1. Economic Development and Research Center NGO Armenian Budget Analysis Project The RA State Budget for 2004 Summary Yerevan January 2004 Prepared by Gagik Torosyan

2. The Law “On RA State Budget for 2004” is adopted by RA National Assembly on December 25, 2003 with votes 96 for, 6 against and 0 abstained. The law entered into force on January 19, 2004 after its publication in RA Official Bulletin, No. 4(303). In a contrast to the previous budgets, The Law “On RA State Budget for 2004” does not specify the structure projected tax revenues by type of main taxes. In a contrast to the previous budget, Law “On RA State Budget for 2004” does not present the details of education, health and social sectors budgets General Notes

3. 20022003200420052006 actualprojectedforecasts Nominal GDP (bil. AMD) 13571537.51694.418502019.8 Real GDP growth (%) 12.910766 Nominal GDP (mil. USD) 2366.626492875.33123.93393.5 Inflation (average, %) 1.14.3333 Exchange Rate (dram/dollar, average) 573.4580.4589.3592.2595.2 Total State Budget revenues/GDP (%) 16.818.716.217.217.4 State budget tax revenues and duties/GDP (%) 14.614.615.115.415.8 Total State budget expenditures /GDP (%) 19.421.718.719.319.3 State budget deficit/GDP (%) 2.63.12.52.11.9 Forecasts of the Macroeconomic Environment as per the Budget Message for 2004

4. RA Consolidated Budget for 2004 is approved as follows: Revenueside - 334.7 bil. dram Revenue side - 334.7 bil. dram Expenditure side - 377.6 bil. dram Deficit - 42.9 bil. dram

5. RA communities budget 23.1 State social insurance fund budget 68.3 RA central bank expenditures (estimates) 13.2 State real estate cadastre committee expenditures (estimates) 1.5 Bil. dram In the Law “On RA State Budget for 2004”, the National Assembly also approved:

6. RA State Budget for 2004 is approved as follows: Revenue side - 274.1 bil. dram Expenditure side - 317.0 bil. dram Deficit - 42.9 bil. dram

7. RA State Budget Revenues and Official Grants for 2004 State budget revenues and grants 274.1 Current revenues 262.5 Tax revenues 242.6 State duty 14.5 Non-tax revenues 5.4 Revenues from capital transactions 0.7 of which: from sale of the state owned land parcels located in Yerevan city: 0.3 Grants10.9 Bil. dram

8. Structure of State Budget Revenues and Official Grants in 2004

9. Budget Deficit Financing by Sources in 2004 Deficit financing 42.91 Domestic Financing 5.27 Government’s securities 5.27 T-bills5.30 Redemption of promissory notes -0.006 Redemption of other government bills -0.025 Other domestic sources 0 External sources 37.65 Disbursement of Loans 45.65 Amortization of loans-8.0 Bil. dram

10. The RA State Budget Total Expenditures for 2004 is 317.04 billion dram, of which Current expenditures 244.12 Wages22.79 Interest payments 13.23 Subsidies14.09 Current transfers 49.83 Expenditures on purchase of goods and services 144.17 Capital expenditures 61.60 Net lending 11.31 Bil. dram

11. Structure of Current Expenditures of State Budget

12. Total expenditures 317.04 317.04100.0% Social-cultural sector 111.7235.2% Defense, public order and national security 74.70 74.7023.6% Economic sectors 67.47 67.4721.3% State debt service 13.23 13.234.2% Foreign economic activity and assistance 17.43 17.435.5% Reserve fund 3.62 3.621.1% Dotation to communities 10.70 10.703.4% State Budget Expenditures by Sectors in 2004 Bil. dram

13. State Budget Financing of Education and Science 2004 Change against 2003 Budget Bil. dram Percent Total 42.06 42.0620% 7.15 7.15 Public administration in the education and science sector 0.19 0.1960% 0.07 0.07 Elementary, primary and secondary education 29.22 29.2227% 6.20 6.20 General specialized education 2.43 2.4321% 0.41 0.41 Out-of-school education 0.71 0.715% 0.03 0.03 Preliminary professional (vocational) education 0.36 0.3616% 0.05 0.05 Professional education 1.21 1.214% 0.05 0.05 Higher and post-higher professional education 3.89 3.89-3% (0.12) (0.12) Additional education 0.73 0.7315% 0.10 0.10 Science 3.32 3.3212% 0.36 0.36

14. 2004 Change against 2003 Budget Bil. dram Percent Total 25.01 25.0119% 4.00 4.00 Public administration in the health sector 0.50 0.50116% 0.27 0.27 Hospital healthcare 12.92 12.9211% 1.30 1.30 Primary healthcare 8.72 8.7224% 1.70 1.70 Sanitary – anti-epidemic services 1.00 1.0071% 0.42 0.42 Other healthcare services and programs 1.87 1.8721% 0.32 0.32 Health Sector Financing from State Budget

15. Social Insurance and Social Security Sector Financing from State Budget 2004 Change against 2003 Budget Bil. Dram Percent Total 36.45 36.4518% 5.63 5.63 Public administration in social insurance and social security sector 0.65 0.6581% 0.29 0.29 Pensions from the state budget 13.52 13.5217% 1.99 1.99 State allowances 17.01 17.0125% 3.38 3.38 Social insurance measures 2.5216%0.35 Other social programs 2.75 2.75-12% (0.38) (0.38)

16. Change against 2003 Budget (bil. dram) 2004 Annual Plan (bil. dram) 2004 Annual Plan (bil. dram) State allowances 3.38 3.38 17.01 17.01 Foreign economic assistance 4.00 4.00 11.12 11.12 Defense 5.30 5.30 49.63 49.63 Elementary, primary and secondary education 6.20 6.20 29.22 29.22 Programs for which the 2004 budget will allocate at least 2.5 billion dram more as compared to the 2003 budget

17. Change against 2003 Budget (bil. dram) 2004 Annual Plan (bil. dram) 2004 Annual Plan (bil. dram) Housing (14.56) (14.56) 2.24 2.24 Water supply and sewerage system (2.95) (2.95) 11.10 11.10 Fish breeding and water management (2.64) (2.64) 2.21 2.21 Road management (19.46) (19.46) 14.88 14.88 Art (7.50) (7.50) 1.20 1.20 Other expenditure programs not classified in the main group (13.06) (13.06) 6.19 6.19 Programs for which the 2004 budget will allocate at least 2.5 billion dram less as compared to the 2003 budget

18. About EDRC Economic Development and Research Center is a non-profit and politically unaffiliated organization established in 2001 in Yerevan, Armenia. It is dedicated to addressing the economic and social challenges that Armenia faces. The mission of EDRC is to promote economic and social development, to influence policymaking and to raise public awareness of economic, social and demographic issues. EDRC focuses on supporting economic freedom and democracy as decisive conditions for the successful development of the Armenia economy. Believing that the future growth of Armenia requires transparent processes in government and society, EDRC promotes these ideas as well as fosters mutual understanding between countries. EDRC believes that poverty is one of the main obstacles on the way of successful and sustainable growth in Armenia and this the reason why EDRC is actively engaged in the development of poverty reduction national strategy. One of the recent accomplishments of EDRC in this area its,,Policy Choice for Poverty Reduction,, (PCPR) project, which aimed at assisting Armenian authorities and Civil Society through developments of policy recommendations for poverty reduction. The project was supported pored by Oxfam GB and served as a contribution of EDRC and Oxfam GB in development of PRSP on Armenia. Within the framework of PCPR,,Growth with Equity,, research paper was published in May 2002, where the main findings of EDRC in pro-poor growth targeting and policy-making were presented. The contribution of EDRC is also recognized in the use of its economic forecasting models in the PRSP draft. In particular two models of EDRC were presented:, MAGMA,, (Macroeconomic Adjustment and Growth Model for Armenia) for medium and long- term forecasts of macroeconomic indicators, which allows to assess the impact of various scenarios of economic growth; and “Growth and Distribution Model “ for assessment of impact of various policies on income distribution and on the incidence poverty. “Armenian Budget Analysis” Project With cooperation of Oxfam GB and DFID, EDRC is implementing “Armenian Budget Analysis” Project (ABA Project). The objective of ABA Project is the assessment of the Central and Local Government's fiscal activities in order to evaluate their consistency with the main logic of poverty reduction general strategy. Budgets are being tested to identify the current degree of authority’s pro-poor policies. The outcome of the Project is a set of analytical and informational materials, prepared by EDRC, which serve as guides for large groups of population in their better and more comprehensive understandings of current policies of the state and communities. These materials include also professional analysis of budget and policies. In the scope of the project seminars, roundtables and workshops are organized. The implementation of the project will promote emergence of public demand for adequate social and economic policies, and enhance larger public participation in policy development process. “Economic Development and Research Center” NGO, Address: Str. Mamikonyants 48, Building I, Yerevan Republic of Amenia Telephone: (3741) 23 44 20 Telephone: (3741) 23 44 20 (3741) 54 02 89 (3741) 54 02 89 Fax: (3741) 23 65 89 Fax: (3741) 23 65 89 E-mail: info@edrc.am info@edrc.am Website : http://www.edrc.am http://www.edrc.am