1. How to Conduct Systematic Political Research
Merits of methodology
How to Conduct Systematic Political Research

2. Lecture Structure Aims Methods of Comparison Single Case Study
Using Quantitative Literature
Applying a Theory vs. Discursive Method

3. Methods of Comparison

4. Methodology Definition:
A body of methods, rules, and postulates employed by a discipline: a particular procedure or set of procedures.
The analysis of the principles of inquiry in a particular field.
(Merriam-Webster Dictionary)

5. Questions addressed in this course
How should we study conflict?
What causes conflict?
Who participates in conflict?
How do people behave during conflict?
What are the consequences of conflict?
How do we evaluate conflict?

6. Comparing Literature
What is the key similarity between Mamdani (2001) and Collier & Hoeffler (2004)?

7. Comparing Literature Mamdani (2001) Collier and Hoeffler (2004)
Rwandan genocide
1994
Qualitative evidence
Collier and Hoeffler (2004)
Civil conflicts
Quantitative evidence

8. Methods of Comparison
Three basic approaches to answering a research question:
Large-N: > 50 cases.
Small-N: 2-20 cases.
Single case study: 1 case.
N = number of cases/observations.

9. Small-n (aka ‘comparative method’)
Cases are intentionally selected in order to establish ‘control.’
Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD).
Similar cases.
Different outcome.
Most Different Systems Design (MDSD).
Different cases.
Same outcome.

10. Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD)
Which cases would you use to investigate the link between ethnic tensions and civil war, using this research design?

11. Most Different Systems Design (MDSD)
Which cases would you use to investigate the link between ethnic tensions and civil war, using this research design?

12. Single Case Study

13. What is a Single-Country Study?
“any study in which a single country forms the basic unit of analysis, but which may also be broken down into smaller units across time and space...” (Landman, 2000: 86)
N = 1

14. What is a Case Study? Single observation/case: N = 1 Time Space
Level of Analysis
N = 1

15. Functions of a Case Study
Classification.
Contextual description.
Hypothesis generation.
Theory testing:
Most likely study.
Least likely study.
Outliers.
Process tracing.

16. Limitations of Single Case Studies
Limited scope/generalisability.
Selection bias.

17. Further Reading
Landman, Todd Issues and Methods in Comparative Politics: An Introduction. London: Routledge.

18. Quantitative Literature

19. Regression Analysis (1/2)

20. Characteristics of Quantitative Literature
Large-N
Empirical data
Statistical techniques

21. Large-n How many observations are examined in
Collier and Hoeffler (2004)?

22. Collier & Hoeffler’s dataset by the numbers
98 countries
79 civil conflicts
divided into 5-year periods
750 observations

23. Concepts in this Course
Authority and coercion;
Structural violence and deadly force;
Conflict and war;
Positive and negative peace;
Peacemaking;
Peacekeeping;
Peace enforcement;
Peacebuilding;
The military; and
Militarism.

24. Concept v. Variable Concept = abstract.
Variable = observable/measurable.

25. How do we measure the following concepts?
Conflict
Democracy
Ethnic tension
Inequality

26. Statistical Techniques
Used to look for patterns between variables.
Correlation: relationship between two variables.
Correlation is not the same as causation!
Example: ice cream and summer.

27. Natural Resources and Conflict

28. Regression Adds a line of best fit to the observed result.
Regression analysis therefore measures the extent to which independent variables predict the dependent variable.

29. Regression Analysis (1/2)

30. Regression Analysis (2/2)

31. Terminology Significance Levels
Regressor/Predictor/Independent Variable
P-values
Confidence intervals

32. Limitations Cannot prove causation.
Limited interpretive ability (i.e. explaining why these relationships exist).
Use of proxies.

33. Analysing Collier & Hoeffler (2004)
Q: Does natural resource prevalence explain the onset of civil conflict?
Steps to follow:
How did they operationalise and measure these concepts.
Do these proxies make sense? Is there correlation? In other words – what do we see happening to the likelihood of conflict variable when we look at different natural resource/GDP values.
Ask how much we should read into the correlation. Ask the students here what might make us more or less likely to find one of the correlations important or suggestive of a causal relationship.

34. Theory and Your Research

35. Applying Theory Systematically
Logic of theory
Language that a theory demands
Units of analysis
Consistency through the paper
Acknowledging limitations

36. Referring to Theory as Evidence
Not constrained by the logic of the theory
Used to add to understanding, or to hold theory up to criticism or praise
Can compare explanations offered by different theories