1. Best laid plans: a case study of an evolving natural experimental study in physical activity and the environment David Ogilvie 1,2 Jenna Panter 1,2 David Humphreys 2 Andy Jones 2,3 Roger Mackett 4 Simon Griffin 1,2 1 MRC Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge 2 UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR) 3 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia 4 Centre for Transport Studies, University of London Joint CEDAR-ISAG scientific meeting, 24 January 2012

5. Scientific uncertainty regarding effects Not feasible to do a true experiment Possible to obtain relevant data Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability — MRC guidance (2011) When should we do them?

7. Scientific uncertainty regarding effects Not feasible to do a true experiment Possible to obtain relevant data Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability When should we do them?

8. Scientific uncertainty regarding effects Not feasible to do a true experiment Possible to obtain relevant data Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

10. Scientific uncertainty regarding effects Not feasible to do a true experiment Possible to obtain relevant data Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

13. Scientific uncertainty regarding effects Not feasible to do a true experiment Possible to obtain relevant data Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

14. BUSWAY

15. MacDonald et al., Am J Prev Med (2010)

16. BUSWAY

18. Scientific uncertainty regarding effects Not feasible to do a true experiment Possible to obtain relevant data Potential for replication, scalability or generalisability

19. “ I hurt myself quite badly and now my wife won’t let me cycle in town, she says it’s too dangerous” [Cycling] is probably the most dangerous thing I do but well I read the statistics and it’s more dangerous not to cycle from the health point of view!

20. Ogilvie et al. Commuting and health in Cambridge: a study of a ‘natural experiment’ in the provision of new transport infrastructure. BMC Public Health 2010 Panter et al. Correlates of time spent walking and cycling to and from work. IJBNPA 2011 Guell et al. Towards a differentiated understanding of travel behaviour: using social theory to explore everyday commuting. Submitted to Soc Sci Med Papers in progress

21. Goodman et al. Healthy travel in a car-oriented environment: the socio-economic structure of car commuting in Cambridge. Submitted to Soc Sci Med Yang et al. Associations between active commuting and physical activity in working adults. Submitted to Prev Med Guell et al. Walking and cycling to work despite reporting an unsupportive environment: a mixed-method exploration of potential mechanisms. Submitted to IJBNPA Papers in progress

22. Guell and Ogilvie. Picturing ‘healthy’ commuting: photo voice and seeking well-being in everyday travel. Final draft for Qual Health Res Panter et al. Correlates of reported and recorded time spent in physical activity. Final draft for Am J Prev Med Jones and Ogilvie. What motivates active commuting? Exploring changes in travel behaviour following relocation. Final draft for IJBNPA Papers in progress

23. Panter et al. Why do people combine walking or cycling with other modes of transport? Measuring and understanding active travel on the journey to work Dalton et al. The influence of location and accessibility on modal choice for travel to work Carse et al. Can the bicycle compete with the car? The case of Cambridge Yang et al. Feasibility of rapid but precise baseline assessment of physical activity in a commuting population Papers in progress

24. Tully et al. Using Walk Score to predict walking in employed UK adults Tully et al. Comparison of the Recent Physical Activity Questionnaire with objectively measured physical activity to classify physical activity level Humphreys et al. The association between active commuting and physical and mental wellbeing Carse et al. Children’s active travel in Cambridge: examining the relationship between parents’ and children’s travel behaviour Papers in progress

25. “ I hurt myself quite badly and now my wife won’t let me cycle in town, she says it’s too dangerous” [Cycling] is probably the most dangerous thing I do but well I read the statistics and it’s more dangerous not to cycle from the health point of view!

26. Cornelia Guell et al. Walking and cycling to work despite reporting an unsupportive environment: a mixed-method exploration of potential mechanisms

27. Anna Goodman et al. Healthy travel in a car- oriented environment: the socio-economic structure of car commuting in Cambridge Jenna Panter et al. Why do people combine walking or cycling with other modes of transport? Measuring and understanding active travel on the journey to work

28. Cornelia Guell et al. Walking and cycling to work despite reporting an unsupportive environment: a mixed-method exploration of potential mechanisms Anna Goodman et al. Healthy travel in a car- oriented environment: the socio-economic structure of car commuting in Cambridge Jenna Panter et al. Why do people combine walking or cycling with other modes of transport? Measuring and understanding active travel on the journey to work Caroline Jones and David Ogilvie. What motivates active commuting? Exploring changes in travel behaviour following relocation

31. Emily Hall Assistant study coordinator Fiona Whittle Study coordinator Wing Wong Data manager

32. Credits Wider research team Simon Cohn Natalia Jones Anna Goodman Lin Yang David Humphreys Mark Tully James Smith Investigators David Ogilvie Simon Griffin Andy Jones Roger Mackett Core research team Jenna Panter Cornelia Guell Caroline Jones Alice Dalton Andrew Carse Study operations Cheryl Chapman Wing Wong Rupesh Ghelani Andrew Dymond Fiona Whittle Emily Hall

33. Acknowledgments This study was initially funded under the auspices of the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. The study is now funded by the National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme (project number 09/3001/06). The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NIHR PHR programme, the NHS or the Department of Health.