German Federal Employment Agency > ca. 14000x14000 cells

23. © PTV AG 2007 23 Trip Generation Model > EVA-model developed by Prof. Lohse, University of Dresden > simultaneous destination and mode choice for origin-destination groups

24. © PTV AG 2007 24 Deviation of counted and calculated daily volumes % RSME = 23 % (2000 count locations) RGAP = 0.005 after 12 hours of computation

25. © PTV AG 2007 25 Outlook Applications: > GPS navigation (automotive and personal, on-board or off-board or hybrid) > Traffic information services > Route planning portals > Logistics and fleet management > Geomarketing > Urban, environmental and transportation planning Further Development: > Coverage of entire Europe > Extension to 365 days > Forecast for events

26. © PTV AG 2007 26 Need for hourly volumes on specific days hour day volume